1 Measuring forced displacement in Industrialized Countries: Data sources, methods and challenges in estimating refugee and asylum-seeker numbers Khassoum Diallo Senior Statistician FICSS/DOS UNHCR New York, December 4-7, 2006

2 Outline FContext and Scope FData sources FIndicators FEstimation methods FKey challenges FSpecial issues

3 CONTEXT: The migration-asylum nexus Forced and economic migration difficult to separate – Closely related causes – Similar strategies applied by forced and economic migrants Common responses in receiving countries: –Lack of differentiation between asylum seekers and irregular migrants –Principle of non-refoulement not always applied UNHCR Strategy: a 10-point plan.

4 Scope of forced displacement - Key measurement issues Involuntary/Unplanned: inherent data collection problems Movements: none (stateless), internal or international Cause: conflict or persecution (not natural disasters ) Size: mass flows or individual movements Phases: displacement, return (post-conflict) Focus: countries of origin, transit and destination Duration: long-term and short-term  UNHCR’S CONCEPT OF “POPULATION OF CONCERN” includes refugees, asylum-seekers, IDPs, returned refugees, returned IDPs, Stateless persons and others of concern.

5 Scope of forced displacement - facts and figures (end-2005) Estimated 38 million persons displaced globally –8.7 million refugees (UNHCR) –4.2 million Palestinian refugees in Middle East (UNRWA) –≈ 24 million internally displaced (IDMC) 21 millions persons of concern to UNHCR, end-2005

6 UNHCR data sources Main data sources –Government statistics –More than 140 UNHCR country operations –NGOs/Implementing partners Basis of data –Registration/census –Surveys –Estimates UNHCR Sources Monthly asylum application data (36 industrialized countries) Quarterly Statistical Report (QSR, mainly developing countries with UNHCR operations 120) Annual Statistical Report (ASR, over 150 countries) Annual Standard and Indicator Report (SIR, Global coverage, National, camps, urban, returnees 2005)

7 Refugee statistics – Stocks and flows Refugee stock, begin and end-period (year) Increases –Population dynamic (births, prima facie refugee arrivals, resettlement arrivals) –Legal increases (grants of refugee status to asylum- seekers, spouses, etc.) Decreases –Population dynamic (deaths, refugee departures (voluntary repatriation, resettlement)) –Legal decreases (cessation of refugee status, naturalization, etc.)

8 Measuring refugee stocks and flows: schematic overview REFUGEE POPULATION Positive decisions (individual) Births Resettlement arrivals Prima facie (group recognition) Naturalization Deaths Cessation Other increases/ decreases Resettlement departures Voluntary repatriation

9 Estimating refugee population: If no refugee data / register available With: –PD: Positive decisions on individual applications during a specific year y –PF: Prima Facie arrivals during the year –RA: Resettlement arrivals during the year –OI: Other increases during the year –NR: Number of naturalized refugees during the year –VR: Number of voluntarily repatriated refugees during the year –RD: Resettlement departures during the year –OD: Other decreases during the year –X Reference year y=years c=Countries of origin k=Estimate duration before naturalization (5 or 10 years in industrialized countries n= Number of countries of origin, including stateless persons

10 Estimating refugee population in 36 industrialized countries With: –PD: Positive decisions on individual applications during a specific year y –RA: Resettlement arrivals during the year –NR: Number of naturalized refugees during the year –X: Reference year –y=years –c=Countries of origin –k=Estimate duration before naturalization (5 or 10 years in industrialized countries –n= Number of countries of origin, including stateless persons. Assumptions: Naturalization of refugees after 5 years of residence in Canada, USA, Australia, New Zealand and after 10 years elsewhere. The 10 year duration will be applied for the USA next year.

11 Asylum statistics: Estimation of recognition rates Based on decisions –RRR: Refugee recognition rate –TRR Total recognition rate CR: Number of refugees recognized under 1951 convention HR: Number of asylum seekers grated refugee status on temporary/humanitarian basis RJ Number of rejected cases during the year c: Countries of origin y: Reference Year Other indicators: Pending cases Percentage of otherwise closed cases

12 Asylum statistics: indicators for selected industrialized countries

13 Scope and Definitions –Asylum migration nexus –Terminology: Who is a refugee? (1951Conv./ humanitarian; long-term resident; rejected asylum-seekers, …) Data sources and triangulation –Coverage: Key information are missing –Register updating –Sources for triangulation Data quality –Timeliness in rapidly changing situations –Comparability –Compliance with recommendations (UN, UNECE, UNHCR) –Trends: Real or not (impact of regulations, definition and scope, data coverage) Human resources and data protection –Skills and training –Uses of data for informed decision making –Data Protection and confidentiality Key challenges

14 Good practices - Zambia Purpose of immigration in 2000 population and housing census (UNHCR funded) –If foreigner, why come to this country? WorkWork StudyStudy AsylumAsylum Family reunificationFamily reunification –Work –Study –Asylum

15 Recommendations on international migration statistics The 1998 revision of UN recommendations Purpose of migration (work, family reunification, asylum, study, …) Use of existing national data sources UNECE Recommendations UNHCR recommendation on Registration (EXecutive COMmittee Conclusion No. 91) –Individual basis –Confidentiality –Identity (photograph) –Data elements: name, sex, DOB, relation to HoH, origin, current location, special needs, etc.

16 Expectations Refugee and asylum-seekers, key category of international migration Breakdown (age, sex, location) wherever possible Stateless persons as a specific category Terminology: Many states are very sensitive on forced displacement issues Data sharing