Hard Times Tony Wilson Director of Policy and Research Centre for Economic and Social Inclusion

Toughest jobs market for a generation

Back in 2010, consensus was return to trend growth...

Since then things have got worse – new forecasts are much weaker...

And even those may be optimistic!

Result: 300,000 fewer jobs forecast now than previously for

Which means more people on JSA – up to 350,000 more than expected

And while new vacancies have come back up...

More competition means the stock of vacancies is in the doldrums

So: Hard times And far tougher than when JCP and Work Programme budgets were set

e.g. Work Programme – starts up 50% for JSA (partially offset by 10% fall for ESA...)

Already seeing this in referrals June to October 2011 – up 20%

And will feed through into outcomes Iron law: lower growth = fewer jobs

So what does this mean for homeless and vulnerably housed? Threats: Economy Public funding Incentives/ structures Freedom and flex Welfare reform... But opportunities: Experience Freedom and flex

Experience Know what good looks like: Single lead case worker within JCP/ WP Collaboration with homelessness services Co-location Referrals to services Reciprocal training Addressing all barriers – esp. mental health, dependency, family breakdown, debt

Freedom and flex Less prescription in JCP is also an opportunity Not just a service for when things go wrong Work Programme “black box”, innovation Opportunity to engage is right now More local control – across LA budgets, skills, health, regeneration (but less money overall) Emerging social finance market – Big Society Capital, Community Budgets

So where go from here? What’s working? In local partnerships With JCP/ Work Programme/ others How go further? E.g. building on Homeless Link/ JCP guidance; through Work Programme; in local partnerships What needs to change?

Tony Wilson Director of Policy and Research Centre for Economic and Social Inclusion