Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 1 Uncertainty of spatial-temporal frontiers of socio-economic systems, state identity, economic forecasting: case of Russia Georgy Kleyner Deputy Director of Central Economics and Mathematics Institute, Moscow

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 2 Introduction (1) ●The aim of my presentation is to acquaint you with the new theoretical and methodological approach to the analysis of social and economic systems of various level. This approach is developing within several last years in Central Economics and Mathematics Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences. ● The method was applied to analysis of the enterprises, and to the analysis of investment projects, strategic planning, corporate governance, and other systems. It can be applied to the analysis the features and future of the countries. ● So wide sphere of application is explained by the given approach is based on a new paradigm in the economic science recently offered by J.Kornai – a system paradigm.

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 3 Introduction (2) ● Economic evolution of the countries is mainly defined by basic features, invariants of the country. ● The ordinary approach to the comparative analysis of countries is the “efficiency analysis”, i.e. comparison of economic results with expenses. The countries are compared on GDP per capita, on square meter of territory etc. On this indicator all countries can be located on one axis. Then it is clear, and than we can speak about catching up development. ● The other method is the “effectiveness analysis”, i.e. comparison of the reached results with objects in view. But their purposes of the country can be subjective. Is it possible to avoid subjectivity? Basically it is possible, if these purposes represent the mission of the country. But can we speak about the mission of the country? In our opinion, we can.

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 4 Plan of the presentation 1. System paradigm in economics 2. Basic typology of economic systems 3. The core competences of systems of different types 4. The case of Russia

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 5 System paradigm ● The essence of a system paradigm is that economy functioning is considered from the point of view of processes of creation, interactions, transformations and liquidations of economic systems. As system we will understand rather steady in space and in time a part of the world around possessing properties of external integrity and internal variety ● Economic systems are systems, creating and functioning to provide processes of production, distribution, an exchange and consumption of the goods. ● The enterprises, regions and countries are examples of economic systems. But it is possible to speak about systems and in connection with environments, institutions, processes, projects etc.

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 6 System frontiers ● At the beginning it is necessary to define basic characteristics of the systems for the classification. The basic characteristics should concern first of all features of a border of the system in the spatial-time continuum. ● One can see that different systems have different degree the definiteness of the natural border system. Such system as the enterprise, as a rule, has the fixed spatial border, and has no fixed time border (according to a principle «o ngoing concern»). Economic systems of institutions (for example, the Civil code), have no neither certain spatial, nor certain time border. On the contrary, projects, i.e. the sets of the actions directed on achievement of the concrete goal (examle: building), as a rule, have definite border in time and in space.

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 7 System frontiers: coordinate illustration ● Let's set co-ordinates axises (p, q) where the axis of abscisses reflects the degree of uncertainty of spatial border p(s) of the systems s, and axis of ordinates q reflect the degree of uncertainty of time borders q(s). Every system s can be displayed in the form of a point (p (s), q (s)) on this co-ordinate plane. ● p = ∞ is the case of full uncertainty of the spatial borders of the system, ● p = -∞ is the case of full definiteness of the spatial borders of the system, ● q = ∞ is the case of full uncertainty of the time borders of the system, ● q = -∞ is the case of full definiteness of the time borders of the system, ● p = q = 0 is the case of “normal” degree of definiteness of the time and spatial borders of the system (From the point of view of an observer). Real economic system combines the properties of object, environment, process and project systems.

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 8 Basic typology of economic systems. Examples

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 9 System paradigm: basic typology of economic systems

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 10 One consequence from basic typology of systems: typical products of economic systems Typical products of activity of object systems are the goods. Typical products of activity of environment systems are service. Typical products of activity of process systems are works. Typical products of activity of project systems are transformations of economic systems.

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 11 General functions of economic systems ● For the description of the basic functions of economic systems we set system so-called variety characteristics of economic space. We will speak about uniformity of space if moving from one area in another only slightly changes economic indicators. We will speak about uniformity of time if moving from one period in another only slightly changes economic indicators. Accordingly there are characteristics of heterogeneity of space and time. ● The functioning of economic systems of different types changes these variety characteristics ● Object systems reduce uniformity of space and increase uniformity of time. ● Environment systems increase uniformity and spaces, and time. ●Process systems increase uniformity of space and reduce uniformity of time. ● At last, project systems reduce uniformity and spaces, and time.

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 12 Core competences of economic systems (black arrows – basic functions, transparent arrows additional functions)

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 13 Core economic functions of economic systems of different types Mission of object systems is the organization of diverse elements in a single whole during regular production. Mission of environment systems is communications and coordination, creation of conditions for an exchange between various components of economy, including transactions. Mission of process systems is harmonization of activity and a condition of all economic systems. Mission of project systems is innovative transformation, power feed of other kinds of systems.

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 14 Examples of different types of countries. Mission of Russia ●USA is project system; ● Japan is object system; ● China is process system; ● Russia is environment system. ● So, Russia is the environment country. The huge territory, intermediate position between the East and the West, between archaic and modern cultures determine specificity of Russia in the international community. Development of Russia goes in both directions: to a modern society, on one side, and to archaic society, on other side.

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 15 Conclusions. Mission of Russia/ And what is the mission of you country? ● Mission of Russia is to connect Europe and Asia, past and future. Russia represents an exhibition of times. One can find the archaic public fragments and modern elements of world future in Russia. ● Nearly always in the country Russia history the country had a mixed economy and the mixed society. External mission of Russia as environment county is a) to do the global world space more homogeneous, b) in the certain degree, the time more continuous and in whole to do the world more integral.

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 16 ● And what is the system type of your country? ● And what is the mission of your country?! Thank you for your attention!

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 17 Типы экономических систем (описание)

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 18 Свойства основных типов экономических систем

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 19 Типовые экономические системы Мир типовых экономических систем состоит из систем следующих четырех видов: u 1) «объекты» - юридические и физические лица, организации, предприятия, их группы, государства, союзы государств и т.п.; u 2) «процессы» – последовательные и более или менее эволюционные изменения состояния тех или иных фиксированных сред или объектов и их групп; u 3) «среды» – системы взаимодействия экономических объектов и место протекания экономических процессов; u 4) «проекты» – относительно кратковременные существенные изменения состояния или положения экономических систем.

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 20 Основные виды издержек экономических систем Виды издержек в экономике: u производственные (издержки систем объектного типа); u трансакционные (издержки систем средового типа); u гармонизационные (издержки систем процессного типа); u проектно-инновационные (издержки систем проектного типа).

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 21 Основные подходы в экономической политике 1. «Объектный подход» - поддержка функционирования и развития социально-экономических систем объектного типа (предприятий, организаций, регионов и т.п.). 2. «Средовой подход» - поддержка функционирования и развития межобъектных сред (институтов), стимулирующих «правильное» поведение объектов. 3. «Процессный подход» - поддержка процессов распространения от одного объекта к другому тех или иных изменений (инноваций). 4. «Проектный подход» - поддержка и финансирование проектов.

Центральный экономико-математический институт РАН 22 Предприятие как объект системного анализа. Синергетическая парадигма (1)