Click to edit Master subtitle style Drivers of Energy Future in the Mekong Region: Prospective Development Paths Jyrki Luukkanen

Contents  Drivers behind the energy use increase in the Mekong region  Solutions?

Drivers behind the energy use increase in Mekong region  Industrialisation  The economic structure is changing from agricultural production to industrial production  Energy use per GDP grows with industrialisation

Industrialization  Globalization with transfer of heavy and polluting industry to developing countries  Will Laos be the battery for Mekong Region and global provider of minerals and metals  Will Cambodia be garment provider

 Urbanisation  Energy consumption structure will change  Larger share of commercial, often fossil based energy  Increased education among younger population drives urbanisation  Increased mobility  Shift to market economy: ”Households are more reliant on self-employment and wage labour and less reliant on agriculture and common property resources (CPR), including fisheries and forests (MOPS Cambodia, WB)”  Urbanisation Energy consumption structure will change Larger share of commercial, often fossil based energy Increased education among younger population drives urbanisation Increased mobility Shift to market economy: ”Households are more reliant on self-employment and wage labour and less reliant on agriculture and common property resources (CPR), including fisheries and forests (MOPS Cambodia, WB)”

Transport energy %

Shift to fossil energy

Solutions?  Energy saving – reduction of energy end use  Improved stoves  Energy saving lamps  More efficient cooling systems  Improved house construction  Urban planning  Improved energy technology

Solutions?  Renewable energy  Solar, biomass, wind, hydro  In many cases the large investment cost is a problem  Should the developing country people reduce CO2 when we are not ready to reduce?

Solutions? (cont.)  Democracy  Basis for sustainable development  Incorporation of different groups in decision making  Ownership of energy development  No one best solution  Integrated approach  Dimensions of sustainability: Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental, Political and Values

Finnish development aid policy?  Aid projects should not mess the local market situation  Aid should be based on coherent strategy determined by the local government  Aid should combine energy projects with other livelihood improvement projects  Aid should take into account the long term perspective (poverty reduction) and short term income generation perspective to be sustainable

Thank you Jyrki Luukkanen Tulevaisuuden tutkimuskeskus Turun kauppakorkeakoulu