Comprehensive Capital Market Solutions For Commercial Real Estate NC CCIM – 2013 Commercial Real Estate Forecast
Loans are subject to credit approval. Source: Commercial Quarterly Data Book – 3rd Q 2011 Mortgage Bankers Association Commercial Banking 34% CMBS, CDO, and other ABS Issues 24% Agency and GSEs 16% Life Insurance Cos 14% State & Local Gov 2% Others 10% $2.38 Trillion, Q Commercial / Multifamily Debt Outstanding Comparison By Investor Group Commercial Banking 33% CMBS, CDO, and other ABS Issues 26% Agency and GSEs 14% Life Insurance Cos 13% State & Local Gov 7% Finance Companies 2% Others 5% $2.37 Trillion, Q3 2011
Loans are subject to credit approval. Source: Commercial Quarterly Data Book – 3rd Q 2011 Mortgage Bankers Association Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Flows Net Change in Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding, by Sector (in Millions)
Loans are subject to credit approval. Compared to Q3 2011…… Q origination volumes 7% lower. Borrowing slowed in Q3 despite low interest rates due to moderate pace of commercial transactions (retail and office) and a continued drop in loan maturities. Property types that increased were hotels (4%), industrial and healthcare (19%), multifamily (30%). Among investors, life company loans decreased by 32%, 8% increase for commercial banks, 30% increase for GSEs, no change in volume for CMBS. Source: Commercial Quarterly Data Book – 3rd Q 2011 Mortgage Bankers Association Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Loan Originations
Loans are subject to credit approval. Outstanding U.S. CRE Debt Total Commercial and Multifamily = [$2.42 Trillion] Insurance companies = [$338 Billion (14%)] GSEs = [$369 Billion (15.25%)] CMBS = [$579 Billion (24%)] Banks/Thrifts = [$811 Billion (33.50%)] Other = [$319 Billion (13.25%)]
Loans are subject to credit approval. Source: Commercial Quarterly Data Book – 3rd Q 2011 Mortgage Bankers Association Quarterly Originations
Loans are subject to credit approval. Quarterly Issuance of CMBS Billions of Dollars
Loans are subject to credit approval. $2.38 trillion in outstanding commercial/multifamily mortgage debt in Q3 2012, $6.6 billion higher than Q2 2012, as three of the four major investor groups increased their holdings. Fannie, Freddie, FHA, life insurance companies, and banks all increased their holdings and/or guarantees of commercial and multifamily mortgages, outpacing a decline in the balance of commercial and multifamily mortgages held in commercial mortgage backed securities. Source: Commercial Quarterly Data Book – 3rd Q 2011 Mortgage Bankers Association Commercial and Multifamily Mortgage Loan Market Share
Loans are subject to credit approval. Based on UPB by Investor Group at end of Q Life Companies0.12% (60+ days) (0.19% in 2011) Freddie Mac 0.27% (60+ days) (0.33% in 2011) Fannie Mae 0.28% (60+ days) (0.57% in 2011) Banks 2.93% (90+ days) (3.76% in 2011) CMBS 8.86% (30+ & REO) (8.92% in 2011) Source: Commercial Quarterly Data Book – 3rd Q 2011 Mortgage Bankers Association Delinquency Rates DQ rates decreased for commercial and multifamily mortgage loans in Q3 DQ rates on bank-held loans is at lowest level since beginning of 2009 DQ rates for CMBS continues to stabilize.
Loans are subject to credit approval. CMBS Maturities $492 Billion over next six years CMBS Maturities (In Billions) Total≤ 1.0x1.0x x> 1.20xLTV > 100% 80%-100% LTVLTV < 80% 2013 $ $ 6.36 $ 5.35 $ $ $ 3.85 $ $ $ $ $ $ $ Source: TREPP
Loans are subject to credit approval What Was Hot Multifamily – 80% LTV, 4% rate Grocery-Anchored Retail – 75%, 4.25% Office – 70%, rollover, TIs Industrial – 70%, 20 year amort 2013 What’s Hot Multifamily – 85%, 3.50% Grocery-Anchored Retail – 75%, 4% Office / MOB – 75%, rollover, focus on TIs Industrial – 75%, rollover Hospitality – 70%, 10.75% DY, 235bps over Self-Storage – 75% Credit Retail – fully amortizing to lease term CMBS – 75%, A-B Structures down to 1.10x 2012 What Wasn’t Unanchored Retail – 60%, rollover Hospitality/Lodging – go away Self-Storage – 9% caps 2012 What’s Not Unanchored Retail – 65%, historical tenancy
Loans are subject to credit approval. Historical 10 Year Treasury Yield Curve, 1962 – 2013 July % 1.38% July 2013
Loans are subject to credit approval. 10 Year Treasury Yield Curve, March 2011 to March Year Treasury Yield Curve, March 2012 to March % 1.71% 2.27% 2.37% 1.38% 2.03% -99bps
Loans are subject to credit approval. Bob Hukill, Senior Vice President | Velinda Dismukes, Assistant Vice President | Wesley Fricks, Analyst | Grandbridge Real Estate Capital – Raleigh Office 700 Spring Forest Rd, Suite 325 Raleigh, NC 27609