Enrollment Projections and the Budget Process: A Technique for Smart Planning SCUP-39 Annual Conference Toronto, Canada Toronto, Canada July 20, 2004 Dale Trusheim, Associate Director Office of Institutional Research and Planning University of Delaware Phone: Fax: Carol Rylee, Director Budget Office University of Delaware Phone: Fax:

Summary of Presentation Enrollment Projection Methods UD Enrollment Model Brief Demo of Excel Enrollment Proj Model IR Enrollment Model informs Budget Office Tuition Model Parameters & Relevance of Tuition Model Brief Demo of Tuition Model Questions

Enrollment Projection Methods Ad Hoc Cohort Survival Moving averages Exponential smoothing Time series (Box-Jenkins) Linear regression and auto regression SPSS Trends

UD Method Enrollment in a given semester is simply a function of the behaviors of two groups of students: 1. New Students (Inputs) 2. Continuers

New Students Freshmen Transfers Readmitted ContinuingStudents Total number enrolled from prior semester minus (number of graduates + number of withdrawals) + UD Method

SPRING 2003 FALL 2003 SPRING 2004 FALL 2004 FALL 2002 Historical Data Predicted Data History

Primary task is to develop a model to depict student flow and to generate a prediction for future enrollment MS EXCEL UD Method

Input headcount enrollment for three groups of students (historical average or one-time) –New Freshmen –Transfers –Readmits Predict headcount enrollment for –Continuing students Estimate percentage of full-time and part-time students Excel Model — 3 Components

Enrollment Projection Accuracy

Enrollment Projection Model

Budget Office Model uses separate Excel model to projection tuition income Request Enrollment Model 3-4 times per year Use numbers from enrollment model in spreadsheet model of tuition income Tuition Model

FT/PT mix Resident/NonResident Mix Fall to Spring Attrition Upcharge over 17 credits Grad vs. Undergrad Tuition Model Parameters

Forecast Full-time Undergrad Construct what-if scenarios in regard to enrollment Easily calculate each x% or $x change in tuition Identify source of variances of actual from budgeted. Uses of Model

Accurate budgeting of tuition –Don’t want to underbudget – campus confidence in numbers Is important –Don’t want to overbudget – leads to shortfall in income at year-end Assessment of accuracy of model –Can quickly identify source of variances –Allows fine-tuning of models Relevance of models

Allows viewing of all factors related to enrollment and tuition income in succinct fashion Facilitates comparision of tuition budgets from year to year Relevance of Models

Part-time, Graduate and Special Sessions Model is based on numbers of credit hours by residency. Model is used in years when major changes are anticipated in mix and/or credit hours Otherwise, use projection of prior year actual increased by estimated tuition increase Other than Full-time Tuition

Tuition Projection Model

Questions? Copy of Powerpoint and Excel Models are available at: Questions & Info