Long-term Estimates of U.S. Productivity and Growth by Dale W. Jorgenson, Mun S. Ho, and Jon D. Samuels Harvard University, and BEA The views expressed.

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Presentation transcript:

Long-term Estimates of U.S. Productivity and Growth by Dale W. Jorgenson, Mun S. Ho, and Jon D. Samuels ** Harvard University, and ** BEA The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U.S. Department of Commerce. World KLEMS Conference 2014 Tokyo, Japan May 19-20, 2014

Agenda -63-year Economic History, The Sources of Growth -Divide into 3 sub-periods: Post-war Recovery The Long Slump Information Age and Recession -Transformation of capital input; IT capital and TFP -Educational attainment of workers; evolution of wage premium -Effect of 2007 Financial Crisis

Pillai (SCB 2011) Tech. Progress in Microprocessor Indus.

THE ROLE OF INNOVATION Total Factor Productivity IT-Producing, IT-Using and Non-IT Industries Reallocation of Factor Inputs Capital Input and Labor Input Aggregate Productivity Growth Industry Productivity and Factor Reallocations

Contributions of Individual Industries to Productivity Growth,

SOURCES OF U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH Contribution of Capital Input IT and Non-IT Capital Contribution of Labor Input College educated and Non-college Contribution of Productivity Replication vs. Innovation

The Evolution of Labor Input. More Information Technology and more Educated workers

- Historically, input growth in the major source of growth, in the New Economy TFP contribution has jumped. - Unusual high TFP growth during the Jobless Recovery period of low investment and growth - Effect of Financial Crisis. * IT-Production productivity relatively unchanged. * Big fall in productivity of non-IT group leading to negative aggregate TFP. SUMMARY

Extra slides

Highlighting the role of Information Technology Divide industries into 3 groups: 1)IT producing 2)IT-intensive using 3)non-IT intensive using IT-intensity index is the ratio of IT capital input plus IT intermediates to total capital input plus IT intermediates:

Classification of Industries (IT Intensity 2005)

Growth of Value Added and Productivity Following graphs show contribution by the 3 industry groups to the growth of aggregate value added (GDP from PPF):

Classification of Industries (IT Intensity 2005)

Industry Contributions to Value Added Growth;

Total Factor Productivity For industry j and IT-groups: Aggregate Productivity Growth Domar-weighted Industry Productivity and Factor Reallocations ROLE OF TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY

Industry Contributions to Aggregate TFP Growth,

PROJECTING PRODUCTIVITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH Contribution of Industry Groups to Productivity Growth Range of Labor Productivity Growth Projections Range of Potential Output Projections