“Rogue Valley Climate; Trends & Projections” Table Rock Kiwanis, Thursday May 22 nd Alan Journet Ph.D Presentation (as pdf) on web site: click ‘Projects’ – select ‘Presentation Project’ scroll down to listed presentation schedule

What incited my concern about climate change? 30 years teaching biology at Southeast Missouri State University: What are these? Mainly ecology, science methods, conservation biology – so let’s start with a little biology…...

What Determines Biological Community Distribution? Average Temperature. Average Precipitation. X

So What? MAJOR BIOLOGICAL COMMUNITIES OF THE WORLD These control the agricultural and forestry potential of our land Not only do these represent where our flora and fauna live…but

Business as usual CO 2  850 ppm Some redress: CO 2  550 ppm Williams & Jackson 2007: POTENTIAL FUTURE OF CURRENT NATURAL COMMUNITIES Within 500km Blue Probability = 1; Red Probability = 0

A Medical Issue: Diagnosis and Response Prob. Of Survival I II III IV My Choices: 1 – Accept the diagnosis Conclude I have cancer, and undergo treatment. But they could be wrong…maybe I don’t have cancer. 2- Deny the diagnosis Conclude I’m fine, and decline treatment. But I could be wrong…maybe I do have cancer. TIME IN MONTHS 12 24NOW AML: No treatment Hopium

Outline Why I am Concerned Trends and Projections Temperature Projections for the Rogue Valley Temperature extremes Droughts / Wildfires Precipitation Patterns in the Rogue Valley Rain vs Snow. Stream flow patterns. Weird Weather Consequences. The Bigger Picture What We Can Do?

THE MESSAGES 1) Climate change consequences are here and now 2) Projections are mainly continuations of current trends For those who plan to nap through my presentation….

Historic Trends are based on DATA The Future is Based on Projections: ~ But Are Projections Meaningful?

Global models using as baseline. a)Simulations incorporating natural and human-induced influences. b) Simulations with natural influences only. Black – Actual Red - Modeled Black – Actual Blue - Modeled

Medford Average Temperature History US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford

Rogue Basin Temperature History and Projections Ave – F Summer Ave – F Winter Ave – F Business As Usual

Projected Increases Average 1.6 – 4 ⁰ F (51.6 – 53.8 ⁰ F) Winter 1 – 3.5 ⁰ F (39.1 – 41.7 ⁰ F) Summer 1 – 6 ⁰ F (64.4 – 69.5 ⁰ F) August 1 – 7.5 ⁰ F (67.1 – 73.5 ⁰ F) Average 4.3 – 8.2 ⁰ F (54.3 – 58.2 ⁰ F) Winter 3.4 – 6.3 ⁰ F (41.5 – 44.5 ⁰ F) Summer 5.5 – 11.8 ⁰ F (69.1 – 75.4 ⁰ F) August 6.7 – 16.8 ⁰ F (72.7 – 82.8 ⁰ F)

Historic and Projected Ashland/Medford Annual Temperature Ashland Medford

US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford Medford 100 Degree Days History EXTREMES ARE ALSO IMPORTANT

Heat Waves: Number of Days > 100 o F Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

Historic Precipitation Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. National increase of 5% Substantial Regional Difference

Rogue Valley Precipitation Trends and Projections

46 Projected Precipitation Seasonal Pattern – High Emissions Scenarios = ‘Business As Usual’

April 22 nd 2014 Over 6 months

Jackson County Declaration Governor John Kitzhaber signed Executive Order on May 6 th when Jackson County was declared a Drought Emergency Area. Josephine County Commissioners declared ‘A Drought Emergency.’

Palmer Drought Severity Index with Projections Green: Decreasing Drought  7 months fewer per 30 years Yellow- Red: Increasing Drought  over 60 months more per 30 yrs – Business as usual

1958 – 2007 Historic Heavy Downpours (Heaviest 1% of all events): % Increase in Freq. Heavy Events Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. More events featuring heavy downpours

1958 – 2007 Historic Increase in Amount of pptn falling in Heavy Downpours Pattern – Heaviest 1% as Amount in Heavy Events Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. More precipitation in the heavier downpours

Projected Patterns in Light, Moderate & Heavy Precipitatio n Events by 2090s Reduced Light Drizzle Days Increased Heavy Downpour Days Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S.

US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford Medford Annual Snowfall - Inches Historic

Historic Grants Pass Annual Snowfall

March 2014 Snowpack ftp://ftp.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/data/water/wcs/gis/maps/or_swepctnormal_update.pdf

Snow vs Rainfall Trend Current trend is towards precipitation falling as rain at lower elevations rather than snow at higher elevations Expected to continue Reduced snow water equivalent Earlier snowmelt Earlier and lower peak stream flow

Mid-Elevation Snowfall Crater Lake 7,000 – 8,000 ft N. California Below 7500’ 13% decline Above 7500’ 12% increase

Projected PNW Run-off Timing Run-off peak  earlier & lower Late summer run-off  lower Global Climate Change Impacts in the U.S. Warming & Loss of Snowpack

0.5 ⁰ C is the difference between a high fire year and a low fire year. ( change-yellowstone-fires.html ) change-yellowstone-fires.html Forest studies tell us wildfire frequency is high when annual average temperature is high and snowmelt arrives early. Western Wildfires & Climate Change Exactly the historic trends and projections discussed

Western Wildfires & Climate Change

Western Wildfires & Climate Change

Related Climatic Factors: Local Trends & Projections

US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford Medford Frost-Free and Freeze Free Days Historic Frost-Free: >36⁰F Freeze Free: >33⁰F What’s happening locally in terms of growing season?

Medford Growing Degree and Freezing Days Historic Growing Degree Days: > 50⁰F Freezing Days: < 33⁰F US National Weather Service, NOAA - Medford Less Irrigation Water

Jet Stream and the Arctic Oscillation Polar Air Pressure Low - air rising Polar Air Pressure High - air falling

Climate Change (Chaos) and the Jet Stream be-affecting-the-jet-stream/ COLD WARM COLD WARM

Any Thoughts or Feelings So Far? THE MESSAGES 1) Climate change consequences are here and now 2) Projections are mainly continuations of current trends 3) Unless we choose to address the problem 4) Denying the evidence just delays action 5) It’s about Inter-generational Justice; do we care about the future, or not?

NASA – GISS Historic Data: Since 1970s ⁰ F Since 1880s - app. 2.0 ⁰F Since 1750s - >2.0⁰F Every year since 1998 is warmer than every year before that

Visions of The Last 40 Years

U.S. Temperatures 1880 – 2013 Goddard Institute for Space Studies Departure from mean Continental U.S ⁰ F above previous record ⁰F⁰F

Future Temperature Range (Beyond 2100) 3.6 ⁰ F 7.2 ⁰ F 10.8 ⁰ F 14.4 ⁰ F 18.0 ⁰ F 21.6 ⁰ F

Managing the Unavoidable (Adaptation) Managing ourselves and our environment in ways that minimize the threats posed; Preparing ourselves and natural systems to withstand climate changes that are unavoidable and which we cannot minimize. Bierbaum, R and J. Holdren, JP, MacCracken, M, Moss RH, Raven PH Confronting climate change: Avoiding the unmanageable and managing the unavoidable. But this is not enough….. Avoiding the Unmanageable (Mitigation) Reducing the release of greenhouse gases into our atmosphere.

Rogue Valley: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Private cars/trucks Public Transit Local Freight Transportation 32% Energy 24% Materials = Stuff 44% Energy to make stuff Energy to transport stuff here Fossil Fuels for energy production Energy used in our homes & local businesses Natural gas for heating Clothes, shoes, ‘phones, TVs

Areas To Address Individually Energy Consumption Transportation Stuff

We Have Choices! Individually & Collectively Money inflows & outflows Back in the Day… Now…. Energy Accounting GHG CO 2 Carbon Accounting Hopium

Questions? Any comments or questions ????