Analytical developments: Economic modelling for reshaping care for older people (RSCOP) Ellen Lynch Health Analytical Services Scottish Government

Overview Brief background of RSCOP How the social care data is being used Future plans

Background of RSCOP Proportion of older people in the population increasing over the next couple of decades Need to be able to plan how care can be delivered Current pattern of care not sustainable Health ASD asked to model different scenarios………

How the social care data is being used Provides a baseline of current care provision in the population –Home care clients based on old individual data (age, gender and number of hours) –Care home residents (age, gender) –Detailed individual level data important for economic model age bands would have masked important differences in levels of care for people, following graphs demonstrate……….

Future plans 2010 home care data will be heavily used Individual level data for every local authority Examine IoRN scores compared to hours of home care in trying to get a better understanding of levels of need Examine the effect of telecare on home care hours Telecare baseline number for the first time – used to model various scenarios Re-ablement data from Edinburgh Longitudinal analysis – how long does re-ablement / telecare delay the need for other services Incorporating linked health & social care Economic model will keep evolving over time

Further information & contacts care/reshapinghttp:// care/reshaping Paudric Osborne (Economist) Sean Eales (Policy)

Analytical developments: data linking for statistics and research Ellen Lynch Health Analytical Services Scottish Government

Overview Background – why do we want to link data? How the Home Care and SDS (Direct Payments) data fits in? Summary of progress over the last 5 months Next steps

Why do we want to link data for statistics and research? Need to do much more in developing our understanding of the relationships between social care, housing and health For example: –Evidence for Reshaping Care for Older People, Dementia Strategy……… –Evidence of care pathways –Evidence of if it’s the same people with high health and social care costs –Evidence of combinations of care & support packages

Other reasons for doing data linkage for statistics and research Improved data quality and integrity Making better use of available data Communication benefits Research benefits including cost

How the Home Care and SDS (Direct Payments) data fits in Individual level data from 32 local authorities - important stepping stone SG able to link between Home Care and Direct Payments for the first time Disclosure control methodology developed (used to maintain confidentiality in statistical analysis) Individual Home Care and Direct Payments data could be linked to other (health/housing) sources using personal identifiers with local authority approval………

Progress over the last 5 months Making sure any data linkage complies with legislation Privacy and ethical considerations Learning from international best practice Joining up with ISD Scotland and the General Register Office for Scotland (GROS) and other Scottish Government (SG) analytical services to put in place a sustainable solution Working group – SG, GROS, ISD Scotland, COSLA, ADSW involvement

Next steps Plan to put working group papers and minutes on web Establishing a data linkage unit, separate from those who will analyse the data Review the role of the Privacy Advisory Committee (PAC) – currently only covers health and GROS data Role of the Information Commissioner’s Office Establish Governance arrangements Communication & co-operation with local authorities, health boards, general public, academics Set up safe havens for data analysis Develop data linkage methodology Pilot