Altius Associates December 8, 2010. Page 2 Altius Associates| December 2010 Page 2 Topics for discussion What is the current state of global timberland.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Center for Emerging Market Enterprises
Advertisements

Asian Drivers and Poor Countries: The Research Agenda Jörg Mayer UNCTAD China and India: Whats in it for Africa? Paris, March 2006.
Forestry Privatization in South Africa by Aditya Agarwal Siddharth Bafna Alok Gupta Ioannis Maniatis Ozlem Tanik.
Demand Side Economics For The Pacific Liner Trades Presented by Doug Coates Principal, Manalytics International The Society of Naval Architects and Marine.
The Australian Sugar Industry. Sucrogen – more than sugar We think so!
CANFOR CORPORATION University of Victoria Student Research CFA Institute Research Challenge 2012.
© 2014 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. May not be copied, scanned, or duplicated, in whole or in part, except for use as permitted in a license.
Outlook for Australia’s forestry and forest products industry
Managing Timberlands Owned by a REIT. 2 Key Components of a REIT  REIT Background: Form of C-corporation Created in 1960 Vehicle for the multitudes Pass-through.
POPE RESOURCES D.A. Davidson & Co. - Forest Products Mini Summit Portland, OR November 10, 2003.
US Hardwood Exports : A Global Perspective. Growing Importance of US Hardwood Exports: Exports as a % of US Production Source: Hardwood Review, Oct 2004.
MACROECONOMIC POLICY IN THE ASIA-PACIFIC GECO6400 ECONOMIC GROWTH MACROECONOMIC POLICY CHALLENGES COURSE REVISION.
Relevance of Marketing Concepts to Indian Companies
Derek Eaton Division of Technology, Industry & Economics Economics & Trade Branch Geneva, Switzerland “Designing the Green Economy” Centre for International.
Economics of Timber Production on Private Land in Indiana.
Globalization of Markets : - Some Trends and Implications for Norwegian Industry Arild Aspelund, PhD.
INTRODUCTION TO BUSINESS
Agriculture and International Trade Chapter 16. Discussion Topics Growth and instability in agricultural trade The importance of agricultural trade The.
Economics of Timber Production on Private Land in Indiana.
Introduction Advent of ICT Increased integration of market Mobility of people for job and vacation Reach of satellite channels Internet Global Village.
Western Hardwood Association Symposium III October 7, 2003 The Future of Hardwood Tree Farming.
China's banking system has undergone significant changes in the last two decades Banks in china are now functioning more like banks than before China's.
SE Asia: Brooke Perspectives. Key Demographics AsiaEurope (25 countries) USA 3.8 billion 455 million million 42.35m s.km 3.89m sk.m 9.16m s.km US$4,969.
Trade and Climate Change: International Perspective Mac Callaway, Ph.D UNEP-RISØ Center Technical University of Denmark CPA International.
Indonesia - The World’s Next Economic Power Chairul Tanjung Chairman of National Economic Committee (KEN) KOMITE EKONOMI NASIONAL REPUBLIK INDONESIA July.
Community owned forests conference Missoula, June 2005.
Lesson 2: International Investment. Foreign Investment What is foreign investment? “Flows of capital from one nation to another in exchange for significant.
A region with two stories……….growing established markets & developing emerging markets Aaron Iori Regional Manager SE Asia/Greater China.
The BRIC economies Dani Rodrik SW31/PED-233/Law School 2390 Spring 2013.
CANFOR Export Project. Agenda 1.Objective 2.Company overview 3.Potential wood demand in China 4.Competitive advantage 5.Possible constraints.
Economic Development and the Extractive Industries Prof. Jeffrey D. Sachs Director of the Earth Institute Columbia University For the CCSI Executive Training.
Rural Development Council 8 th December Contents Scottish Enterprise Focus Economic Downturn Implications & Actions Core Rural Objectives HIE Economic.
1 Prospects for the New Look Tenon John Dell Chief Executive, Tenon Limited Crowne Plaza Hotel, Auckland 16 November 2004.
New Global Economic Powers and the Environment Dr. Peter Bosshard Policy Director, International Rivers Beijing, April 18, 2011.
Global Economy (International Business) n Importance to DFW Area n Why TXU Went International n How TXU Decided Where to Enter (the Strategy) n What TXU.
VED S.A.. VED Your trusted partner for Investment Management, Mergers & Acquisitions and Real Estate Investments VED S.A. 1.
Asian Economic Overview. Dave Perrett Regional Strategist PPM Asia 15th Nov, 2000.
March 2008 ABARE Outlook Conference2 March Overseas Opportunities for Australian Forestry Sector.
BUILDING BRIDGES: RUSSIAN ALUMINUM IN A GLOBAL CONTEXT Vladislav Soloviov Chief Financial Officer Russia: Going Global? London, October 12-13, 2005.
We see the forest. And we see the trees. SACRS Spring Conference 2009 May 14, 2009 S UCCESSFUL S TRATEGIES = RMK T IMBERLAND G ROUP A R E G I O N S M O.
Globalisation of forest products markets Marc Boutin Quebec Lumber Manufacturers ’ Association October 2, 2001QLMA.
The Impact of Global Log Markets By Mike Seidl Indiana State Department of Agriculture/DNR.
Red Alder Export from the US Dr. Ivan Eastin Director, CINTRAFOR College of Forest Resources, UW Presented at the: Western Hardwood Association Annual.
Special Interest Tourism Nicos Rodosthenous PhD 29/10/ /10/20131Dr Nicos Rodosthenous.
INTERNATIONAL TRADE LECTURE 1: The World of International Economics.
Wind Denmark Energy Annual Event 2015 Financing of companies within the wind industry from a bank perspective Torben André Petersen, Head of Branch Region.
Global Wood Industry Demand, Supply, Issues Phill Guay.
Investor Presentation London, October 2015 South America.
Pallet Lumber: Supply Issues and Outlook Western Pallet Association Don Haid Markets and Economic Research January 22, 2006.
Lecture 3: Major Economic Systems THE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT DR(PROF) M AMBASHANKAR.
Challenges and Opportunities for Addressing Global Climate Change February 2006.
Welcome to class of Emerging Markets by Dr. Satyendra Singh University of Winnipeg Canada.
US INVESTMENT OVERVIEW 0 CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD C&W Overview OWNERSHIP C&W is the world’s largest privately held commercial real estate services firm. In.
NZ Forest Policy Project Working Party 3 Forest Products Processing and Marketing Led by Marcel Vroege.
6/10/2016 Fan He IWEP, CASS Structural Changes after the Global Financial Crisis: China's Perspective.
Economic Systems and Market Methods
Growth in East Asia: Innovative Firms in Dynamic Cities Shahid Yusuf World Bank DECRG February 18, 2004.
How do E&P companies run better with SAP?. Shifting Demand and Supply Patterns  Geographical match of supply and demand  Oil price volatility  Evolving.
Growth through investment. Introduction to Bibby Line Group Started as a family- owned shipping business on 1807 Group now includes logistics, financial.
“…global multinationals have … viewed developing Asia [countries]…as an offshore-production platform. The offshore- efficiency solution is still an attractive.
The Forestland Group LLC Strategies for Conserving Private Working Forests Charles H. Collins The Forestland Group, LLC Cambridge, MA/Chapel Hill, NC.
CANFOR CORPORATION University of Victoria Student Research CFA Institute Research Challenge 2012.
© 2016 Global Market Insights, Inc. USA. All Rights Reserved Outlook of Transfer Switch Market status and development trends reviewed.
Iran’s Automotive Industry: Opportunities & Challenges ahead
NS4960 Spring Term 2017 China: Shift Away from Coal
Strategies for Conserving Private Working Forests
Will present results from a combination of market related studies, trials and demonstration sites, grower adoption surveys Example of tea! EXPERIENCES.
LONGYEAR A MICHIGAN-BASED ASSET MANAGER FOR OVER 145 YEARS.
NS4960 Spring Term 2018 China: Shift Away from Coal
Main results and conclusions of the
Presentation transcript:

Altius Associates December 8, 2010

Page 2 Altius Associates| December 2010 Page 2 Topics for discussion What is the current state of global timberland investments – who, where, how? Where are the major centers of timber production and what is the demand outlook for paper and wood products? What regions do we believe offer compelling investment opportunities? Q & A

Page 3 Altius Associates| December 2010 Page 3 Investment-grade Timberlands by Region

Page 4 Altius Associates| December 2010 Institutional Timberland Investments by Region 6/30/2010 Market Value

Page 5 Altius Associates| December 2010 Institutional Investments by Structure

Page 6 Altius Associates| December 2010 Investor Characteristics 6/30/2010 Market Value

Page 7 Altius Associates| December 2010 Page 7 Topics for discussion What is the current state of global timberland investments – who, where, how? Where are the major centers of timber production and what is the demand outlook for paper and wood products? What regions do we believe offer compelling investment opportunities? Q & A

Page 8 Altius Associates| December 2010 Page 8 Timber Market Overview Population = Demand

Page 9 Altius Associates| December 2010 Page 9 Timber Market Overview Timber Harvests vs Paper and Wood Products Production by Region, 2009

Page 10 Altius Associates| December 2010 Page 10 Timber Market Overview US Forest Production by Region

Page 11 Altius Associates| December 2010 Page 11 Key Global Driver Recovery in US housing markets

Page 12 Altius Associates| December 2010 Page 12 Changes in trade patterns Sources: China Customs Data and Forest Trends Analysis 2007 Note: As a benchmark, the total pine harvest in the U.S. South in 2008 was ~180 million m 3 Key Global Driver China demand growth greatly exceeds domestic timber supplies

Page 13 Altius Associates| December 2010 Page 13 Topography is challenging with high-cost cold winter logging & high logistics costs to market. Significant capital required for expansion. Key Global Driver Economic viability of Russian timber supplies

Page 14 Altius Associates| December 2010 Page 14 Key Global Driver Potential development of energy-related markets

Page 15 Altius Associates| December 2010 Page 15 Topics for discussion What is the current state of global timberland investments – who, where, how? Where are the major centers of timber production and what is the demand outlook for paper and wood products? What regions do we believe offer compelling investment opportunities? Q & A

Page 16 Altius Associates| December 2010 RMS Core Investment Regions

Page 17 Altius Associates| December 2010 Page 17 Risk-Return Profile of Target Countries EXPECTED RETURN (real, net) LOWMODERATE RISK

Page 18 Altius Associates| December 2010 Brazil Forest Plantations: Location & Species Scale has been developed in many regions, for both pine and eucalyptus Pine Belt Source: ABRAF, Sao Paulo Institute of Agricultural Economics and STCP, 2009 Eucalyptus region >76% of total plantation area <24% of total plantation area Legend Currently: Eucalyptus: 4.3 million ha. Pine: 1.9 million ha.

Page 19 Altius Associates| December 2010 Page 19 Investment Summary: Brazil Markets Softwood markets are transitioning from US export emphasis to globally diversified customer focus. Increasing growth in domestic markets in response to government sponsored infrastructure and housing initiatives. Premier global producer of bleached eucalyptus kraft pulp. Growing domestic MDF consumption, along with energy markets, are generating fiber price pressure. Investment Opportunities Wealthy family ownerships reaching generational tipping point. Many are involved in forest products manufacturing and facing financial pressures to monetize timberlands. Significant opportunities to acquire assets in $25 - $50 million USD range. Major pulp and paper companies in early stages of shift from fully integrated model through sale of “non- strategic” assets. Incremental consolidation of small ownerships creating scale can also be achieved. Political/Legal It’s Brazil…difficult, but not impossible. Highly regulated labor, environmental, tax and legal systems add process cost. Globally competitive with highly productive hardwood and softwood forests and manufacturing. Growing domestic economy providing demand support.

Page 20 Altius Associates| December 2010 New Zealand Forest Plantations: Location & Species New Zealand’s forest resource is dominated by radiata pine. Source: MAF National Exotic Forest Description, 2008 Currently: Radiata Pine: 1.57 million ha. Other: 0.18 million ha.

Page 21 Altius Associates| December 2010 Page 21 Investment Summary: New Zealand Markets Well-positioned to supply growing demand in China and India, both countries having large supply deficits. Cost increases of competing supplies will be an incremental price driver: – Russia: Increasing remote logistics costs, environmental restrictions and export taxes. – Canada: Reduced harvest from mountain pine beetle mortality. Continued demand by New Zealand and Australian domestic economies. Investment Opportunities Majority of timberland ownership held by investors, will provide ongoing acquisition opportunities. Remaining medium size companies seeking timberland sales and long-term wood supply agreements as part of strategic shift of capital and management from fully integrated model to focused manufacturing for the supply of domestic and Asia-Pacific markets. Consolidation of regional fragmented forest tracts creating scale can be achieved. Political/Legal Very favorable foreign investment climate. Highly transparent regulatory and legal system. Key supplier of sustainable softwood for rapidly growing Asia-Pacific markets.

Page 22 Altius Associates| December 2010 Australia Forest Plantations: Location & Species Forest plantations are concentrated around coastal regions, providing excellent growing conditions Source: National Forest Inventory 2008 Legend Forest Plantation Regions

Page 23 Altius Associates| December 2010 Page 23 Investment Summary: Australia Markets Strong softwood markets driven by domestic consumption for construction, outdoor and appearance products. Inadequate domestic supply supplemented by imports, mainly from New Zealand. Largest supplier of hardwood chips to rapidly growing Asia-Pacific markets. Investment Opportunities Privatization of large public forests has begun and will provide significant opportunities to acquire quality softwood assets. Liquidation of overly leveraged MIS schemes may provide opportunities to acquire eucalyptus plantation assets. Political/Legal Very favorable foreign investment climate. Highly transparent regulatory and legal system. Strong domestic softwood market and major hardwood chip exporter.

Page 24 Altius Associates| December 2010 Page 24 China Forest Plantations: Location & Species Four broad forest regions can be identified based on six major species groups. Source: Pöyry & RMS Analysis 2007 Guangxi and Guangdong provinces have been the focus for many forest plantation development projects

Page 25 Altius Associates| December 2010 Page 25 Investment Summary: China Markets China’s strong demand growth is pulling increasing imports, equivalent to US Southern pine harvest. Domestic sawlog and pulp log pricing is based on import parity. Investment Opportunities Estates accumulated by medium to large size companies to assure fiber supply are becoming available as owners shift capital and management from a fully integrated model to leading edge manufacturing. These former owners will provide market stability as a major customer. Incremental consolidation with smaller acquisitions creating scale can also be achieved. Political/Legal Forests can be privately owned with long term leases and are transferable. Sustainable commercial forests and associated rural manufacturing have strong political support. Transparency of the tax and regulatory systems has substantially improved with WTO entry. Legal protection, tax minimization and capital repatriation supported with Hong Kong structures. Strongest growing global forest products market that is sustained by domestic growth with a perennially large and increasing fiber supply deficit.

Page 26 Altius Associates| December 2010 Questions?