Federal Resource Management and Ecosystem Services Guidebook nespguidebook.com ECOLOGICAL ASSESSMENT: MEANS-ENDS DIAGRAMS ACES Workshop 2014 Christy Ihlo, MEM Research Assistant, Ecosystem Services Program Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions Duke University The Federal Resource Management and Ecosystem Services Guidebook

Linking Management, Project, or Policy Choices to Ecosystem Service Provision Means-Ends Diagrams National Ecosystem Services Partnership Christy M. Ihlo, Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions at Duke University

What Are Means-Ends Diagrams?  Visual mapping tools  AKA path models, influence diagrams, causal chains, and belief networks  In the FRMES guidebook, they assess how management, project, or policy options change the provision of ecosystem services through ecological pathways

Management alternatives or project options Alternatives matrix comparing options Set of desired outcomes and key indicators Data on actions and outcomes How Do Means-Ends Fit Into the Framework?

What Are the Means and the Ends? M EANS : management, project, or policy choices (at various locations) E NDS : what people care about (ecosystem services)

How Are These Diagrams Useful?  Identify the cascade of ecological interactions caused by a management, project, or policy  Identify indicators to measure those changes  Provide a visual representation of benefits and tradeoffs  Show analysis steps and data/models needed  Highlight what is known and not known integrating data and models

How Do They Enable Comparisons? Ecosystem Service Alternative 1 Alternative 2 Service 1IncreaseDecrease Service 2DecreaseIncrease Service 3Increase Service 4IncreaseDecrease Service 5Decrease Alternative 1 Ecological Changes Ecosystem Service 1 Ecosystem Service 2 Ecosystem Service 3 Ecosystem Service 4 Ecosystem Service 5 Alternative 2 Ecological Changes Ecosystem Service 1 Ecosystem Service 2 Ecosystem Service 3 Ecosystem Service 4 Ecosystem Service 5 But what about space? Isn’t spatial context important?

Considering Space Nelson et al. 2009

Creating Means-Ends Diagrams

Hypothetical Example POTENTIAL MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES ALT. 1ALT. 2ALT. 3ALT. 4ALT. 5ALT. 6 Mechanical Thinning Prescribed Burning Mechanical Thinning Prescribed Burning Chemical Cheatgrass Removal (Site A - Lowland) (Site B - Upland) (Site C)(Site D) Fuel conditions result in a low threat to community Visibility and healthy air maintained Riparian areas resilient to fire Hunting/wildlife watching opportunities improved Hiking/camping opportunities maintained Timber harvest sustained Habitats/species protected Task: reduce risk of catastrophic wildfire to urban areas and improve air quality

Hypothetical Example POTENTIAL MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES ALT. 1ALT. 2ALT. 3ALT. 4ALT. 5ALT. 6 Mechanical Thinning Prescribed Burning Mechanical Thinning Prescribed Burning Chemical Cheatgrass Removal (Site A - Lowland) (Site B - Upland) (Site C)(Site D) Fuel conditions result in a low threat to community Visibility and healthy air maintained Riparian areas resilient to fire Hunting/wildlife watching opportunities improved Hiking/camping opportunities maintained Timber harvest sustained Habitats/species protected Task: reduce risk of catastrophic wildfire to urban areas and improve air quality

Hypothetical Example POTENTIAL MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES ALT. 1ALT. 2ALT. 3ALT. 4ALT. 5ALT. 6 Mechanical Thinning Prescribed Burning Mechanical Thinning Prescribed Burning Chemical Cheatgrass Removal (Site A - Lowland) (Site B - Upland) (Site C)(Site D) Fuel conditions result in a low threat to community Visibility and healthy air maintained Riparian areas resilient to fire Hunting/wildlife watching opportunities improved Hiking/camping opportunities maintained Timber harvest sustained Habitats/species protected Task: reduce risk of catastrophic wildfire to urban areas and improve air quality

Hypothetical Example Task: reduce risk of catastrophic wildfire to urban areas and improve air quality POTENTIAL MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES ALT. 1ALT. 2ALT. 3ALT. 4ALT. 5ALT. 6 Mechanical Thinning Prescribed Burning Mechanical Thinning Prescribed Burning Chemical Cheatgrass Removal (Site A - Lowland) (Site B - Upland) (Site C)(Site D) Fuel conditions result in a low threat to community Visibility and healthy air maintained Riparian areas resilient to fire Hunting/wildlife watching opportunities improved Hiking/camping opportunities maintained Timber harvest sustained Habitats/species protected

Hypothetical Example POTENTIAL MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVES ALT. 1ALT. 2ALT. 3ALT. 4ALT. 5ALT. 6 Mechanical Thinning Prescribed Burning Mechanical Thinning Prescribed Burning Chemical Cheatgrass Removal (Site A - Lowland) (Site B - Upland) (Site C)(Site D) Fuel conditions result in a low threat to community Visibility and healthy air maintained Riparian areas resilient to fire Hunting/wildlife watching opportunities improved Hiking/camping opportunities maintained Timber harvest sustained Habitats/species protected Task: reduce risk of catastrophic wildfire to urban areas and improve air quality

Building a Means-Ends Diagram M ANAGEMENT A LTERNATIVE Mechanical Thinning (Site A – Lowland) E COLOGICAL C HANGES Respiratory Health Reduction of Fire Risk Camping Hiking Recreational Hunting Wildlife Watching Biodiversity Existence Timber Commuter Visibility Building a Means-Ends Diagram Increase Decrease Increase or Decrease E COSYSTEM S ERVICES

Building a Means-Ends Diagram M ANAGEMENT A LTERNATIVE Mechanical Thinning (Site A – Lowland) E COLOGICAL C HANGES FireAir Quality Respiratory Health Reduction of Fire Risk Camping Hiking Recreational Hunting Wildlife Watching Biodiversity Existence Timber Commuter Visibility Building a Means-Ends Diagram Increase Decrease Increase or Decrease E COSYSTEM S ERVICES

Building a Means-Ends Diagram M ANAGEMENT A LTERNATIVE Mechanical Thinning (Site A – Lowland) E COLOGICAL C HANGES Forest StructureFireAir Quality Respiratory Health Reduction of Fire Risk Camping Hiking Recreational Hunting Wildlife Watching Biodiversity Existence Timber Commuter Visibility Increase Decrease Increase or Decrease Building a Means-Ends Diagram E COSYSTEM S ERVICES

Building a Means-Ends Diagram M ANAGEMENT A LTERNATIVE Mechanical Thinning (Site A – Lowland) E COLOGICAL C HANGES Understory Density Horizontal Connectivity Total Forest Area Forest Structure Fire Severity (% Mortality) Fire Return Interval Fire Burnt Area Fire Particulates Visibility Air Quality Respiratory Health Reduction of Fire Risk Camping Hiking Recreational Hunting Wildlife Watching Biodiversity Existence Timber Commuter Visibility Increase Decrease Increase or Decrease Building a Means-Ends Diagram E COSYSTEM S ERVICES

Building a Means-Ends Diagram M ANAGEMENT A LTERNATIVE Mechanical Thinning (Site A – Lowland) E COLOGICAL C HANGES Understory Density Horizontal Connectivity Total Forest Area Forest Structure Fire Severity (% Mortality) Fire Return Interval Fire Burnt Area Fire Particulates Visibility Air Quality Habitat Suitability Contiguous Habitat Area Terr. Sp. Habitats Population Estimates Terr. Sp. Pop. Respiratory Health Reduction of Fire Risk Camping Hiking Recreational Hunting Wildlife Watching Biodiversity Existence Timber Commuter Visibility Increase Decrease Increase or Decrease Building a Means-Ends Diagram E COSYSTEM S ERVICES

Building a Means-Ends Diagram M ANAGEMENT A LTERNATIVE Mechanical Thinning (Site A – Lowland) E COLOGICAL C HANGES Understory Density Horizontal Connectivity Total Forest Area Forest Structure Soil Compaction Litter Depth Forest Floor Structure Fire Severity (% Mortality) Fire Return Interval Fire Burnt Area Fire Particulates Visibility Air Quality Habitat Suitability Contiguous Habitat Area Terr. Sp. Habitats Outbreak Susceptibility Outbreak Area Outbreak Intensity Pests/Pathogens Population Estimates Terr. Sp. Pop. Respiratory Health Reduction of Fire Risk Camping Hiking Recreational Hunting Wildlife Watching Biodiversity Existence Timber Commuter Visibility Increase Decrease Increase or Decrease Building a Means-Ends Diagram E COSYSTEM S ERVICES

Building a Means-Ends Diagram M ANAGEMENT A LTERNATIVE Mechanical Thinning (Site A – Lowland) E COLOGICAL C HANGES Understory Density Horizontal Connectivity Total Forest Area Forest Structure Soil Compaction Litter Depth Forest Floor Structure Fire Severity (% Mortality) Fire Return Interval Fire Burnt Area Fire Particulates Visibility Air Quality Habitat Suitability Contiguous Habitat Area Terr. Sp. Habitats Outbreak Susceptibility Outbreak Area Outbreak Intensity Pests/Pathogens Population Estimates Terr. Sp. Pop. Sediment Load Water Quality Runoff Erosion Potential Respiratory Health Reduction of Fire Risk Camping Hiking Recreational Hunting Wildlife Watching Biodiversity Existence Fishing Timber Commuter Visibility Habitat Suitability Aq. Sp. Habitat Population Estimates Fish Populations Increase Decrease Increase or Decrease Building a Means-Ends Diagram E COSYSTEM S ERVICES

Building a Means-Ends Diagram M ANAGEMENT A LTERNATIVE Mechanical Thinning (Site A – Lowland) E COLOGICAL C HANGES Understory Density Horizontal Connectivity Total Forest Area Forest Structure Soil Compaction Litter Depth Forest Floor Structure Fire Severity (% Mortality) Fire Return Interval Fire Burnt Area Fire Standing Carbon Stocks Rate of Carbon Seq. Carbon Seq. in Forest Products Carbon Particulates Visibility Air Quality Habitat Suitability Contiguous Habitat Area Terr. Sp. Habitats Outbreak Susceptibility Outbreak Area Outbreak Intensity Pests/Pathogens Population Estimates Terr. Sp. Pop. Water Volume Water Timing (Consistency) Water Yield Sediment Load Water Quality Runoff Erosion Potential Respiratory Health Reduction of Fire Risk Climate Stability Camping Hiking Recreational Hunting Wildlife Watching Biodiversity Existence Boating Fishing Timber Commuter Visibility Habitat Suitability Aq. Sp. Habitat Population Estimates Fish Populations Increase Decrease Increase or Decrease Building a Means-Ends Diagram E COSYSTEM S ERVICES

Building a Means-Ends Diagram M ANAGEMENT A LTERNATIVE Mechanical Thinning (Site A – Lowland) E COLOGICAL C HANGES Understory Density Horizontal Connectivity Total Forest Area Forest Structure Soil Compaction Litter Depth Forest Floor Structure Fire Severity (% Mortality) Fire Return Interval Fire Burnt Area Fire Standing Carbon Stocks Rate of Carbon Seq. Carbon Seq. in Forest Products Carbon Particulates Visibility Air Quality Habitat Suitability Contiguous Habitat Area Terr. Sp. Habitats Outbreak Susceptibility Outbreak Area Outbreak Intensity Pests/Pathogens Population Estimates Terr. Sp. Pop. Water Volume Water Timing (Consistency) Water Yield Sediment Load Water Quality Runoff Erosion Potential Respiratory Health Reduction of Fire Risk Climate Stability Camping Hiking Recreational Hunting Wildlife Watching Biodiversity Existence Boating Fishing Timber E COSYSTEM S ERVICES Commuter Visibility Habitat Suitability Aq. Sp. Habitat Population Estimates Fish Populations Increase Decrease Increase or Decrease Building a Means-Ends Diagram

Qualitative versus Quantitative Diagrams

Building a Means-Ends Diagram M ANAGEMENT A LTERNATIVE Mechanical Thinning (Site A – Lowland) E COLOGICAL C HANGES Understory Density Horizontal Connectivity Total Forest Area Forest Structure Soil Compaction Litter Depth Forest Floor Structure Fire Severity (% Mortality) Fire Return Interval Fire Burnt Area Fire Standing Carbon Stocks Rate of Carbon Seq. Carbon Seq. in Forest Products Carbon Particulates Visibility Air Quality Habitat Suitability Contiguous Habitat Area Terr. Sp. Habitats Outbreak Susceptibility Outbreak Area Outbreak Intensity Pests/Pathogens Population Estimates Terr. Sp. Pop. Water Volume Water Timing (Consistency) Water Yield Sediment Load Water Quality Runoff Erosion Potential Respiratory Health Reduction of Fire Risk Climate Stability Camping Hiking Recreational Hunting Wildlife Watching Biodiversity Existence Boating Fishing Timber Commuter Visibility Habitat Suitability Aq. Sp. Habitat Population Estimates Fish Populations Increase Decrease Increase or Decrease Selecting Indicators for Social Analysis E COSYSTEM S ERVICES

Comparing Alternatives Ecosystem Service Mechanical Thinning (Upland) Mechanical Thinning (Lowland) Prescribed Burning (Lowland) Respiratory Health +++ Commuter Visibility +++ Fire Risk Reduction +++ Climate Stability +++ Timber ++ No change Hiking +++ Camping +++ Recreational Hunting +/- Wildlife Watching +/- Biodiversity Existence +++ Boating +++ FishingNo change --

How Are These Diagrams Useful?  Identify the cascade of ecological interactions caused by a management, project, or policy  Identify indicators to measure those changes  Provide a visual representation of benefits and tradeoffs  Show analysis steps and data/models needed  Highlight what is known and not known integrating data and models

Group Exercise Create a means-ends diagram for one of the examples using the given alternative and background materials Great Dismal Swamp: Hydrological Restoration The Marsh Project: Prescribed Burning National Ecosystem Services Partnership

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