Forecasting Development Project The MoJ CJ Modelling Landscape OR CJ Special Interest Group Forecasting and Model Development Unit (FMDU) November 2011

OFFENDER MANAGEMENT The Forecasting and Modelling Development Unit has created a blueprint for Criminal Justice Modelling. The Criminal Justice Workload Projections workstream aims to work towards this blueprint. Projected resource implications will feed medium-term financial plans. Financial plans of non-operational areas and shared services will also feed in. Detailed Workload Models for all MoJ operations will project Output/Performance and Resource on the basis of common caseload forecasts/ assumptions. DRIVER-BASED CASELOAD FORECASTING FRAMEWORKS LEGAL AID GROUPS OF DETAILED WORKLOAD MODELS CIVILFAMILYCRIMINAL ADMINISTRATIVE COURTS & TRIBUNALS OTHER OPERATIONAL AGENCIES O R O/P FORWARD PLANNING MODEL: MEDIUM TERM FINANCIAL PLANS O/P R R R Other Financial Plans: HQ functions Non-operational arms-length bodies Shared services LONG TERM PLANNING MODELS MoJ Staffing Model MoJ Estates Model Judicial Workforce Model “Adaptor plugs” turn high level trends into detailed short-term agency caseload forecasts.

The Forecasting and Modelling Development Unit has created a blueprint for Criminal Justice Modelling. The Criminal Justice Workload Projections workstream aims to work towards this blueprint. NOMS & YJB CRIMINAL LEGAL AID CRIMINAL HMCTS O R O/P RR Re- offending Models NOMS OF Estates Model FPM NOMS OF Charged Defendants Part of a later workstream Mags Workload Courts and Sentencing Crown Workload Estates Model FPM Parole Probation Prison

The Criminal Justice Workload Projections workstream will provide a consistent and coherent platform for policy development and planning, driven by new projections of demand For the first time… Offender Management models will be linked Workload projections for OM will reflect the impact of the courts Internal projections will be consistent with published projections Official baseline projections mean operational and financial planners can be confident they are working from the same starting assumptions The suite of models can be used to…. estimate policy impacts on baseline demand & assess consequences for the courts and OM evaluate outcomes by tracking volumes against the pre-implementation baseline NOMS OF Charged Defendants Part of a later workstream Mags Workload Courts and Sentencing Crown Workload Estates Model FPM Parole Probation Prison

Charged defendants are modelled because they represent the entry point to the MoJ part of the CJS Charged/Summonsed Defendants BCS Recorded CrimeNon-recordable Crime TIC, PND, FPN, Restorative Justice, Cautions Charged/summonsed Underlying Volume Trend and seasonality (favoured over regression because of the dominance of policy impacts and lack of long-run time series data in last 10 years) External Capacity (Police, CPS) Policy with a timetable for implementation Home Office and CPS capacity assumptions dealt with through “no change” in disposal mix. The landscape could be used to evaluate the impact of different scenarios at this stage No MoJ policy impacts in 2011 demand baseline.

The courts and sentencing adaptor plug converts high level projections into the detailed inputs needed for models of Offender Management The adaptor… Provides breakdowns of the offender population by age and gender Takes into account the impact of the courts on the flow of offenders through the CJS Provides a transparent mechanism to account for differences in court and offender management data sets Provides sentencing outcomes Can show impact of “current level” and “current trend” in demographic/ sentencing splits on projections Part of a later workstream Mags Court Workload Model Courts and Sentencing Module Crown Court Workload Model

The prisons model is a stock-flow model which outputs prison population and flows into and out of prison. Flows are important because they carry cost implications for NOMS and because they are needed for forecasting Probation and Parole Prison Projections Parole Projections Probation Projections Prison Population Receptions Average Time Served Discharges Probation Population Receptions = Prison Discharges for PRL Average Time Served Discharges Pre-Tariff Population Receptions Tariff Transfer Post-Tariff Population Parole Board Hearings

Going forward, the new suite of models will be transferred into BAU. The priority of work within the BAU regime is to be decided but will involve some of all of… Regular update of source data and modelling assumptions to provide up to date projections Monitoring of existing projections Use of models for scenario analysis work Improvement of existing models and development to fit the evolving CJ landscape Assessment of uncertainty attached to projections and key underlying sensitivities ANY QUESTIONS?