Photo Source: Environment Canada Honours Thesis Proposal Jacqueline Wightman Environmental Planning Dalhousie University February 7 th, 2013 Development Trends and Vulnerability To Storms Case Study Analysis of a Community in Nova Scotia

Outline  Background  Storms in Nova Scotia  Coastal Development Trends  What is vulnerability?  Research Problem  Goals and Objectives  Method  Expected Findings  Implications of Study

Storms in Nova Scotia 10 Years of Hurricane Tracks: Nova Scotia

Storms in Nova Scotia Land-falling Hurricanes 100 Years of Tracks in Nova Scotia Photo Source: Environment Canada, 2012.

Storms in Nova Scotia  Land-falling hurricanes are not the only problem  Extratropical storm remnants can also do damage Photo Source: CBC News Online, Remnants of Hurricane Noel (2007) Damaged property and roads, Caused power outages to homes and businesses in Nova Scotia

Storms in Nova Scotia  Winter storms can do a lot of damage Photo Source: Fundy Group Publications LTD, Groundhog ‘76 Groundhog Day Storm, 1976 Blow to Yarmouth fishing industry Thousands of dollars of damage to this wharf alone

Storms in Nova Scotia  Climate change will increase storm risk:  Storm surges will reach further inland due to sea level rise  Possibility of more frequent, intense storms

Coastal Development Trends  Number of people on the coast is increasing  More people exposed  Use of coast in the 19 th and early 20 th century:  infrastructure (wharves, docks, railways, etc.)  Today:  residential, recreational, commercial and institutional uses

What is vulnerability? RISK is the product of  Hazard – How big is the storm?  Exposure – Will the storm hit us?  Vulnerability – Can we withstand it? All of these factors determine the RISK of damages

What is vulnerability?  The amount of destruction is determined by:  Magnitude of the storm  Our location in relation to the storm  Infrastructure and development patterns

Research Problem  How has vulnerability to storms in a community in Nova Scotia evolved over time due to changes in development patterns?  What do these trends imply for future storm risk?

Goals  Goal 1: Conduct a historical case study analysis of the effect of land use change on vulnerability  Goal 2: Determine how the community can minimize its vulnerability to future storms

 Map development changes over time including type, density, use and form.  Interpret land use change from a vulnerability perspective:  Determine and identify vulnerable land uses at each point in time.  Identify the damages associated with every storm.  Compare past to present vulnerability, and make recommendations based on past trends. Objectives

Method  Chose a community that is vulnerable to storms and has undergone significant land use change.  Yarmouth, Nova Scotia  Strongly affected by storms  Data available

Method: Land Use Change Over Time  Spatial analysis of land use change using GIS:  Geo-reference and map  historic fire insurance maps  Aerial photos  Current Zoning maps Section of 1891 Yarmouth Fire Insurance Map Courtesy of Yarmouth Planning Department

Method: Land Use Change Over Time  Categorize buildings based on attributes that affect vulnerability:  Use  Building materials  Permanency  Investment  Interpret change in vulnerability over time due to changes in land use Section of 1938 Yarmouth Fire Insurance Map Courtesy of Yarmouth Planning Department

Method: Storm Damage Analysis  Create a list of major storms that hit community:  Environment Canada  News articles  Compare storm damages to land use at the time, make correlations if possible Storm Date Damages -$$ -injuries -$$ -injuries -$$ -injuries Land Use

Method: Vulnerability to Future Storms  Analyze current vulnerability to storms  Based on historic trends and  current land use maps Identify areas of concern

Expected Findings Historic trends  Vulnerability increases as the coast becomes more developed  More storm damages in areas where development has changed from infrastructure/industrial to residential/commercial/recreational Future storm risk  Development occurring in a way that increases vulnerability Change in hazard?  Fires more of an issue in the 19 th century  Flooding a bigger issue today than in the past

Implications of study Understanding the past is key to planning for the future. Past:  The influence of a community’s development on its vulnerability to storms Present:  Trends show an increase in vulnerability, how can we change this? Future:  Climate change  increase in storm extent = more damage potential