Modelling deforestation and its intraregional interactions in the Brazilian Amazon: market pressure versus public policies Amazônia em Perspectiva: Por uma Ciência Integrada Conferência Científica Internacional LBA, GEOMA & PPBio 17 a 20 de novembro, Manaus - Amazonas – Brasil Giovana Mira de Espindola (INPE) Advisors: Dra. Ana Paula Aguiar (INPE) Dr. Gilberto Câmara (INPE)..

Motivation Objectives Study Area and Scales Methodological Approaches SUMMARY

MOTIVATION Based on previous results (AGUIAR, 2006), we need to further understand: Interaction between processes that act on different scales Intraregional interactions of market pressure, policies, connectivity, and institutional aspects The role of connectivity to markets in different contexts

Demand: Is related to external market forces, increase and decrease are proxies of market constraints Variables: Scale 25 x 25 km 2 –Percentage of protected areas –Connection to national markets –Distance to paved roads –Distance to unpaved roads Scale 100 x 100 km 2 –Distance to roads –Average humidity –Percentage of fertility soils CLUE MODEL

Comparison to real data and new frontiers process knowledge Alternative CLUE runs from 1997 to 2020 SCENARIO EXPLORATION Linking Patterns to Process Knowledge

Federative States 0%100% Deforestation Pattern in 1997 (25 x 25 km 2 )

Paved Roads in 2010 Unpaved Roads Main Rivers 0.0 – – – – – – – – – – 1.0 % Change 1997 to 2020 Baseline Scenario A – Hot Spots of Deflorestation from 1997 to 2020 São Felix/Iriri (Terra do Meio) BR-163 (Cuiabá-Santarém) South of Amazonas BR-319 (Porto Velho-Manaus) New frontiers in Central Amazon:

ALAP BR – – – – – – – – – – 1.0 % Change 1997 to 2020 Baseline Scenario A – Hot Spots of Deflorestation from 1997 to 2020 Paved Roads in 2010 Unpaved Roads Main Rivers

ALAP BR-319 New Protected Areas (2007) New Areas of Sustainable Use (2007) Baseline Scenario A – Hot Spots of Deflorestation from 1997 to – – – – – – – – – – 1.0 % Change 1997 to 2020 Paved Roads in 2010 Unpaved Roads Main Rivers

0.0 – – – – – – – – – – 1.0 % mudança 1997 a 2020: Scenario B – Hot Spots of Deflorestation from 1997 to 2020 – All Areas ALAP BR-319 New Protected Areas (2007) New Areas of Sustainable Use (2007) Paved Roads in 2010 Unpaved Roads Main Rivers

Diminuição : Aumento : Diferences: Diferences – Hot Spots of Deflorestation from 1997 to 2020 ALAP BR-319 Paved Roads in 2010 Unpaved Roads Main Rivers

Interaction between processes that act on different scales: 1)Understand intraregional interactions of market pressure, connectivity, policies and institutional aspects 2)The role of connectivity to markets in different contexts

OBJECTIVES Part 1: Understand rates of deforestation fluctuation since 2000 considering market versus policies in different contexts. Part 2: Compare statistical analysis using 2006 Agricultural Census to understand spatial determining factors in comparison to 1996 (AGUIAR, 2006). Part 3: Construct new multiscale models and scenarios for Amazon for specific land uses (pasture, mechanized agriculture, familiar agriculture).

STUDY AREA AND SCALES PA-279/SFX and BR-163/Santarém North of MT, South of Amazonas

METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES Part 1: Understand rates of deforestation fluctuation since 2000 considering market versus policies in different contexts. Study Area: Focus on selected sites to include heterogeneity of actors and frontiers São Félix, Santarém, South of Amazonas, Mato Grosso. Methods: - Refine connection measures (markets, infrastructure projects). - Factors: Commodities price, land prices, cadastral regulation measures, command and control actions, protected areas. - Field-work, cluster analysis.

METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES Part 2: Compare statistical analysis using 2006 Agricultural Census to understand spatial determining factors in comparison to 1996 (AGUIAR, 2006). Study Area: Focus on selected sites to include heterogeneity of actors and frontiers São Félix, Santarém, South of Amazonas, Mato Grosso. Methods: - Statistical analysis, regression analysis

METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES Part 3: Construct new multiscale models and scenarios for Amazon for specific land uses (pasture, mechanized agriculture, familiar agriculture). Study Area: Focus on selected sites to include heterogeneity of actors and frontiers São Félix, Santarém, South of Amazonas, Mato Grosso. Methods: - Multiscale, multi-locality, multi-approach framework in TerraME models (Carneiro, 2006; Moreira et al., 2008)