© 2004 Nanotechnology & Society: Times of Change Mike Treder Executive Director Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Sao Paulo, Brazil October 18, 2004

© 2004 Graphing History Does history (the record of human change) occur in a straight line? Time Change

© 2004 Graphing History No, it is a series of steps. Time Change

© 2004 Spoken Language Written Language Printing Press Steam Power Graphing History No, it is a series of steps. (Prehistory) Time Change

© 2004 Industrial Revolution The last two centuries have seen a series of steps we call the Industrial Revolution(s). Time Change Steam Engines Computers Railways Automobiles (Middle Ages)

© 2004 Industrial Revolutions FirstRevolution First Revolution(1780–1840) Based in United Kingdom  Steam Engine  Textile Industry  Mechanical Engineering

© 2004 Industrial Revolutions SecondRevolution Second Revolution(1840–1900) Based in Europe – England, France, Germany  Railways  Steel Industry

© 2004 Industrial Revolutions ThirdRevolution Third Revolution(1900–1950) Based in United States  Electric Engine  Heavy Chemicals  Automobiles  Consumer Durables

© 2004 Industrial Revolutions FourthRevolution Fourth Revolution(1950–Present) Based in Pacific Basin – California, Japan  Synthetics  Organic Chemicals (Oil)  Computers

© 2004 Computers Graphing History Each industrial revolution marked a major change— a big step in social, political, and economic history. Time Change Automobiles Railways Steam Engines

© 2004 Graphing History But if we look more closely, we can see that these steps actually are s-shaped curves. Time Change

© 2004 Graphing History But if we look more closely, we can see that these steps actually are s-shaped curves. Time Change

© 2004 Graphing History But if we look more closely, we can see that these steps actually are s-shaped curves. Time Change

© 2004 Graphing History But if we look more closely, we can see that these steps actually are s-shaped curves. Time Change

© 2004 Societal Impacts Time Industrial Revolutions

© 2004 The Next Industrial Revolution FifthRevolution Fifth Revolution (2010? – ??) Based in Developing World? China? India? Brazil?  Nanotechnology  Molecular Manufacturing

© 2004 Societal Impacts Time (Measured in decades) Industrial Revolutions

© 2004 Societal Impacts Time (Measured in YEARS) Molecular Manufacturing Revolution

© 2004 Societal Impacts Time Accelerated Impacts Industrial Revolutions Molecular Manufacturing Revolution

© 2004 Societal Impacts Time The Next Big Step Steam Engines Computers Railways Automobiles (Middle Ages)

© 2004 Societal Impacts Time The Next Big Step Steam Engines Computers Railways Automobiles (Middle Ages) Nanotechnology

© 2004 Societal Impacts Time Accelerated Impacts Industrial Revolutions Molecular Manufacturing Revolution

© 2004 Societal Impacts Time The Next Big Step Steam Engines Computers Railways Automobiles (Middle Ages) Nanotechnology

© 2004 Nanotechnology Societal Impacts Time The Next Big Step Steam Engines Computers Railways Automobiles (Middle Ages)

© 2004 The combined impacts of nanotechnology will equal the Industrial Revolutions of the last two centuries — but with all that change compressed into just a few years. Change is Coming

© 2004 The ability to build anything we can design, by manipulating molecules under direct computer control, will be a jolt to the system. Jolt to the System Molecular Mill image courtesy of Eric Drexler

© 2004 The ability to build anything we can design, by manipulating molecules under direct computer control, will be a jolt to the system. Jolt to the System Image by John Burch, Lizard Fire Studios A transformative, disruptive, discontinuous jolt to ecological, economic, political, and social systems — on a local, national, and global scale.

© 2004 Nanotechnology is…  Not just new products — a new means of production  Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing systems — exponential proliferation  Vastly accelerated product improvement — cheap rapid prototyping  Affects all industries and economic sectors — general-purpose technology  Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital cost — economic discontinuity  Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption  Impacts will cross borders — global transformation

© 2004 Inside a Nanofactory

© 2004 Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide...

© 2004 Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide... Lifesaving medical robots or Untraceable weapons of mass destruction

© 2004 Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide... Lifesaving medical robots or Untraceable weapons of mass destruction Networked computers for everyone in the world or Networked cameras so governments can watch our every move

© 2004 Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide... Lifesaving medical robots or Untraceable weapons of mass destruction Networked computers for everyone in the world or Networked cameras so governments can watch our every move Trillions of dollars of abundance or A vicious scramble to own everything

© 2004 Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide... Lifesaving medical robots or Untraceable weapons of mass destruction Networked computers for everyone in the world or Networked cameras so governments can watch our every move Trillions of dollars of abundance or A vicious scramble to own everything Rapid invention of wondrous products or Weapons development fast enough to destabilize any arms race

© 2004 Benefits + Risks An automated, self-contained factory could provide... Lifesaving medical robots AND Untraceable weapons of mass destruction Networked computers for everyone in the world AND Networked cameras so governments can watch our every move Trillions of dollars of abundance AND A vicious scramble to own everything Rapid invention of wondrous products AND Weapons development fast enough to destabilize any arms race

© 2004 Innovation & Economy  Not just new products — a new means of production  Manufacturing systems that make more manufacturing systems — exponential proliferation  Vastly accelerated product improvement — cheap rapid prototyping  Affects all industries and economic sectors — general-purpose technology  Inexpensive raw materials, potentially negligible capital cost — economic discontinuity  Portable, desktop-size factories — social disruption  Impacts will cross borders — global transformation

© 2004 Dangers  Economic disruption from an abundance of cheap products  Economic oppression from artificially inflated prices  Personal risk from criminal or terrorist use  Constant intrusive surveillance  Oppression from abusive restrictions  Social disruption from new products/lifestyles  Unstable arms race leading to war  Collective environmental damage from unregulated products  Black market in molecular manufacturing (increases other risks)  Competing nanotechnology programs (increases other risks)... and many more

© 2004 Rapid Progress Nucleic acid / protein engineering NASA study on machine self-replication Solution-phase artificial molecular machines Tool fabrication process for diamond mechanosynthesis Russian roadmap Drexler’s roadmap Nanofactory design

© 2004 The Next Industrial Revolution FifthRevolution Fifth Revolution (2010? – ??) Based in Developing World? China? India? Brazil?  Nanotechnology  Molecular Manufacturing

© 2004 Nanotechnology Leadership What it WILL NOT require: Heavy industry Scarce natural resources Massive capital

© 2004 Nanotechnology Leadership What it WILL require: Highly educated scientists and engineers Long-term (5-15 years) dedicated effort

© 2004 Nanotechnology Leadership What it SHOULD require: Openness Cooperation

© 2004 What is Needed Now  Awareness of the issues  Technical research  Policy research

CRN Thirty Essential Studies Chris Phoenix, Director of Research Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Copyright 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Brooklyn, NY, USACRN Thirty Essential Studies Chris Phoenix, Director of Research Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Copyright 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology Brooklyn, NY, USA

© A collaborative project to study the facts and implications of advanced nanotechnology — a website for researchers worldwide to work together, helping to build an understanding of the technologies, their effects, and what to do about them.

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Obrigado muito muito! Mike Treder Executive Director Center for Responsible Nanotechnology