GROWING A BETTER FUTURE FOOD JUSTICE IN A RESOURCE CONSTRAINED WORLD Tenth RRI Dialogue on Forests, Governance and Climate change: Common approaches to dealing with the challenges of food security and climate change Tom van der Lee

HUNGER IS ON THE RISE AGAIN After decades of grindingly slow progress in the fight to eradicate hunger, it has begun to rise again. Dramatically. Had the trend continued, 413 million fewer people would be hungry today. Hunger is a bellwether for a deeper malaise driving shocks and fragility: Depletion of resource base Gathering climate change Dysfunctional markets Dysfunctional finance Capture of policymaking Looming energy crisis

A VISION FOR THE FUTURE

4 CHALLENGES 1.Increased demand 1.Scramble for resources 1.Climate change 1.Price volatility

ECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINTS OF FOOD

RESOURCES ARE RUNNING OUT Arable land per capita has almost halved since 1960 Demand for water is set to increase 30% by 2030 – placing agriculture on a collision course with industry

LANDGRABBING The 2008 food price crisis kicked-off the new scramble for land But it has continued unabated – 2009 saw 22 years worth of investment in SSA in 12 months But drivers are complex: Supply side Genuine development Security of supply Financial bet on land Estimates suggest 80% of investments remain undeveloped

CLIMATE CHANGE 1.Climate change poses a threat to production 1.A brake on yield growth – sub- Saharan Africa could experience declines in yield of per cent by More extreme weather events 3.Farmers dealing with creeping climate change in seasons 1.Farming threatens the climate 1.Agriculture accounts for per cent of greenhouse gases. 2.Biggest driver: land use change In Indonesia, every minute palm oil plantations eat one more hectare rainforest

RISING FOOD PRICES

TOWARDS A NEW PROSPERITY 1.A new agricultural future 2.A new ecological future 3.Improved national and global governance

SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE: THE OPPORTUNITY Hunger, vulnerability, poverty are concentrated in rural areas Low smallholder yields are a function of low resource use, not inefficiency So investing to increase access to resources will increase production and close the yield gap But it will also build resilience and increase equity

INTERNATIONAL REFORM 1.Stop land grabbing 2.End biofuels support 3.Regulate speculation 4.Build food reserves 5.Expand social protection 6.Stop trade-distorting agricultural subsidies

GROWING A BETTER FUTURE FOOD JUSTICE IN A RESOURCE CONSTRAINED WORLD Tenth RRI Dialogue on Forests, Governance and Climate change: Common approaches to dealing with the challenges of food security and climate change Tom van der Lee