Integrated Ecological Economics Modeling of Ecosystem Services from Brazil's Amazon Rainforest III LBA Scientific Conference Brasilia, Brazil 2004 Rosimeiry Portela MEES/UMD, USA GIEE/UVM, USA

Understanding the structure and function of the Amazon: gustavofonseca A mosaic picture… Sioli, H. 1984

RUMBA: Integrating functions of the ecosystem to human economy and social interactions… …with the main focus on the contribution of the ecosystem goods and functions to human economy and welfare.

RUMBA: Scenarios Baseline: Historical trends; Scenario 1: Increased investment in BC with region’s own financial resources; Scenario 2: Increased investment in BC with region’s and external financial resources; Scenario 3: Increased investment in NC with region’s own financial resources; Scenario 4: Increased investment in NC with region’s and external financial resources.

Research Results: Annual Deforestation Rates Baseline and Alternative Scenarios

Research Results: Land Cover/Land Use Composition Baseline Scenario Strong trend in land conversion from forest to other land uses; 1975: 96% forest cover 2100: 26% forest cover Land Use Pasture: 42% Fallow: 22% Agriculture: 10%

Results: Climate Variables Baseline Scenario Precipitation: 23% reduction Evapotranspiration: 26%reduction Temperature: 11% increase Forest Carbon Balance: Decreasing Uptake and Increasing Emissions

Results: Ecosystem Services Variables Removal of forest cover leads to increasing losses of ecosystem services: 80% by 2100 Higher losses observed in scenarios of increased development Monetary valuation: Increasing prices per unit of service (inelasticity of demand of forest services)

Results: Provision of Services by Forest Baseline Scenario

Results: Monetary Valuation of Ecosystem Services Value of ecosystem services is estimated at about 5 times the GRP

Results: GRP and GRP per capita Increasing economic growth for the simulated period… …accompanied by decreasing per capita income.

Results: Welfare/All Scenarios WELFARE (Welfare Index) BASELINE SCENARIO SCENARIO SCENARIO SCENARIO

Results: Compensation for Avoided Deforestation Gains to the regional economy from forest conversion against losses associated with emissions Scenario 3 ( ) Forest spared from deforestation : thousand km 2 Avoided Emissions: 3.3 Pg C Foregone economic growth: US$ 1,567.3 Billion Amazon Deforestation: Amazon Deforestation: 0.3 Pg C yr -1 Kyoto Target: Kyoto Target: 0.5 Pg C yr -1

Results: Single Compensation for Avoided Emission

Results: Continuous Compensation for Avoided Emission

Discussions  Increasing land use change in the Brazilian Amazon incurs significant losses without this being adequately offset by increasing monetary income or welfare of people of the region.  In the absence of significant incentives from global beneficiaries for any one ecosystem service or a combination of incentives addressing several ecosystem services, rational uses at the local level lead to sub optimal uses from the global perspective.

Conclusions Deforestation proceeds at high rates in the Brazilian Amazon The region suffers significant climate changes and losses of forest services as a result of forest removal Increasing regional economic growth is not translated into increasing monetary income and welfare Protection of forest will require a concerted long-term effort

‘What we are doing to the forest of the world is but a mirror reflection of what we are doing to ourselves and one another’. —Mahatma Ghandi