Estimation of unrecorded employment using administrative data Ágota Scharle Bálint Szabó Ministry of Finance Budapest

2 Outline Aim and estimation strategy Data sources Main results Unresolved issues and further work

Aim and estimation strategy  estimate unrecorded employment  assume that LFS data captures {all employment}  compare to Pension insurance captures {recorded employment}  extension to Augusztinovics-Köllő 2007

4 Data sources LFS  Quarterly survey of Hungarians aged  About 60 thousand observations  ILO definition of employment  Age, sex, occupation, region, etc Pension records [ONYF]  Sample of administrative records on total population  about 140 thousand observations of adults aged  pension contribution as employee or self-employed  Age, sex, occupation (employees only), region Both: for the years and panel

5 Data sources 2 LFS Annual average of quarterly data 6 main categories of type of employment: employee (2) or self-employed (4) average of those working on reference week in 4 quarters Pension records [ONYF] 28 categories by type of employment contract length of contract (days) average employed population: total days/366

Main results: employment rate

men all ages rate higher for over 50

women on maternity or over 60

aged over 50

in agriculture or urbanised areas

11 in services to households (employees)

Benedek Dóra - Újraelosztás és mikroszimuláció 12 Unresolved issues … Robustness checks:  Definition of employment (OEP data?)  Weights  Grouping of occupations Cleaning admin data

…and further work  time series for  decomposing changes from 2001 to 2004  multivariate analysis for sub-regions?  use wage data in admin records  use panel nature of admin records (flows into pension by occupation, flows into/from AMK)  ?

Thank you for your attention.

Age distribution in samples