Accession and Promotion Planning Overview CAPT Julie McNally Medical Department & Nurse Corps OCM 14 Nov 2012

Officer Accession Planning Demand Signal End Strength & Fiscal Controls Source Factors for Accession Planning: “Locked”: USNA, NROTC, STA-21, MM, OCS SWO (N) “Flexible”: OCS and Direct Accessions (DA) Fleet Requirements N10 Planners OPA Approves Plan N1 OCM Input N13 Accession Plan Projected Yield to Planner USNA NROTC STA21 OCS MMR, IST, Recalls, Directs Community Factors Other Sources

The Balancing of Accessions: How we get there… Requirements What do we need? Each OCM conducts in depth analysis and presents a defense for accession need Influences CNP Direction Community sponsor input What is the trade space? (LOCKED VICE FLEXIBLE) Stated need applied against guidance & fiscal constraints Start with a number (4150) and work backwards by determining what areas can be affected not “locked” or constrained by CNP policy, OCS contracts, multi-year training pipelines Multiple Courses of Action are developed and briefed

“Locked” Accession Sources USNA output programmed 4 years prior. NROTC similar, but with some flexibility with College Program and 2 year scholarships. STA-21 programmed 3 years in advance. Thus, OCS (DA & BDCP) is used as a “throttle” to cover shortfalls in other programs. One of the few Direct Accession sources that can be cut within the FY.

Accession Source Constraints Roughly 87% of the FY13 accession quotas are constrained by prior planning FY14-FY16 ~ 60% constrained against total of 4000 Accession Tradespace is Limited in the 12-24 Months Prior to Execution

Excerpt - FY 13 Accession Plan Yellow indicates “Locked” Accession sources

Officer Promotion Basics Promotions are a function of: Requirements Defined by Officer Programmed Authorizations (OPA) Includes both designator discrete and non discrete 1000/1020/1050 OPA Vacancies Promotions, Retirements, Resig’s, Lat Transfers Legal limits DOPMA Grade Table - Limits the number of CAPTs, CDRs, & LCDRs based on total officer strength

Legal Limits Grade LAW DoD Navy OPP FLOW OPP FLOW OPP FLOW CAPT CDR (Title 10 §623) OPP FLOW DoD (DODINST 1320.13) OPP FLOW Navy (SECNAVINST 1420.1B) OPP FLOW CAPT CDR LCDR LT LTJG “Relatively similar opportunity for promotion in each of the next five years” 50% 21-23 yrs 70% 15-17 yrs 80% 9-11 yrs AFQ 3.5 yrs AFQ 1.5 yrs 40-60% 21-23 yrs 60-80% 15-17 yrs 70-90% 9-11 yrs AFQ 4 yrs AFQ 2 yrs

Promotion Basics Flowpoint: Average years of service when a due course officer is promoted to the next grade Opportunity: the in-zone possibility of selection Selection Rate: Percentage of all officers selected for promotion Selections (AZ + IZ + BZ) Total Officers in Zone Max below zone - 10% (statutory limit) No above zone limits (by law or policy) All officers on the Active Duty List are considered = Selection Rate

50 Selections for Promotion Promotion Basics Start with FY beginning inventory Add gains (lateral transfer, accessions) Subtract losses (retire, resign, lateral transfer etc.) Compare total against FY Authorized Strength If total < Auth Strength, select the difference If total > Auth Strength, no selections Auth Strength 600 Sum - 550 Difference + 50 50 Selections for Promotion Begin INV 600 Gains + 10 Losses - 60 Sum = 550

Promotion Basics Example - If 50 is the fixed number of promotions... Zone size = #Promotions  Percent Opportunity 125 = 50  40% 100 = 50  50% 83 = 50  60% Opportunity, Zone Size, and Flowpoint are all related Higher OPPORTUNITY means smaller ZONES, which means longer (increased) FLOWPOINT Larger zones will increase the FOS rate

Questions/ Discussion