Adding Value to National Climate Products at the Local Level: A Pilot Partnership Program in Tucson, AZ David Brown, Michael Crimmins, and Gregg Garfin David Brown, Michael Crimmins, and Gregg Garfin CLIMAS Project, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth CLIMAS Project, Institute for the Study of Planet Earth University of Arizona University of Arizona “CAR-B-Q”

Overview – A Proposed New Partnership between the University of Arizona and Tucson NWSFO Background Background –CSD Partnership Program –Drought Monitor Framework for Collaboration Framework for Collaboration –Operational expertise of NWS –Climate services expertise of CLIMAS Examples of adding local value to national/regional-scale climate products Examples of adding local value to national/regional-scale climate products Inclusion of stakeholders Inclusion of stakeholders Obstacles to partnership implementation Obstacles to partnership implementation

Background – CSD Partnership Program Climate Services Division of NWS: Climate Services Division of NWS: –Develops policy & requirements for climate prediction products –Solicits user feedback on climate products & services –Liaisons with other federal agencies, universities, state climatologists, private sector, etc. CSD Partnership Program CSD Partnership Program –“To acquaint potential architects of local partnerships for climate services with the source of climate prediction products (CPC) and the Headquarters team (CSD) that supports these partnerships”

The Partnership Program Experience 6 days at NOAA Headquarters, 4 days at Climate Prediction Center 6 days at NOAA Headquarters, 4 days at Climate Prediction Center Meet one-on-one with CSD and CPC personnel Meet one-on-one with CSD and CPC personnel Participate in staff meetings, forecast discussions, conference calls, etc. Participate in staff meetings, forecast discussions, conference calls, etc. Develop plan for local climate services partnership Develop plan for local climate services partnership Mike & Dave CLIMAS Program June 2003 “KLIMATE KAMP”

Other “KLIMATE KAMP” Activities

Background – U.S. Drought Monitor Core CLIMAS architects of potential NWS partnership (Brown, Crimmins, Garfin) have experience adding local value to national product Core CLIMAS architects of potential NWS partnership (Brown, Crimmins, Garfin) have experience adding local value to national product

Framework for a Local Climate Services Partnership: CLIMAS & Tucson NWS Monthly climate discussion based on CPC in-house monthly review Monthly climate discussion based on CPC in-house monthly review –Focused on adding local knowledge and value to coarser-scale climate products Draw upon operational expertise of NWS, climate services expertise of CLIMAS Draw upon operational expertise of NWS, climate services expertise of CLIMAS Get key local users, “disseminators” of climate information on the same page Get key local users, “disseminators” of climate information on the same page

Structure of Monthly Climate Discussion Review of previous month’s CPC forecasts and verification products Review of previous month’s CPC forecasts and verification products (No) Forecast Observation

Structure of Monthly Climate Discussion Review of previous month’s CPC forecasts and verification products Review of previous month’s CPC forecasts and verification products Discussion of current local climate & environmental conditions Discussion of current local climate & environmental conditions Presentation of newly-released CPC (and other) outlooks Presentation of newly-released CPC (and other) outlooks Production of summary document, Web material for stakeholders Production of summary document, Web material for stakeholders

Types of climate products where local knowledge & discussion can add value Drought Monitor Drought Monitor

Types of climate products where local knowledge & discussion can add value Drought Monitor Drought Monitor Drought Outlook Drought Outlook

Types of climate products where local knowledge & discussion can add value Drought Monitor Drought Monitor Drought Outlook Drought Outlook Fire Outlook Fire Outlook

Types of climate products where local knowledge & discussion can add value Drought Monitor Drought Monitor Drought Outlook Drought Outlook Fire Outlook Fire Outlook Streamflow, snowpack, reservoir levels, etc. Streamflow, snowpack, reservoir levels, etc.

Types of climate products where local knowledge & discussion can add value Drought Monitor Drought Monitor Drought Outlook Drought Outlook Fire Outlook Fire Outlook Streamflow, Snowpack, Reservoir Levels, etc. Streamflow, Snowpack, Reservoir Levels, etc. Disease Incidence Disease Incidence West Nile Virus Activity as of March 1, 2004

Also, benefits to discussing CPC outlooks with disparate user groups What do outlooks really mean? What do outlooks really mean? Some users have little knowledge of CPC forecast tools Some users have little knowledge of CPC forecast tools –Tropical variability (MJO, SSTs, etc.) –Teleconnections –Model output

Potential Participants in Monthly Climate Discussion UA (CLIMAS) and Tucson (NWS) UA (CLIMAS) and Tucson (NWS) Other UA Climate Scientists Other UA Climate Scientists –Atmospheric Science –Hydrology & Water Resources Research –Tree-ring Lab (Paleoclimatology) Tucson/Pima County Stakeholders Tucson/Pima County Stakeholders –USGS, UA Cooperative Extension –Pima County Flood Control & DEQ –Local Media (TV & Newspaper)

Potential Monthly Products Joint UA-NWS Press Release Joint UA-NWS Press Release –Press briefings also possible as needed Web-based monthly summary Web-based monthly summary –Could augment current NWS monthly climate “round-up”, CLIMAS monthly climate outlooks

Obstacles to Implementation NWS concerned about time commitment NWS concerned about time commitment –“We already do this” –Need support from regional (Salt Lake City) and national (Silver Spring) offices that this kind of activity is worthwhile Ownership of idea and permanence Ownership of idea and permanence –Partnership initiated by CLIMAS, but… –…ideally, want Tucson Climate Focal Point to take lead and continue activity in future

Status Report Had preliminary meeting in February 2004 Had preliminary meeting in February 2004 –CLIMAS (Brown, Crimmins, Garfin) and Tucson NWS (MIC, SOO; CFP absent) –Presented proposal to NWS –“Agreement” to move towards implementation Brown designated as CPASW emissary to plea for feedback Brown designated as CPASW emissary to plea for feedback April 2004 trial run tentatively planned April 2004 trial run tentatively planned

Thank You p.s. The high temperature in Tucson today is 85 F