Evolving Marine Services in the Great Lakes Mike Bardou Senior Forecaster - NWS Chicago Eric Lenning SOO - NWS Chicago

Many Challenges and Questions This takes a lot of time and energy…. ….and we have no idea how well we are doing. M AFORS US

Many Challenges and Questions Lots of effort to create/collaborate grids and edit text products.

Many Challenges and Questions What observations are representative?

Many Challenges and Questions What does our forecast represent? GLF/NSH (zones?) vs MAFOR vs Point-Click vs Graphics

Many Challenges and Questions How do customers interpret forecasts?

Many Challenges and Questions What do customers actually need? (Rags vs Tugs vs Freighters)

Many Challenges and Questions Waves! Significant vs Maximum vs Occasional

Many Challenges and Questions Winds: Surface vs 10m vs 30m Sustained vs Gusts Stability Issues

Where do we start? Success in the aviation program Success in the aviation program Where are we at now? Where are we at now? Communication is key! Communication is key! Start with the customer Start with the customer "Your most unhappy customers are your greatest source of learning." - Bill Gates

Communicate Investigate/Brainstorm/ Develop User/Forecaster Training Evaluate

Goals for Outreach Initiative Better understand needs of mariners Better understand needs of mariners Evaluate current services Evaluate current services Better understand the marine environment Better understand the marine environment Better leverage current technological capabilities Better leverage current technological capabilities Funnel insights into product and service evolution/improvement Funnel insights into product and service evolution/improvement

Valuable Decision Tool Properly Interpreted Representative Effectively Communicated

How do we do this? Communication! Communication! Enlist the resources of the 5 open lake offices (Chicago, Marquette, Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo) Enlist the resources of the 5 open lake offices (Chicago, Marquette, Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo) Identify common challenges/concerns, top priorities Identify common challenges/concerns, top priorities Develop a common approach to outreach Develop a common approach to outreach Conduct visits with vessels in nearby ports Conduct visits with vessels in nearby ports Identify improvements and work with regional/national HQ to implement Identify improvements and work with regional/national HQ to implement Feedback steers our course Feedback steers our course

Key Benefits of Visits Establish how current forecast services are interpreted and understood Establish how current forecast services are interpreted and understood Raise awareness of the marine environment Raise awareness of the marine environment Gain better understanding of how obs are taken Gain better understanding of how obs are taken A two-way training A two-way training opportunity opportunity Build relationships Build relationships

Results thus far… 8 Freighters and Tug/Barges 8 Freighters and Tug/Barges 1 USCG Icebreaker 1 USCG Icebreaker 3 Charter boats (who frequent the open waters) 3 Charter boats (who frequent the open waters)

Early Findings “Occasional” Waves: mixed reviews “Occasional” Waves: mixed reviews 10 and 30 m winds: mixed reviews 10 and 30 m winds: mixed reviews Forecast Discussions: not widely known about but very enthusiastic response Forecast Discussions: not widely known about but very enthusiastic response Surface weather maps are important Surface weather maps are important Desire for more ice forecast information Desire for more ice forecast information Desire for a more effective “one-stop” for all weather information Desire for a more effective “one-stop” for all weather information Provide periodic brief weather related training materials, service reminders, etc, via ?? Provide periodic brief weather related training materials, service reminders, etc, via ??

The Plan Identify exactly what we wish to include in our products, and how it will be communicated. Identify exactly what we wish to include in our products, and how it will be communicated. Make sure every forecaster in every marine office is creating the very same products. Make sure every forecaster in every marine office is creating the very same products. Agree on objective methods for tracking the accuracy of these forecast products. Agree on objective methods for tracking the accuracy of these forecast products.

The Plan Track effectiveness of these products, likely through outreach efforts. Track effectiveness of these products, likely through outreach efforts. Evaluate efficiency of the product creation process vs product accuracy/effectiveness. Evaluate efficiency of the product creation process vs product accuracy/effectiveness. Utilize verification statistics and user feedback to evolve these products and the process through which they are created. Utilize verification statistics and user feedback to evolve these products and the process through which they are created.

Thank You! Questions/Comments?