Professor John Handley Adapting the city: preparing for climate change in Greater Manchester Professor John Handley University of Manchester with Jeremy Carter, Gina Cavan, Angela Connelly, Simon Guy and Aleksandra Kazmierczak

Adapting the city: preparing for climate change in Greater Manchester John Handley with Jeremy Carter, Gina Cavan, Angela Connelly, Simon Guy and Aleksandra Kazmierczak

Presentation outline Global and European climate projections UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Towards a vulnerability and risk assessment framework Recent trends in climate and the climate projections for Greater Manchester Climate change risk and impact assessment Building adaptive capacity Ways forward and priority actions

Climate zones shift in a +4°C world Source: New, Liverman and Anderson, 2009

Climate change in Europe: high emissions scenario Source: EC Green Paper, 2007

UK Climate Change Risk Assessment “Potential climate risks in other parts of the world are thought to be much greater than those directly affecting the UK, but could have a significant indirect impact here. These risks include effects on global health, political stability and international supply chains.” Source: UK CCRA 2012 Potential to link to the workshops there with the last three points

Climate change adaptation “…adjustments in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities.” (IPCC 2007) EcoCities goal: to provide Greater Manchester with its first blueprint for an integrated climate change adaptation strategy, based on leading scientific research and extensive stakeholder engagement. Distinguish adaptation from mitigation Relates to human systems and natural environments Maximising the benefits of ‘positive’ impacts and limiting the impact of negative impacts Adaptation to current and potential future hazards Focusing on adaptation of human societies – adaptation of ecosystems is also crucial and there is an extensive literature on this, perhaps more comprehensive and thoroughly researched than the issue of human adaptation to climate change Key elements of the adaptation definition Mal-adaptation – climate relevant decisions taken without regard to impacts on capacity to adapt to impacts in the future – floodplain development, loss of greenspace, weakening of planning legislation – enhancing vulnerability to climate change Building Adaptive Capacity (BAC) involves developing the institutional capacity to respond effectively to climate change. This means compiling the information you need and creating the necessary regulatory, institutional and managerial conditions for adaptation actions to be undertaken. BAC activities include: • Gathering and sharing information (undertaking research, collecting and monitoring data, and raising awareness through education and training initiatives); • Creating a supportive institutional framework (changing standards, legislation, and best practice guidance, and developing appropriate policies, plans and strategies); • Creating supportive social structures (changing internal organisational systems, developing personnel, or other, resources to deliver the adaptation actions, and working in partnership). Degree to which ‘automatic’ adaptation can take place – awareness, political will, resources etc Adaptive capacity – reduced by impacts of climate hazards Importance of building adaptive capacity to delivering adaptation options Delivering Adaptation Actions (DAA) involves taking practical actions to either reduce vulnerability to climate risks, or to exploit positive opportunities. DAA can include: • Accepting the impacts, and bearing the losses that result from those risks (eg. manage retreat from sea level rise) • Off-setting losses by sharing or spreading the risks or losses (eg. through insurance, coordinated relief efforts) • Avoiding or reducing one’s exposure to, climate risks (eg. build new flood defences, or change location) • Exploit new opportunities (eg. engage in a new activity, or change practices to take advantage of changing climatic conditions). Living with and bearing losses or risks – accepting that pre-impact systems, behaviours and/or activities no longer can be sustained nor pursued or accepting the loss of assets as they are/will be no longer feasible or worth sustaining. > John Schellnhuber - Director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Preventing effects or reducing exposure to risks – these are associated with either relocating, changing what is exposed, or building climatic resilience with the objective of allowing pre-impact systems, behaviours and activities to continue but introducing measures to reduce exposure to the new/heightened risks. It also includes eliminating exposure to risks by changing to a different use or location. These types of strategies are often adopted where the assets at risk are so valuable that a living with risk strategy is unacceptable. Building resilience, however, does include living with risk. Measures adopted in this latter case involve minimising exposure to risks to a defined acceptable level through reducing the consequences of the resulting impacts and/or facilitating earlier and less costly recovery following exposure. Better preparedness and contingency planning are additional approaches that can prevent effects or reduce exposure to risks. Sharing responsibility for any losses or risks – reducing the financial and social losses or exposure to risk by use of insurance, sharing the associated costs of adaptive responses, and relief efforts (e.g., government, NGO or community relief efforts). Exploiting opportunities – changing use or location to exploit opportunities afforded by changes in climate and increasing capacity to manage opportunities resulting from changing climate. Measures considered under this strategy include introducing a new activity, behaviour, or species (crop) when pre-impact climate constraints no longer exist (or associated risks are no longer a limiting factor) as well as changing behaviour or practices to take advantage of more favourable climate conditions.

A framework for climate change risk and vulnerability assessment in urban areas Hazards Trends and Projections Heat waves Drought and floods Precipitation Sea level rise Adaptive Capacity Information and Resources Institutions and Governance Vulnerability City size and density Topography % of poor % of GDP A new vulnerability and risk management paradigm is emerging as a useful framework for enabling city decision makers to adapt to climate change Source: World Bank 2009; Urban Climate Change Research Network, 2011 Urban Climate Change Vulnerability and Risk Assessment Framework. Source: Rosenzweig et al. 2011. Climate Change and Cities First Assessment Report of the Urban Climate Change Research Network. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, p. xvi

Recent changes and trends in Greater Manchester’s climate Annual average daily mean temperature (°C) for 1961-1990 and 1971-2000 Annual average daily mean temperature for Greater Manchester, 1914-2006

UK Climate Projections (UKCP09) Probabilistic climate change projections on a 25x25km grid based on three GHG emissions scenarios Weather generator produces hourly and daily outputs of climate for a specific location on a 5x5km grid

Climate projections for Greater Manchester EcoCities combined both outputs from UKCP09 by creating a climate classification for Greater Manchester on a 5km grid with climate change projections for the high emissions scenario for the 2050s Detailed outputs are also provided for the 5km grid square over central Manchester for 3 scenarios

Climate projections for Greater Manchester Climate change projections are shown at three probability levels: 10% probability level – unlikely to be less than 50% probability level – as likely as not 90% probability level – unlikely to be greater than

Annual mean temperature, 2050s high scenario

Temperature of the warmest day in summer

Number of heatwave events per year in central Manchester

Number of cooling degree days per year in central Manchester

Number of heating degree days per year in central Manchester

Winter mean precipitation

Summer mean precipitation

Number of days with heavy rainfall per year in central Manchester

Potential climate change impacts for business Risks of business disruption due to flooding Insurance industry: exposure to flood risk Hotter summers are projected to increase the risk of overheating in workplaces Warmer temperatures might increase the region’s appeal as a tourist destination Opportunities to provide adaptation-related products and services at home and abroad Adapted from UK CCRA 2012

Potential impacts for health and wellbeing Hotter summers are projected to increase the risk of heat- related death and illness Milder winters are projected to result in a major reduction in the risk of cold-related death and illness Casualties due to flooding and the impact of floods on mental well-being are both projected to increase Health problems caused by air pollution may increase Adapted from UK CCRA 2012

Potential impacts on buildings and infrastructure Overheating is an increased risk to building occupants Energy demands for cooling are likely to increase Energy demands for heating are projected to decrease Flood risks to buildings and key infrastructure increase Damage to road and rail bridges projected to increase Sewers projected to fill and surcharge more frequently Water resources are projected to become scarcer Functionality of green infrastructure could be impaired by drought Adapted from UK CCRA 2012

EcoCities research at three spatial scales EcoCities carried out research across three levels of scale: Greater Manchester (Example 1) Neighbourhood (Example 2) Building (Example 3)

Vulnerability of communities to surface water flooding Greater Manchester Neighbourhood Building Past events and future trends suggest increasing flood risk Assessment of the current vulnerability of communities Emergency services as adaptive capacity Future economic development of GM will affect the vulnerability of communities Future land use changes will affect the risk of surface flooding Hazards Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability

Adapting The Corridor with green infrastructure Greater Manchester Neighbourhood Building Increasing occurrence of high temperatures and heat waves City centres are particularly vulnerable due to UHI Green Infrastructure as an adaptive measure Importance of The Corridor partnership in delivering the changes Hazards Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability © John McAslan and Partners, Manchester

Retrofitting office buildings for higher temperatures Greater Manchester Neighbourhood Building High temperatures are on the increase but cold spells still require appropriate measures Worker productivity is affected by their thermal comfort Retrofitting physical measures is one solution Adaptive capacity can also be seen in human expectations and behaviour Adaption to climate change needs to address overheating, enhance human comfort, reduce costs and help mitigation actions Hazards Adaptive Capacity Vulnerability

EcoCities – Four degrees of preparation EcoCities findings are presented on a website including a spatial portal, document library, related research and additional resources www.adaptingmanchester.co.uk

From blueprint to action...? The Greater Manchester Climate Strategy aims to shape Greater Manchester as a place that radically cuts emissions and secures growth whilst minimising vulnerability and increasing resilience to a rapidly changing climate. It will strengthen adaptation functions that operate on a sub- regional / regional scale, e.g. water supply, flood risk management, transport and green infrastructure Source: Greater Manchester Climate Strategy 2011-2020

Meeting the adaptation challenge (1) Greater Manchester is potentially well-placed to meet the adaptation challenge because: The frameworks for natural process (watershed and airshed) are broadly congruent with the administrative geography of GM; Source: Greater Manchester Climate Strategy 2011-2020

Meeting the adaptation challenge (2) The governance frameworks linking district to district, and districts to business and the wider community are substantially in place There is a shared commitment to action on adaptation through the GM Strategy and GM Climate Strategy Partnership working with the University sector is gaining strength, e.g. EcoCities

UK Climate Change Risk Assessment Priorities for action within next 5 years: Flood and coastal erosion risk management Specific aspects of natural ecosystems Management of water resources, particularly in areas with increasing water scarcity Overheating of buildings and other infrastructure in the urban environment Risks to health, e.g. from heatwaves and flooding Economic opportunities, especially to develop adaptation products and services Source: UK CCRA 2012 Potential to link to the workshops there with the last three points

Key actions at conurbation level Strategic planning Green Infrastructure Framework Strategic Flood Risk Assessment Biodiversity Action Plan Climate Vulnerability Assessment? Emergency planning NHS Manchester Heatwave Plan 2010 The Greater Manchester Resilience Forum Greater Manchester Risk Register Ensuring a diverse set of responses are in place to target all communities?

Taking foward the climate change partnership Using EcoCities resources to tackle vulnerability and building adaptive capacity towards Safeguarding Communities Investing for the long-term in our Buildings and Infrastructure to increase resilience to future extreme weather events and to complement mitigation strategies Keeping the links open between private, public and voluntary sectors to support the generation of innovative Finance and Investment mechanisms.

Many thanks to Bruntwood and the Oglesby Charitable Trust for their generous support of the EcoCities programme.

Adapting the city