The Path To Full Employment, But Slack Remains

Monthly non-farm payrolls have expanded at an average of 280k since mid-2014…

…which has lifted employment to around 2% above the pre-recession peak

The unemployment rate has edged down to 5.5% from a peak of 10%...

…but the part rate remains depressed, although it has stabilised in the past year…

…while the employment to population ratio has also only partially recovered

Unemployment duration has declined to 13 weeks, its lowest level since 2009…

..while the quit rate – a barometer for worker optimism - is approaching pre-recession levels

Long term unemployment has dropped to 2.7 million people for the first time since 2009

Under-employment has declined significantly but is still stubbornly high

Employment in crisis exposed industries hasn’t fully recovered to pre-recession levels

Average hourly earnings has dipped to sub-2% yoy and is growing only just ahead of core inflation

The Phillips curve has flattened considerably since the financial crisis

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