Federal Crop Insurance and Disaster Programs Paul D. Mitchell AAE 320: Farming Systems Management

Goal Overview current crop insurance programs for major crops How they work, choices farmer must make Disaster Programs were part of the Farm Bill, but crop insurance has become the emphasis

$15 B Farm Safety Net Average Annual Outlays Under 2008 Farm Bill Direct Payments (DP) $4.9 billion Crop Insurance $8.3 billion Counter-Cyclical Payments (CCP) $0.559 billion Risk Management (field & specialty crops) $8.4 billion Commodity Programs (field crops) $5.9 billion OR Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) $0.311 B Non-insured Disaster Assistance (NAP) $0.1 billion Farm Safety Net $15 B Marketing Assistance Loans $0.225 billion Loan Deficiency Payments (LDP) $0.225 billion Supplemental Revenue Assistance Payments Program (SURE) Livestock Indemnity Program Ad hoc disaster payments Disaster Assistance (crops & livestock) $0.8 billion Livestock Forage Disaster Program Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honey Bees, and Farm-Raised Fish Program Tree Assistance Program Emergency Disaster Loans Source: http://ncseonline.org/NLE/CRSreports/10Oct/R41317.pdf

$15 Farm Safety Net Average Annual Outlays Under 2008 Farm Bill 2014 Direct Payments (DP) $4.9 bil Crop Insurance $8.3 bil 2014 Counter-Cyclical Payments (CCP) $0.559 bil Risk Management (field & specialty crops) $8.4 bil Commodity Programs (field crops) $5.9 bil OR $9.0B (+ 6%) $4.4B (-25%) Average Crop Revenue Election (ACRE) $0.311 bil Non-insured Disaster Assistance (NAP) $0.1 bil Farm Safety Net $15 Marketing Assistance Loans $0.225 bil No Change Loan Deficiency Payments (LDP) $0.225 bil Supplemental Revenue Assistance Payments Program (SURE) 13.4 B (- 10%) Livestock Indemnity Program Ad hoc disaster payments Livestock Forage Disaster Program No Change Disaster Assistance (crops & livestock) $0.75 bil No Change Emergency Assistance for Livestock, Honey Bees, and Farm-Raised Fish Program Tree Assistance Program Emergency Disaster Loans Source: http://ncseonline.org/NLE/CRSreports/10Oct/R41317.pdf

Trends in WI Crop Insurance Participation Drought of 2012 added 8 percentage points to WI crop insurance participation in 2013 82% 78%

WI vs. neighboring states % planted acres insured in 2013 Corn Soybeans Wheat IA 97% 94% 27% IL 87% 83% 69% MN 98% 95% MI 74% 75% 65% WI 78% 82% 60% Historically WI was a low participation state, until recently

2009 Insured Acres as Share of Cropland Acres

Crop Insurance Suppose I’m interested: Where do I start? Contact a crop insurance agent! They all sell exactly the same polices for exactly the same prices, you are buying service – Find someone you like to work with For corn and soybeans: Choices you make What policy to buy? What coverage level to chose? What unit structure to use?

Types of Crop Insurance Policies Farmers have four choices for most crops Are exceptions for regionally minor crops Yield Insurance vs Revenue Insurance What triggers a payment? Yield or Revenue below the guarantee? Individual vs. Area-Wide Coverage Whose yield/revenue triggers payment? Your own or your county’s?

WI Crop Insurance Policies: Corn & Soybeans Individual (Farm) Area-Wide (County) Yield YP Yield Protection AYP Area Yield Protection Revenue RP Revenue Protection RP-HPE: Harvest Price Exclusion ARP Area Revenue Protection ARP-HPE w/ Harvest Price Exclusion So Many Options!! Catastrophic coverage (CAT): For YP, AYP AGR-Lite: Insure Schedule F income

WI Crop Insurance Policies: Corn & Soybeans Individual (Farm) Area-Wide (County) Yield YP Yield Protection AYP Area Yield Protection Revenue RP Revenue Protection RP-HPE: Harvest Price Exclusion ARP Area Revenue Protection ARP-HPE w/ Harvest Price Exclusion So Many Options!! Catastrophic coverage (CAT): For YP, AYP AGR-Lite: Insure Schedule F income

Types of Policies Yield Protection (YP) Individual Yield Insurance Revenue Protection (RP) and RP-HPE (harvest price exclusion) Individual Revenue Insurance Area Yield Protection (AYP) Area-wide (County) Yield Insurance Area Revenue Protection (ARP) and ARP-HPE (harvest price exclusion) Area-wide (County) Revenue Insurance

Farmer Choices After choose a policy (YP, RP, AYP, ARP), then have three choices to make Coverage Level (like the deductible) Price Election (payment rate for losses) Unit Structure (some policies have no options) I will explain Yield Protection details to understand the other policies

YP: Yield Protection If actual harvested yield is less than your Yield Guarantee, receive an indemnity Actual Production History (APH): Average harvested yields over last 4-10 years Yield Guarantee: chose Coverage Level as % of your APH (Actual Production History) Coverage Level: % average yield (APH) chosen as guarantee, from 50% to 85% by 5% intervals Price Election: Choose price paid for each bushel below your yield guarantee, from 100% to 55% of established Base Price

Coverage Level sets Yield Guarantee: Example to Illustrate Year Yield 2009 165 2010 175 2001 150 2012 110 2013 185 2014 145 AVG 155 APH = 155 Coverage Level Yield Guarantee 50% x 155 = 78 bu/ac 55% x 155 = 85 bu/ac 60% x 155 = 93 bu/ac 65% x 155 = 101 bu/ac 70% x 155 = 109 bu/ac 75% x 155 = 116 bu/ac 80% x 155 = 124 bu/ac 85% x 155 = 132 bu/ac

Price Election How much you are paid for each bushel that actual harvest is below yield guarantee Base Price set by USDA-RMA: Average of Dec. corn (Nov. soybean) futures contracts on Chicago Board of Trade during February Choose 100% to 60% of this price in 1% intervals, appears as $/bu options Most farmers choose 100% Price set for large regions 2011: Corn $6.01, Soybeans $13.49, Wheat $9.89 2012: Corn $5.68, Soybeans $12.55, Wheat $8.20 2013: Corn $5.65, Soybeans $12.87, Wheat $8.57 2014: Corn $4.62, Soybeans $11.36, Wheat $6.51

YP Indemnity If Actual Harvested Yield < Yield Guarantee Indemnity = Price x (Yguarantee – Yharvested) Price: Chosen Price Election Most farmers choose 100% Coverage Level determines your trigger, pay more for higher coverage levels Price Election determines how much paid when have a loss, pay more for higher price election

Unit Structure Legally define the area (fields) insured Planted to same crop during insurance period Cannot cut across a county line Separate production records for each unit Three unit types (smallest to largest) Optional Unit, Basic Unit, Enterprise Unit Previously: Get as many Optional Units as could Now: Premium discounts have made Enterprise Units often the best deal Lots of rules: Crop insurance agent can help you figure out rules

Unit Structure Choices All guarantees at the unit level, not on a per acre basis 100 acre unit, average yield 160 bu/ac, 75% coverage level = 100 x 160 x 0.75 = 12,000 bushels Guaranteed 12,000 bu from those 100 acres Have to choose how to combine fields together into units Can’t just combine fields any way you want: Rules to follow Unit Sizes (smallest to largest): Optional < Basic < Enterprise Smaller units means more indemnities (averaging over smaller area) and so larger premiums Government encourages larger units by giving larger premium subsidies for larger units (enterprise unit discount)

Farms A-G: Same operator planting the same crop Farm D cash rent from Jones Farm A Owned Farm E 50-50 crop share lease from Smith Township Section 2 Basic Units (1) A, C, D, and F (2) B and E (3) G Optional Units (1) A and C (2) B (3) D (4) E (5) F (6) G Enterprise Unit (1) A thru G Farm B 50-50 crop share lease from Smith Township Section 1 Farm D cash rent from Smith Farm G 60-40 crop share lease from Black Farm F Owned Township Section 12 Township Section 11

Simple YP Example for a Unit Suppose have one unit, 100 acres of corn APH (average yield) is 160 bu/ac Choose 70% coverage level, and 100% price election $5.65/bu Yield guarantee = 70% x 160 bu/ac = 112 bu/ac Unit Guarantee = 112 x 100 ac = 11,200 bushels Actual harvest from Unit is 10,500 bu (or 105 bu/ac) Indemnity: $5.65 x (11,200 – 10,500) = $3,955 (or $39.55/ac) Notice how guarantee and indemnity work at the unit level, but often talk about it at the per acre level

Revenue Protection Combines Yield Protection with price protection based on CBOT futures prices Your yield history and CBOT prices set your preliminary Revenue Guarantee Same coverage levels, same unit structures Your revenue at harvest is your yield x CBOT prices (e.g., Oct average of Dec corn) If your harvest revenue is below your guarantee, triggers an indemnity payment

Initial and Final Revenue Guarantee RP vs. RP-HPE Base Price: Feb avg of Dec corn futures Harvest Price: Oct avg of Dec corn futures Initial Revenue Guarantee calculated using the Base Price Final Revenue Guarantee calculated using the maximum of Base Price and Harvest Price Main Point: With RP, if price increases over season, your revenue guarantee increases RP-Harvest Price Exclusion: revenue guarantee is not updated with max(Base, Harvest) price Lower indemnities with RP-HPE if price increases and have low yield, so Lower Premiums Very few farmers buy RP-HPE

RP Protects Against Both Price Increases and Decreases If price falls or have low yield, you know you will have the grain, or the money to buy grain at existing prices, to fulfill contracts/feed livestock If price increases, revenue guarantee increases too, so again you know you will have the grain, or the money to buy the grain at existing prices, to fulfill contracts/feed livestock Still have to market your grain Can now market more aggressively since you will have grain or indemnities to buy grain at existing market prices if you have a yield loss

Simple Example Comparing the three Assume 150 bu/ac APH and 70% coverage level, so YP: per acre guarantee is 105 bu/ac Base price at plant $5.00, so RP and RP-HPE Initial Guarantee $5.00 x 105 = $525/ac Actual yield is 75 bu/ac, so loss is 105 – 75 = 30 bu/ac YP pays $5.00 x 30 bu/ac = $150/ac What happens if harvest price increases to $6.00? RP Guarantee $6.00 x 105 bu/ac = $630/ac RP pays: $630 – ($6.00 x 75) = $630 – $450 = $180/ac RP-HRE: Guarantee not change: $525 – $450 = $75/ac What happens if harvest price decreases to $4.00? RP and RP-HRE Guarantees do not change Both pay $525 – ($4.00 x 75) = $525 – $300 = $225/ac Note: all of these would be at unit level, not per acre

RP vs. RP-HPE vs. YP (150 bu/ac APH and 70% coverage level) Policy Base Price $/bu Gtee $/ac bu/ac Harvest Price $/ac bu/ac Actual Yield Actual Rev $/ac Indemnity RP $5.00 $525 $6.00 $630 75 $450 630 – 450 = $180 RP-HPE 525 – 450 = $75 YP 105 bu/ac $5x(105 - 75) = $150 $4.00 $300 525 – 300 = $225

RP vs. RP-HPE vs. YP If harvest price > base price and low yield, larger indemnity for RP than for RP-HPE If harvest price < base price, no difference for RP vs RP-HPE Notice: RP-HPE: can do worse than YP if high prices and low yields RP-HPE uses actual higher harvest price to calculate actual revenue, while YP uses actual yield loss at lower base price RP-HPE: worst if low yields and high prices, best if low yields and low prices

AYP Area Yield Protection ARP Area Revenue Protection AYP = YP, except uses USDA-NASS county average yield (not your yield) ARP = RP except uses USDA-NASS county average yield ARP-HPE = RP-HPE except uses USDA-NASS county average yield Payments not made until Mar/Apr when USDA-NASS yields come out: cash flow issues?

WI Crop Insurance Policies: Corn & Soybeans Individual (Farm) Area-Wide (County) Yield YP Yield Protection AYP Area Yield Protection Revenue RP Revenue Protection RP-HPE: Harvest Price Exclusion ARP Area Revenue Protection ARP-HPE w/ Harvest Price Exclusion So Many Options!! Catastrophic coverage (CAT): For YP, AYP AGR-Lite: Insure Schedule F income

Lots of Crop Insurance Rules Lots rules: Planting dates, Late and prevented planting, Double cropping, Alternative crop uses, Corn maturity, Yield guarantees, Unit structures, Breaking new ground (CRP vs pasture) Can forfeit your coverage if break a rule Are ways to get the most out of your policy (use the rules to your advantage) Insurance agents don’t always know all the rules, good agents do

Subsidies and Crop Insurance USDA-RMA runs crop insurance program, sets policy rules, sets premiums Premiums subsidized so farmers pay less than the “actuarially fair” premium If on average, $100 indemnity paid once every 4 years, then “actuarially fair” premium is $25 Private companies sell insurance policies, but government subsidizes their administrative costs No premium load to cover costs All companies sell exactly same policy at same price Means that on average, farmers should make money from crop insurance

Premiums Subsidized: For RP and YP, % of the Fair Premium Farmers Pay Coverage Level Optional Units Basic Units Enterprise Units 50% 33% 20% 55% 36% 60% 65% 41% 70% 75% 45% 23% 80% 52% 32% 85% 62% 47%

Premiums Subsidized: For AYP and ARP, % of Fair Premium Farmers Pay Coverage Level AYP ARP 70% 41% 75% 80% 45% 85% 51% 90% 49% 56% Main point: Government and farmers share the premium cost Higher coverage, farmer pays greater share CAT: 100% subsidized, just pay $300 admin fee

Premiums ($/A): Dane County WI, 2013 (167 Trend Adjusted APH) Yield Protection Coverage Optional Basic Enterprise Guarantee 50% 3.52 2.44 1.28 84 bu 55% 4.95 3.59 1.65 92 bu 60% 6.56 5.01 2.23 100 bu 65% 9.70 7.75 2.98 109 bu 70% 12.67 10.55 3.99 117 bu 75% 18.55 16.20 6.32 125 bu 80% 26.78 24.28 11.24 134 bu 85% 38.28 36.21 20.85 142 bu

Premiums ($/A): Dane County WI, 2013 (167 Trend Adjusted APH) Revenue Protection Coverage Optional Basic Enterprise Initial Guarantee 50% 4.67 3.29 1.42 $472 55% 6.85 5.14 1.94 $519 60% 9.52 7.56 2.76 $566 65% 14.38 12.03 3.95 $613 70% 18.96 16.46 5.42 $660 75% 27.96 25.28 8.92 $708 80% 40.67 37.93 16.30 $755 85% 59.83 57.76 31.94 $802

Premiums ($/A): Dane County WI, 2013 (160 Trend Adjusted APH) Revenue Protection-HPE Coverage Optional Basic Enterprise Guarantee 50% 3.46 2.41 1.00 $472 55% 5.00 3.69 1.30 $519 60% 7.02 5.37 1.73 $566 65% 10.78 8.80 2.52 $613 70% 14.37 12.32 3.57 $660 75% 21.15 19.09 5.99 $708 80% 30.82 28.72 10.96 $755 85% 45.16 43.68 21.64 $802

Compare Policy Prices (Optional Units)

WI Farmers Practices and Experiences with Crop Insurance Quick overview of WI farmer practices Which policies popular Which coverage levels Quick overview of WI farmer experiences What are loss ratios Farmer Loss Ratios for corn and soybeans

What policies do WI farmers buy? CORN: % insured acres under each policy Year RP YP Other 2009 69% 22% 9% 2010 71% 21% 8% 2011 76% 16% 7% 2012 81% 14% 4% 2013 84% 11% 6% SOYBEAN: % insured acres under each policy Year RP YP Other 2009 77% 16% 8% 2010 82% 13% 5% 2011 84% 11% 4% 2012 88% 10% 1% 2013 91%

Coverage Levels used by WI farmers for RP and YP in 2012 for Corn and Soybeans Corn RP Soy RP Corn YP Soy YP CAT --- 43% 40% 50% 1% 7% 55% 0% 2% 60% 3% 6% 65% 5% 15% 70% 28% 24% 22% 21% 75% 38% 8% 80% 20% 85% 4%

Coverage Levels used by WI farmers for RP and YP in 2012 for Corn and Soybeans Corn RP Soy RP Corn YP Soy YP CAT --- 43% 40% 50% 1% 7% 55% 0% 2% 60% 3% 6% 65% 5% 15% 70% 28% 24% 22% 21% 75% 38% 8% 80% 20% 85% 4% 60%-65% of all WI corn and soybean acres have RP with a 70% to 80% coverage level 86% 88%

Average Number of Units per Policy in WI Year CORN RP CORN YP SOY RP SOY YP 2009 2.32 2.11 2.04 1.84 2010 2.13 2.08 1.89 1.71 2011 3.51 2.14 2.80 1.77 2012 3.52 2.22 2.81 1.86 2013 3.31 2.23 1.90 WI farmers using RP are using more Optional Units Big jump in 2011 for corn and soybeans Dropped in 2013: Moving to Enterprise Units??? WI farmers using YP: no unit changes, using Basic Units

WI Farmers and Crop Insurance About 80% of WI corn and soybean acres are insured 60% to 65% of WI corn and soybean acres use Revenue Protection (RP) 70%-80% Coverage Level Optional Units Smaller group of insured corn and soybean farmers use Yield Protection (YP) Catastrophic policy (CAT) Basic Units

Crop Insurance Subsidies Administered by USDA-Risk Management Agency (RMA) and Federal Crop Insurance Corporation (FCIC) USDA develops policies, rules, and premium rates Development & administration costs paid by the public USDA subsidizes the premiums Farmers pay about ⅓ of fair premiums on average USDA pays subsidy to companies for Administration and Operating (A&O) ~20% of total premiums FCIC reinsures the insurance companies, plus retains some of the policies Means FCIC pays some of the indemnities

Crop Insurance Data for 2012 (all units in Millions) Region Acres Liability Farmer Premiums Premium Subsidies Indemnities* Corn WI 3.04 1,894 63.5 121 312 USA 81.1 53,421 1,632 2,674 9,270 Soy 1.27 499 18.9 36 33 65.0 25,569 874 1,467 1,853 Other 0.88 439 10.8 17.9 11 135.7 37,606 1,607 2,796 3,106 Total 5.19 2,833 93.2 175 356 282 116,596 4,113 6,937 14,229 *As of 2/11/2013

Crop Insurance Data for 2012 Corn and Soybeans dominate crop insurance 50% of the acres, 60% of the subsidies, almost 70% of the liability and almost 80% of the indemnities (so far) Region Acres Liability Farmer Premiums Premium Subsidies Indemnities* WI 5.2 2,832 93 175 356 USA 282 116,596 4,113 6,937 14,229 Percentage of Total in Corn and Soybeans 83% 84% 88% 90% 97% 52% 68% 61% 60% 78% *As of 2/11/2013

Experience with Crop Insurance Loss Ratio measures insurance performance Loss Ratio = Indemnities/Premiums Loss Ratio of 1.5 means, on average, $1.50 in indemnities paid for every $1.00 of premiums Crop insurance: Subsidized premiums, farmers and government each pay part Program loss ratio = Indemnity/(Total Premium) = Indemnity/(Govt. + Farmer Premium) Farmer loss ratio = Indemnity/Farmer Premium 2008 Farm Bill Mandates a Program Loss Ratio of 1.0 Farmers pay about 35%-45% of premiums on average

WI Crop Insurance for Corn in 2007 total prem./A farmer prem./A indem./A program loss ratio farmer loss ratio APH CAT 7.48 -- 1.97 0.26 APH BuyUp 28.30 11.48 29.64 1.05 2.58 CRC BuyUp 53.03 23.16 42.75 0.81 1.85 GRIP BuyUp 65.90 29.52 1.60* 0.04* 0.09* GRP CAT 2.20 0.00* 0* GRP BuyUp 11.20 4.84 2.09* 0.27* 0.63* All Total 45.48 19.50 30.97 0.68 1.59 -- Farmers pay no per acre premiums, so no loss ratio. * Policy does not pay indemnities until March/April 2008, these for 2006.

2012 Loss Ratios = Indemnities/Premiums (as of 2/11/2013) Crop Region Program Loss Ratio Farmer Loss Ratio Corn WI 1.68 4.90 USA 2.15 5.67 Soy 0.53 1.76 0.79 2.12 Total 1.21 3.82 1.29 3.45 Program loss ratio not high for drought year, but not done Farmer loss ratio much larger than program loss ratio

Yield and Revenue Policies Average County Program Loss Ratios for Corn 1995-2007

Yield and Revenue Policies Average County Program Loss Ratios for Soybeans 1995-2007

Summary of WI Farmer Experiences with Crop Insurance Farmers, on average over the whole state, generally win on crop insurance policies Especially in the north Especially for soybeans Crop insurance is (partially) a subsidy program to help farmers when they need it most, when they have low yields and/or revenues

Average Indemnities Net of Farmer Premiums ($/acre) 2000-2009

Loss Ratios and Reform Corn and soybeans “carry” the crop insurance program Program loss ratios too low for corn and soybeans Crop insurance a “tax” on Midwestern corn & soybean acres that transferred to “marginal” production areas Recent premium rate adjustments to remedy the problem Trend Adjusted APH (new in 2012) New premium rates phased in 2012 and 2013 so that about 6% lower for Midwest corn and soybeans

2009 Total Payments (DCP, ACRE, LDP, SURE, MILC, CRP, Premium Subsidies)

Share of 2009 Total Payments from Crop Insurance Premium Subsidies

Main Point Crop insurance has become the core of commodity support from the federal government Most acres insured and most subsidies from crop insurance New Farm Bill put even more emphasis on crop insurance and decreased traditional commodity support Why crop insurance popular in Congress Market-based, not government run program Farmers share in cost of program Farmers receive payments only when have demonstrated losses Public-private partnership btwn government & insurance companies, who both bear some of the risk & costs Historically, program has been financially solid

Crop Insurance for Other Crops Almost all major WI crops have a standard crop insurance policy for them, usually YP Forage production and seeding Small Grains: oats, rye, barley Processing Vegetables: Potatoes, sweet corn, snap beans, green peas Miscellaneous crops: Cranberries, hybrid seed corn, mint, apples

Crop Insurance Alternatives AGR-Lite: Insure farm’s Schedule F income Multiple crops & livestock, allows insuring whole farm revenue Alternatives if no policy exists FSA non-insured crop assistance program (NAP policy): FSA sells CAT policy if none available Written Agreement: apply RMA policy from a similar area to your crop (e.g., grapes in MI for WI) Organic prices now available for many crops Corn, soybeans, wheat, etc. Livestock price (not production) policies LGM Dairy has become soemwhat popular Pasture Rangeland Forage: weather station rainfall & temps

Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) SCO: allows you to insure part of your RP/YP deductible with a county policy (ARP/AYP) Layer individual & county coverage Can’t exceed 86% total coverage Add SCO to an RP policy to increase coverage up to the 86% maximum SCO will not pay until county loss exceeds 14% 65% SCO premium subsidy (farmer pays 35%) SCO available in 2015, only if choose PLC If choose ARC, cannot buy SCO

Possible outcomes with RP plus SCO 1. SCO pays, but not RP 2. RP pays, but not SCO 3. Both SCO and RP pay 4. Neither SCO nor RP pays

Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) Suppose have 75% RP on corn (25% deductible) Suppose added 86% SCO (max) Outcome 3: both RP and SCO pay Suppose county revenue is 80% of average Suppose your revenue is 65% of guarantee Receive SCO indemnity for a 6% loss Receive RP indemnity for a 10% loss Will buy SCO from crop insurance agent for 2015

SCO sold for winter wheat earlier this fall Could sign up for wheat SCO this fall Problem: Can’t sign up for PLC to be eligible for SCO Have until Dec 15th to make final decision, which is still before PLC deadline Corn and soybeans next spring: can signup for SCO by March 15, then decide on PLC/ARC signup deadline of March 31 Counties with SCO available for winter wheat

Summary Overviewed 4 main types of crop insurance YP, RP, AYP, ARP, plus new SCO Individual vs. Area-wide, Yield vs. Revenue Lots of issues not covered, lots of other crops can be insured