1 Mainstreaming Conservation ROI: How and Why? Jim Boyd Resources for the Future Timm Kroeger TNC

Interim Report on TNC-RFF Partnership supported by the Moore Foundation Mission Promote broader application of return on investment (ROI) analysis by conservation planners and managers

What Is ROI Analysis? Quantitative outcome measures – Measured or predicted conservation “lift” relative to baseline Costs, budget constraints taken into account – Measure bang for buck

Motivation Numerous studies have shown that ROI-based planning – Alters the location and targets of “optimal” conservation – Achieves more protection and higher-quality conservation outcomes – Saves money

Examples Moore et al, Biological Conservation, 2004 – 66% gain in species coverage Murdoch et al, Biological Conservation, 2007 – Major changes in portfolio choice Murdoch et al PNAS, 2010 – ROI yields 4x the conservation benefit, compared to “hotspot” framework

Motivation 1 Despite this, and despite leadership support – ROI analysis is rarely used in practice – Why? – What can we do about it?

Motivation 1 Despite this, and despite leadership support – ROI analysis is rarely, if ever, used by TNC – Why? – What can we do about it? These ROI analyses are of “simple” cost effectiveness – A single objective – e.g. biodiversity conservation

Motivation 2 Changing conservancy missions – Emphasize social objectives – Conserve ecosystem services – Multi-objective goals ROI framework arguably necessary to do – Optimized planning for – Multi-objective, social/economic missions

The TNC-RFF ROI Project Key questions: How to define the “R” in ROI? What type of ROI outputs are most useful to TNC? What are the core technical barriers? – Data, models Managerial barriers? – Planning/analysis frameworks, staffing, training, protocols

The Project Plan Phase 1 Evaluate current ROI analysis capabilities What ROI products would actually be used by managers and to what end? Phase 2 Depending on phase 1 …

Phase 1 Activities (1) Six project level case studies What is the project’s “ROI story?” What are the outcomes associated with that story? To what degree can the ROI story be quantified? What is the project-level state of the art re. quantification? What are the barriers to quantification?

Internal Demand Portfolio strategy – Use ROI to tell us where to invest over broad areas? Project-level evaluation – Use ROI to measure project effectiveness, manage adaptively (like RBM) Communications – Use ROI to improve messaging, to reach stakeholders, supporters

The Pilot TNC Cases Kimbe Bay MPA (Papua New Guinea) Great Bear Rainforest (Canada) Savannah River SRP (USA) Valdivian Coastal Reserve (Chile) Warm Springs Mountain Preserve (USA) Atlantic Forest Water Producer Program (Brazil)

What We’re Looking For What is the conservation objective? – Is it clearly defined, and can it be measured? – One objective, or multiple? – Biophysical or social outcomes? Measured baselines – Analysis of threats to conservation objectives Measured conservation outcomes as function of conservation actions

Biophysical Impact What is the biophysical “lift”? Measureable improvements over baseline Example: Increased species abundance Example: Preservation of species abundance, where otherwise we’d have losses Note: the lift must be attributable to the conservation action

Biophysical production functions Via monitored data, predictive models, stories

Results (Broadly Painted) Projects chosen – Biodiversity planning + opportunism – Some analysis of threats, but not systematic Evaluation of biophysical outcomes – Sporadic, with some innovative examples – Very limited support for monitoring Evaluation of social outcomes – Almost non-existent Costs – Usually, but not in consistent formats

Warm Springs Mountain Site selection – Sophisticated ecoregional planning – Opportunism versus cost-effectiveness – Qualitative threat assessment Conservation experiments – Fire restoration, species impacts – Small scale invasive species control Ecosystem services – No analysis of production functions, social outcomes

Implications for Phase 2 Social data, measures of ecosystem service benefits Project-level models, data on production functions – eg InVEST Demonstration of portfolio-level social objectives planning The ROI of ROI