Analysis of Annual Inventory Data in Maine Kenneth M. Laustsen, Biometrician Maine Forest Service (MFS) NE FIA Users’ Meeting - Sturbridge, MA April 13, 2004

3 Analysis Categories Pass-Through to Northeastern Research Station (NERS) usually a spatial estimate of a specific polygonal area or a owner’s landbase In-house (requests by the Maine Forest Service, Department of Conservation, Governor’s Office, or Maine Users) Enhanced Collaboration (combinations of P2, P3, auxiliary MFS data, and models)

Pass-Through I serve as the facilitator and a conduit to help users frame their request to NERS in regard to: Area of interest Species Products Table outputs 5 –6 requests per year Examples include: Due diligence for a prospective timberland acquisition A large NIPF (1 Million acres) comparing their in-house inventory to exact FIA data Shrub/Seedling/Sapling composition in IF&W Habitat Management Zones Descriptive analysis of a watershed (Salmon Habitat)

Pass-Through cont. For this category, I do not see the analysis results!

In-House This is the most frequent category for analysis requests (Average of 1 per month) As a full-fledged cooperator, I have to be sensitive, respectful, and law-abiding in regards to the confidentiality issues surrounding some of the data These analysis requests are more broad scale, I.e. simple working circles, entire counties, or statewide estimates

In-House, examples Northern White Cedar Inventory for Aroostook County (Sawmill) Merchantable inventory within a 100 mile radius of Fort Kent, ME (E D Director) White Birch inventory and quality in the Western Maine FIA unit (E D Director) Available Spruce-Fir inventory that is 5.0” to 8.9” DBH, log quality, and within 100 miles of Greenville, ME (sawmill expansion) Available Spruce-Fir inventory within 50 miles of Dover-Foxcroft, ME (sawmill expansion)

In-House, examples cont. 100 mile wood basket of White Pine pulpwood (pulp mill looking for a cheaper fiber source) of hemlock pulp (pulp mill looking for a cheaper fiber source) of white pine (potential new supply source for OSB plant) Bio-diversity indices – distance of P2 plot to nearest road, 15”+ dbh TPA live, dead, snag Volume distribution between sawlog and topwood Projected annual Spruce-Fir ingrowth over next 10 years

Enhanced Collaboration This category uses the synergy from combining multiple data sources and predictive models to produce estimates and analysis that are either uncommon or unique, but always interesting Infrequent (3 – 4 per year), but much more time-consuming

White Pine Management in the Core Area (1959 – 2001) Focused analysis on inventory, trends, and change in the southern 1/3 of Maine that contains 2/3’s of the White Pine Inventory (FIA data and MFS Data) Land Use Changes Forestland Conversion (P2 vs. MFS Reports) Trends in Forest types and stand size Product volume and log grades Growth vs. Removals (P2 vs. MFS Processor Reports)

Soil Erosion Prediction Combining data from P2 and P3 plots for input into the the Disturbed WEPP model, resulting in a probability prediction of an annual runoff, erosion, and sediment estimate for three types of plot areas: Undisturbed Harvested 1998 Ice Storm

Ice Storm Damage vs. Tree Condition Current poster session presents an analysis of the correlation between changes in Tree Condition between 1995 and a subsequent annual P2 remeasurement (2001 – 2003) to 4 preliminary damage assessment groups aerially conducted by the MFS immediately following the 1998 Ice Storm.

White Birch Availability - Regional Pride Manufacturing, located in Maine and Wisconsin, is the world’s largest producer of golf tees (standard, oversized, and customized). The wood drain area for the Burnham, ME mill encompasses over 200 air miles. With NERS help, an analysis of the availability of suitable White Birch Inventory within a 4-state region (MA, ME, NH, VT) was provided.

Trees to Oil – Pyrolysis Received a request in January 2003, for an estimate of available fiber sources (residue or biomass) that were not committed to existing processing and deliverable to an existing pulp/paper mill complex. Utilized P2 estimates of separate biomass components (bolewood, limbs and tops, foliage, stumps and roots, cull trees, salvable dead trees, saplings, and shrubs for selected 60 mile drain areas around 3 multiple mill groups.

Pyrolysis, cont. Utilized MFS annual county-level harvest estimates of various products (sawlogs, sawmill residue, pulpwood, biomass chips, and hog fuel) for determination of an existing annual removal volume (dry tons) as a percentage of standing inventory, ~ 2%. Assumed that the same 2% volume basis of other un- utilized biomass components (branches, cull trees, salvable dead trees, and saplings) were available, removable, and deliverable with existing infrastructure.

-5 mills in the Southwest (blue polygon) have access to 7,000 dry tons per day - 5 mills in the Downeast Region (red polygon) have access to 8,500 dry tons per day -1 mill in the North has access to 2,500 dry tons per day

Trends in Hardwood Sawtimber In October 2001, based on the completion of 2 annual panels, I analyzed hardwood sawtimber trends from 1959 – 2000 focusing on 5 species (Red Maple, Sugar Maple, Yellow Birch, White Birch, and Red Oak) and their : Average sawtimber tree size (QMD) Volume per acre of sawtimber Proportion of sawtimber by various grades

Trends, cont. On Thursday, I will revisit the exact same topic with the exact same association, refreshing the analysis to represent the current 4 annual panels. Has the forecast changed? NO Is the forecast more accurate? YES

Greenhouse Gas & Carbon Credits Maine has a legislative mandate to reverse its level of greenhouse gas emissions by Achieving this goal requires understanding trends and current estimates of the various contributors to Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. As the following graph shows, these early estimates placed the LUCF (Land Use Change and Forestry) category as being the #2 problem area, and responsible for emitting 19% of the 2000 GHG mix.

GHG, cont. MFS with the help of the NERS, an Ag-Forestry Working Group, and other consultants has been actively rebutting those estimates and trends, while offering better data and methods for accounting for Carbon within Maine’s forest resources. GHG is not just a Maine problem, but has far-reaching implications throughout the NE and Canada. How much cash are you willing to accept today, to store carbon on the stump for the next 25 years, in lieu of a future harvest?

Questions