Charles Chen Miro Curac Antonio Gomez Dwight Huang Len Tiso Segway Final Presentation “Can Segway Enter the Tornado?” Management 266A Product Strategy in the Digital Economy Charles Chen Miro Curac Antonio Gomez Dwight Huang Len Tiso
Presentation Overview Introduction Strategic Assessment: Moore Framework Stakeholders Critical Issues Analysis Bayesian Network Analysis Strategic Implications and Recommendations
Introduction Motor-scooter like device Powered by electric motors Movement by shifting weight, turning wrist Turning radius of zero Designed by inventor Dean Kamen (150 patents)
3 Product Models e series - Expeditor (cargo) i series - Industrial (business) p series - Personal (consumer) Commercial models faster, longer range, heavier Max speed 10.0 - 12.5 mph Maximum distance 14 - 17 miles (single charge) Device weighs 69 - 95 lbs.
Strategic Assessment: Crossing the Chasm Segway in infancy stage of TALC Discontinuous innovation Substitute for walking Value proposition (business and consumer) Technology enthusiasts Amazon.com auction - $100,000 bids Visionaries Amazon.com - first customer
Strategic Assessment: In the Bowling Alley Whole product solutions to niche segments Pick on someone your own size Enlist the support of the economic buyer Government services Post office, police departments Businesses with warehouses Amazon.com, Michelin, GE Plastics
Strategic Assessment: Inside the Tornado Hypergrowth stage years away Consumers are ultimate target market Production capacity 40,000 units/month Need to lower price point from $3,000/unit Media coverage is a double edged sword Builds awareness Overhype sets unrealistic expectations (e.g. artificial intelligence industry)
Stakeholders Consumers Businesses Government Services Regulatory Authorities Environmental Interests Electric Industry Petroleum Industry Manufacturing Partners
Stakeholders: Consumers & Businesses
Stakeholders: Government and Regulation
Stakeholders: Environmental and Electric Industries
Stakeholders: Petroleum and Manufacturing
Critical Issues Analysis Highlight key issue for each area Political - Regulatory approval Behavioral - Consumer utility Economic - Segmentation Social - Fad or revolution? Technological - Segway imitators
Bayesian Network
Bayesian Network Analysis Base scenario Tornado viability = 12.10% Reasons for low percentage Harder to enter Tornado than Bowling Alley Regulatory hurdles Consumer value key Ability to supply Competitive threats
Sensitivity Analysis: Primary Branch Nodes
Sensitivity Analysis: Regulatory Issues
Sensitivity Analysis: Customer Value
Sensitivity Analysis: Ability to Supply
Sensitivity Analysis: Competitive Threats
Market Valuation (all units in ‘000s)
Sensitivity Analysis - Expected Valuation Preliminary valuation = $2.98 billion
Strategic Implications and Recommendations Prioritize regulatory approval efforts Municipal approval is key Beta testing with government services Consider international consumer market first Less automobile oriented urban infrastructure, but less Segway friendly infrastructure More receptive to cheaper transportation technology (higher customer value)
Strategic Implications and Recommendations Continue expanding production capacity Hypergrowth demands rapid scalability Continue conservative patent protection policy Barrier to entry in a new market Alternative electric transportation threat
The Future?
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