UNCLASSIFIED UK MOD Strategic Defence & Security Review Analysis Support Introduction –SDSR Background Analysis through the SDSR –Supporting decision-makers …and since Some Observations

UNCLASSIFIED National Security Strategy Strategic Defence and Security Review (SDSR)

UNCLASSIFIED Strategic Context Britain’s Distinctive Role National Security Risk Assessment National Security Tasks & Planning Guidelines Adaptable Britain –Respond to highest priority risks –Respond to low probability but very high impact risks –Focus on upstream activity –Retain a broad spectrum of security and defence capabilities –Strengthen relationships with key allies –Coordinate and integrate whole of Government response National Security Strategy

UNCLASSIFIED But it’s the economy, stupid UK Personnel Costs –Average 1.7% above inflation per annum UK Equipment & Support costs –3-5% above inflation per annum The spend, in real terms has remained constant. Defence costs in excess of inflation erode buying power

UNCLASSIFIED Uncertainty: adaptability; readiness Future Conflict: intelligence; precision; mobility Independence: UK; Overseas Territories Multilateralism: risk management Combat Focused: reductions in non-front line areas Affordability Outcomes - SDSR Themes

UNCLASSIFIED Defence Head Office structure

UNCLASSIFIED May SDSR Synthesis (DSG and NSC) Policy Choices Capability Choices Oct 2010 Work strands Ideas JuneJulyAugustSeptOct Defence Reform Review Defence Acquisition Reform Programme NovDecJan Sep 2011 National Security Strategy Spending Review Defence Industry & Technology Policy Green Paper White Paper PR11 Detail Apr 2011 SDSR Headlines Implementation CSR Overview of analytical support to SDSR Technical advice and alignment with Dstl and S&T strategies Advice and analysis to support 18 of 41 work strands Synthesising work strand ideas. Force structure risk assessment NSS Advice on cyber & horizon scanning Highlight, and help mitigate, risks of PR11 options Learn lessons to improve support to future SDSRs Workshops with S&T stakeholders to shape strategy

UNCLASSIFIED Negotiations with Treasury reduced savings target from 10-20% to 7.5% –Cost analysis helped explain to VCDS, Strategy and Finance staff why MoD’s plans needed to reduce by 25-40% to achieve savings of 10-20% Cost Analysis aided the understanding of the scale of the financial savings

UNCLASSIFIED Cost Analysis aided the understanding of the scale of the financial savings Negotiations with Treasury reduced savings target from 10-20% to 7.5% –Cost analysis helped explain to VCDS, Strategy and Finance staff why MoD’s plans needed to reduce by 25-40% to achieve savings of 10-20%

UNCLASSIFIED Policy Choices Prioritise Capabilities and shape the force structure to achieve affordability HomelandInfluenceInterventionStabilisation Matching Resource to Aspiration Increasing Levels of Ambition Developing the Defence Response

UNCLASSIFIED Analysis Tools aided the understanding of the relationship between Planning Assumptions, Costs and Force Structure

UNCLASSIFIED The Armed Forces in the future will be sized and shaped to conduct Standing Commitments plus: –an enduring stabilisation operation –one non-enduring complex intervention –one non-enduring simple intervention Chosen by National Security Council from 3 affordable postures developed using Dstl FaST tool Set at 2 interventions after analysis showed that 3 were unaffordable and unlikely historically Analysis helped inform the development of Defence Planning Assumptions

UNCLASSIFIED Analysis Supported the development of Future Force 2020

UNCLASSIFIED Developed initially by DG Strategy, drawing upon Dstl analysis –Scenario-based analysis generated insights into force requirements –Force structure analysis highlighted differences between ‘ideal’ DPA force structure and 2015 post-Afghanistan force –Synthesis of workstrand paper ideas Identified 5 key questions that drive the shape of the force Generated three coherent force structures for 10% and 20% savings levels Highlighted constraints and dependencies between policy aspirations and capability Tested forces emerging from Senior Decision Maker discussions –Informed VCDS Senior Judgement Panel debates on the value of major force elements Capability analysis informed the understanding of risk within and across the Defence Planning Assumptions Analysis Supported the development of Future Force 2020

UNCLASSIFIED Output Evolution Increasing number of levels of information –From Whole Force Structure, Capability Packages / Areas, down to Force Elements Increasing range of tailored communication methods –Including; handouts, interactive briefings, supported desk level discussions, memos Increasing amount of interaction –From set handout or brief to interactive briefs holding a depth of information as required Increasing combinations of outputs –Optimisation and risk picture, joint outputs with other specific studies (e.g. Joint Fires) Impact of possible Policy Choices Changes to Policy Capability Audit Risks Impact of PR11 Measures Risk in FF20 Understanding new Policy by Capability Area Impact of PR11 SDSR Measures Dynamic Demonstrator Cost Effectiveness of Force Elements By area with specific investigations Risks in for a given Force Structure against a given Policy Investigation into specific areas for IAB submissions, e.g. JCA, SCAVENGER, AH Shortfalls & Affluences in Force Structure Optimised Force Structures

UNCLASSIFIED Whew!

UNCLASSIFIED But....the world moves on... Funny old thing... –Some residual variance on the programme –Reality of reaping all of the predicted savings –Overall size and shape of the Army post Afg –New CDM (Bernard Grey) cost realism –FOREX/Fuel The “3 Month Exercise” –Equipment Affordability –Reserves Review –Basing study –Implications of ‘Arab Spring’

UNCLASSIFIED MoD needed to better understand the requirement to re-balance the books –Responsive Cost Analysis Further Senior Judgement Panels recommended areas where reductions could and couldn't be taken –Dstl provided 8 perspectives on Force Structure & Capability –Costs, risks against Defence Planning Assumptions, and implications in terms of historic operations context SofS announcement 18 th July 2011 Analysis in support of the 3 Month Exercise

UNCLASSIFIED Some Analysis Observations... The challenge of ‘real decision-support’ vs ‘doing studies’ –The use of analysis is not a given –Has to prove itself useful and credible –Timely and accessible Value of ‘deployed analysts’ Foundation of the evidence base and tools –Force Structure Cost Model –Force Structure analysis tools –Strategic Balance of Investment & capability analysis Value of visualisation techniques & responsive tools Flexibility, responsiveness and determination

UNCLASSIFIED Questions?