Oregon’s Changing Demographics Oregon Commision for the Blind December 13, 2007 Richard Bjelland (503)

Changing Demographics: Impacts to Oregon and the U.S. Are demographic changes taking place? –Changes in Racial / Ethnicity composition?

Presentation Definitions A person of Hispanic or Latino Ethnicity may be of any race Minority represents any of the following: –An individual of any race other than white only –A multiracial individual –A person of Hispanic or Latino Ethnicity Non-Minority or “white only” – A white only non-Hispanic or Latino person

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, International Data Base, Table 094

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population, 1980 to 2000.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population, 1990 to 2000.

California Demographics In 1970, 4 in 5 Californians were white; now whites are in the minority – 44.5 % Only one in three children in California’s public schools is white; 45 % are Latino In Los Angeles, only 10 % are white; 70 % are Latino District F in LAUSD has 60,000 students; 98 % are minorities; and contains Belmont High School - 5,500 students with a 40 % graduation rate Education The Economist Print Edition, April 29th, 2004

Oregon

Immigrants Disperse to New Growth States

Oregon’s Foreign Born as a percent of Total Population in % Percent change in the foreign-born population: % Percent Distribution of Oregon’s Foreign Born by Region

1998 Birth Rates Per Thousand White Non-Hispanic12.3 Asian and Pacific Islander16.4 Black Non-Hispanic18.2 Hispanic24.3 U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, National Vital Statistics Reports, V. 38, No. 3

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population

70% of Oregon’s population live in these 8 counties Source: U.S. Census Bureau Census 2000 and 2005 American Community Survey

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, decennial census of population, 1980 to 2000.

51,094 Hispanic

-12%(46,080)

Cumulative Estimates of the Components of Population Change by Race and Hispanic or Latino Origin for the United States: April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2005 Race and Hispanic or Latino origin Total population change* Natural Increase Net International Migration TotalBirthsDeaths TOTAL POPULATION14,985,8028,651,86121,329,80412,677,9436,333,941.One Race14,304,5008,048,54320,649,21612,600,6736,256,173..White9,748,4545,474,70216,288,56010,813,8584,274,278..Black or African American2,204,4701,710,5443,236,5571,526,013493,542..American Indian and Alaska Native199,150150,041209,15259,11149,171..Asian2,098,350682,925878,407195,4821,415,274..Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander54,07630,33136,5406,20923,908.Two or more races681,302603,318680,58877,27077,768.Race alone or in combination:(1)..White10,370,3786,039,29716,917,72010,878,4234,331,515..Black or African American2,619,1272,098,7563,645,9281,547,172519,704..American Indian and Alaska Native228,539164,497267,035102,53863,893..Asian2,369,911905,8181,124,585218,7671,463,859..Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander82,87646,83962,16015,32136,279 HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN7,380,8464,123,2684,685,371562,1033,257,595 WHITE ALONE, NOT HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN2,789,4411,601,51311,888,32010,286,8071,188,483 HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN % of Change49.3%47.7%22.0%4.4%51.4% WHITE ALONE, NOT HISPANIC OR LATINO ORIGIN %18.6%18.5%55.7%81.1%18.8% (1) 'In combination' means in combination with one or more other races. The sum of the five race groups adds to more than the total population because individuals may report more than one race. Source: Population Division, U.S. Census Bureau

Changing Demographics: Impacts to Oregon and the U.S. Are demographic changes taking place? –Changes in Racial / Ethnicity composition? –Changes in Age and Sex Distributions?

Child-bearing years

Child-bearing years

Changing Demographics: Impacts to Oregon and the U.S. Are demographic changes taking place? –Changes in Racial / Ethnicity composition? –Changes in Age and Sex Distributions? –Changes in Household composition?

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 1960 to 2000, 2006 American Community Survey 65+ = 8.9%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census, 1960 to 2000, 2006 American Community Survey

Changing Demographics: Impacts to Oregon and the U.S. Are demographic changes taking place? What are impacts of demographic changes?

Source: Pew Hispanic Center Study - Suro and Passel

Changing Demographics Impacts on Educational Attainment An Example of Impacts Under the Following Assumptions Past High School Students High School Graduation Rate % Graduating High School % HS Graduates Obtaining College Degree % College Graduates of All High School Students % of All HS Students not Graduating High School Hispanic10%50%5.00%15%0.75%5.00% NH Minority10%60%6.00%25%1.50%4.00% White NH80% 64.00%40%25.60%16.00% Total100% 76.00% 27.85%25.00% Future (using California's current student ratios) Hispanic45%50%22.50%15%3.38%22.50% NH Minority22%60%13.20%25%3.30%8.80% White NH33%80%26.40%40%10.56%6.60% Total100% 62.10% 17.24%37.90% In this scenario * 38% decrease in percent graduating from college * 52% increase in percent of students not graduating high school

Educational Attainment vs. Earnings High school dropouts on average earn $12,000 per year, half of a high school graduate, and one third of those with more than a high school degree They will earn ~$260,000 less than a high school graduate and pay $60,000 less in taxes over a lifetime Source: Cecilia Rouse, NBER - The Labor Market Consequences of an Inadequate Education

Source: Pew Hispanic Center Study - Suro and Passel

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000

U.S. Congress. Congressional Budget Office. 2002

101% 27%

Confidential and Proprietary. Copyright © 2007 by Educational Testing Service. All rights reserved. America’s Perfect Storm Irwin Kirsch ETS National Press Club Washington, D.C. February 5, 2007

Confidential and Proprietary. Copyright © 2007 by Educational Testing Service. All rights reserved. Three Forces Are Changing Our Nation’s Future Inadequate literacy and numeracy skills among large segments of our student and adult populations An ongoing shift in the demographic profile of our population, powered by the highest immigration rates in nearly a century The continuing evolution of the economy and the nation’s job structure, requiring higher levels of skills from an increasing proportion of workers

Confidential and Proprietary. Copyright © 2007 by Educational Testing Service. All rights reserved. Half of America’s adults lack literacy skills needed for the 21st century. All AdultsAsianBlackHispanic White Percentage of Adults Years Old at: Level 1Level 2Level 3Levels 4/5

Major Demographic Impacts Racial/ethnic composition of public school students changing rapidly in Oregon Minority population generally less educated with lower earnings capacity White educated Baby Boomers begin retiring in 2010 Work force growth will mostly come from minority population - primarily Hispanic Federal and state revenue will be negatively impacted unless minority earnings increase Ratio of workers to retired persons is decreasing - putting pressure on retirement plan funding

Demographic Conclusions U.S./Oregon is rapidly changing from primarily a nation of white non-Hispanic persons to a racially and ethnically diverse population Hispanic/Latino and Asian populations are the fastest growing; white only the slowest Hispanic/Latino population increases now account for half of U.S. population growth Planning and policy decisions in education, housing, social services, etc. should reflect these patterns of growth

Changing Demographics: Impacts to Oregon and the U.S. Are demographic changes taking place? What are impacts of demographic changes? View this presentation at aphics.shtml Richard Bjelland (503)