By Foster, Haltiwanger & Krizan, (ReStat, 2006) The Link Between Aggregate And Micro Productivity Growth: Evidence From Retail Trade Presented by David.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Estimates of Capital Input Index by Industries of China, Sun Linlin, Beihang University Ren Ruoen Beihang University.
Advertisements

Strengthening long-term growth in Argentina D. Artana, E. Bour, J.L. Bour y N. Susmel OECD Seminar Beyond the crisis – Returning to sustainable growth.
1 GDP OF HEALTH SERVICES – INDIAS ESTIMATION PROCEDURES Ramesh Kolli Additional Director General Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation.
Firm-Level Productivity in Bangladesh Manufacturing Industries Ana M. Fernandes The World Bank (DECRG) Bangladesh: A Strategy for Growth and Employment.
The Role of Employment for Growth and Poverty Reduction PREM learning week 2007 Catalina Gutierrez Pieter Serneels.
Retail Market Structure and Dynamics: A Three Country Comparison of Japan, the U.K. and the U.S. Jonathan Haskel, Ron Jarmin, Kazu Motohashi and Raffaella.
Productivity Perspectives depend on your point of view Eric Bartelsman Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute Canberra, ABS/PC Dec. 9, 2004.
Nick Bloom, Economics of Human Resources, 2011 Economics of Human Resources Nick Bloom (Stanford Economics) Lecture 1: Management and firm Performance.
Chapter 2: Reallocation and Productivity. Outline IPES I. Setting the stage –Chapter 1: Productivity level and trends –Chapter 2: Productivity and Reallocation.
Improving capital measurement using micro data Abdul Azeez Erumban CBS, the Hague.
Foreign Investment and Firm Productivity Dr. Hiau Looi Kee Development Research Group World Bank August 2005 I thank the World Bank, CIDA and DFID for.
Technology and Skill: An Analysis of Within and Between Firm Differences John Abowd, John Haltiwanger, Julia Lane, Kevin McKinney, and Kristin Sandusky.
Understanding Wage and Productivity Dispersion in the United Kingdom by Giulia Faggio, Kjell G. Salvanes and John Van Reenen Preliminary.
The UK Productivity Puzzle, : Evidence using Plant Level Estimates of Total Factor Productivity presentation by Richard Harris This work contains.
Nick Bloom, Econ 247, 2011 Nick Bloom Productivity and Reallocation.
The Modern Firm in Theory and Practice Nick Bloom (Stanford Economics and GSB) Lecture 1: Productivity, firms and plants 1.
Location Patterns Dominated by Cohesion Chapter 5.
Structural Transformation and Growth in China: Loren Brandt (U. of Toronto) Chang-Tai Hsieh (Berkeley) Xiaodong Zhu (U. of Toronto) Preliminary.
Nick Bloom, Econ 247, 2015 Nick Bloom Productivity and Reallocation.
Nick Bloom, Macro Topics, Spring 2009 MACRO TOPICS Nick Bloom Heterogeneity and Reallocation.
1 J. de Loecker Do Exports Generate Higher Productivity? Evidence from Slovenia (Journal of Int’l Economics, Sep. 2007) presented by Yunrong Li.
Economics 215 Intermediate Macroeconomics Introduction.
WORKSHOP ON INDUSTRIAL STATITICS, 8 – 10 JULY 2013 COUNTRY PRESENTATION MALDIVES.
Copyright © 2010 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Chapter 17 Labor Productivity: Wages, Prices, and Employment.
1 The Industry Origins of the Second Surge of U.S. Productivity Growth Kevin J. Stiroh* Federal Reserve Bank of New York May 2006 *These comments are the.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin © 2006 The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., All Rights Reserved. The U.S. Economy: A Global View Chapter 2.
Intangible Investment and Economic Growth in Japan Kyoji FUKAO (Hitotsubashi University, RIETI, NISTEP) Tsutomu MIYAGAWA (Gakushuin University, RIETI)
Firm Heterogeneity: Implications for Wage Inequality and Aggregate Growth Dale T. Mortensen Northwestern and Aarhus University ISEO Summer School June.
Productivity and Growth of Japanese Prefectures Prepared for the 3 rd World KLEMS Conference, Tokyo, May 19-20, Joji Tokui (Shinshu University and.
What’s Happening on Main Street Montana Main Street Montana Project Roundtable Great Falls, Montana June 12, 2013.
1 COMMENTS ON THE PAPER “China’s Measure in Real Term for Education” Ramesh Kolli Additional Director General Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation.
Chapter 17: Labor Productivity: Wages, Prices, and Employment
GDP, the National Accounts, and Census Economic Data Brent Moulton March 15, 2007.
Trade with China and skill upgrading: Evidence from Belgium Firm-Level Data G. Mion, H. Vandenbussche, L. Zhu.
Impact of Regulatory and Institutional Changes on Plant-level Productivity and Technical Efficiency: Evidence from the Indian Manufacturing Sector Sumon.
ICT, Corporate Restructuring and Productivity Laura Abramovsky Rachel Griffith IFS and UCL ZEW – November 2007 Workshop on Innovative Capabilities and.
Adjusted Estimates of Worker Flows and Job Openings in JOLTS May 2008 Steven Davis, University of Chicago and NBER Jason Faberman, Federal Reserve Bank.
Nick Bloom, Macro Topics, Spring 2008 MACRO TOPICS Nick Bloom Heterogeneity and Reallocation.
The United States Research and Development Satellite Account: Estimates and Challenges Brent R. Moulton Joint UNECE/Eurostat/OECD Meeting on National Accounts.
Total Factor Productivity Reference: Dynamic Manufacturing.
Experimental Industry Estimates in BEA’s R&D Satellite Account Carol A. Robbins Industry Accounts Data Users Meeting October 26, 2007.
Business R&D Intensity in Canada and the United States: Does Firm Size Matter? Presentation to: The 2008 World Congress on National Accounts and Economic.
Copyright © 2014 McGraw-Hill Education. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw-Hill Education.
National Institute of Economic and Social Research Public Sector Output: Output Indicators and Welfare Indicators Martin Weale.
Average Vacancy Duration Jumps to All-Time High in February Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago Booth School of Business April 7, 2015
Average Vacancy Duration Is Nearly Unchanged in December: The Broader Trends Is Toward Tighter Labor Markets Dr. Steven J. Davis University of Chicago.
Comments on “Economies with a Large Labor Force” Ann Harrison UC Berkeley, IGC, and NBER September 27, 2011.
Development and Reform Research Team University of Bologna Lectures on Job Creation and Job Destruction With applications to transition economies Prof.
Progressing Priorities for Structural Reform; A case of Japan February 26 th, 2007 Naohiro Yashiro International Christian University and Council for Economic.
1 1 Workshop on Improving Statistics on SME's and Entrepreneurship, Paris, September 2003 Differences in entry and exit in European countries – findings.
On the Estimation of Returns to Scale, Technical Progress and Monopolistic Markups by Erwin Diewert and Kevin Fox Discussion by Susanto Basu Comments on.
McGraw-Hill/Irwin ©2008 The McGraw-Hill Companies, All Rights Reserved The U.S. Economy: A Global View Chapter 2.
Firm demography and aggregate productivity growth: The Swedish case Lars Fredrik Andersson.
A good measure of productivity Eric Bartelsman Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and Tinbergen Institute Washington, World Bank, October 31, 2005.
FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND PRODUCTIVITY SPILLOVERS: Firm Level Evidence from Chilean industrial sector. Leopoldo LabordaDaniel Sotelsek University of.
Estimating the Causal Effect of Access to Public Credit on Productivity: the case of Brazil Eduardo P. Ribeiro (IE – UFRJ, Brazil) João A. De Negri (IPEA,
Innovation and Productivity – Evidence from China Jingying Xu, Prof. Andreas Waldkirch Department of Economics ABSTRACT BACKGROUND STRATEGIES CONCLUSION.
Comparison of Estimation Methods for Agricultural Productivity Yu Sheng ABARES the Superlative vs. the Quantity- based Index Approach August 2015.
CHAPTER 2 © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard A Tour of the Book Prepared by: Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano.
CHAPTER 2 © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Macroeconomics, 4/e Olivier Blanchard A Tour of the Book Prepared by: Fernando Quijano and Yvonn Quijano.
African Centre for Statistics United Nations Economic Commission for Africa Expert Group Meeting: to review “Handbook on Supply and Use Table, Compilation,Application,and.
Productivity in Chinese Industry: (Very) Preliminary Findings
Firm dynamics, productivity and job creation: Some evidence
Hitotsubashi University and RIETI Hitotsubashi University
Local government accounts
Fifth World KLEMS June 4, 2018 Joji Tokui and Takeshi Mizuta
October 18, 2005 Ron Jarmin, Shawn Klimek, and Javier Miranda
Price and Volume Measures
“Post-crisis productivity: Lessons from the UK”
Price and Volume Measures
Presentation transcript:

By Foster, Haltiwanger & Krizan, (ReStat, 2006) The Link Between Aggregate And Micro Productivity Growth: Evidence From Retail Trade Presented by David Lagakos, Nov 15, 2006

Why Link Aggregate Productivity Growth to Micro Data? Reallocation of inputs is important determinant of aggregate productivity - Shrinking (exiting) of less productive firms - Evidence from manufacturing: - Expanding (entering) of more productive firms - Around 1/3 of productivity growth due to reallocation (The other 2/3 comes from productivity gains within plants)

Why Link Aggregate Productivity Growth to Micro Data? Reallocation of inputs is important determinant of aggregate productivity - Shrinking (exiting) of less productive firms - Evidence from manufacturing: - Expanding (entering) of more productive firms - Around 1/3 of productivity growth due to reallocation (The other 2/3 comes from productivity gains within plants) Why do we care whether productivity growth due to reallocation or not? - Effects on Y/L of policies that prevent reallocation (say firing taxes) - Understanding technological adoption

Why Retail Trade? Structural changes over last 50 years Important industry (~15% of private non-farm employment) - emergence of large chain retailers - decline of the “mom & pop” shop Technology improvements over the 1990s Importance of reallocation on productivity growth largely undocumented - improved inventory control (Levinsohn & Petropoulos, 2001) - more efficient distribution & advertising (Holmes, 2006) - adoption of scanners & other IT equipment (Sieling et al, 2006)

This Paper Quantifies role of reallocation in retail labor productivity Quantifies role of entry of chain stores Documents establishment level productivity dynamics in retail - Census of retail trade,

Census of Retail Trade Survey of 10% of all retail establishments Conducted every five years (1987, 1992, 1997) Establishment-level data available - employment - total sales - parent firm -4-digit SIC industry code (e.g. supermarket, car dealership)

Census of Retail Trade Survey of 10% of all retail establishments Conducted every five years (1987, 1992, 1997) Establishment-level data available - employment - total sales Establishment-level data unavailable - capital or land inputs - cost of goods purchased - cost of other intermediate goods/services - parent firm -4-digit SIC industry code (e.g. supermarket, car dealership)

Measure of Productivity Real output per worker (Y/L) - Numerator : total sales deflated by 4-digit industry-level price index - Denominator : Number of employees x 4-digit industry average hours Issues: - Within retail, across-industry productivity comparisons are meaningless - Other inputs excluded - Deflated by common price deflator - Higher service/higher price establishments show up as higher Y/L - Y/L growth could reflect increases in capital intensity

Establishment-Level Productivity Dynamics Object of interest : distribution of Y/L changes from 1987 to 1997 Of establishments present in 1987, possible states in 1997 are - Alive, in productivity quintile #1, #2, … #5 - Dead Of establishments present in 1997, possible states in 1987 are - Not born yet - Alive, in productivity quintile #1, #2, … #5 Productivity measurement - Express every establishment’s Y/L in deviation from 4-digit industry mean - Allows us to look at all retail industries simultaneously

Productivity Transition Matrix

Establishment Productivity Dynamics Comparison with manufacturing - Baily, Hulton & Campbell (1992): - manufacturing plant survival much more likely Summary: entry & exit plays crucial role in retail - Most likely outcome in 1997 for any establishment in 1987 = death - Less productive establishments much more likely to die - conditional on survival, persistence is similar to retail

Retail-Sector Productivity Growth Decomposition Object of interest : retail sector productivity growth, Goal : decompose productivity growth into - growth due to continuing establishments - growth due to entering/exiting establishments

Retail-Sector Productivity Growth Decomposition within-establishment growth changing shares cross term entering establishments exiting establishments C = set of continuing establishments N = set of entering establishments X = set of exiting establishments ‘e’ indexes an establishment ‘i’ indexes the industry = establishment employment share

Retail-Sector Productivity Growth Decomposition 1.8% 2.8% -4.5% 6.2% 5.1% C = set of continuing establishments N = set of entering establishments X = set of exiting establishments ‘e’ indexes an establishment ‘i’ indexes the industry = establishment employment share 11.4% Total:

Retail-Sector Productivity Growth Decomposition 1.8% 2.8% -4.5% 6.2% 5.1% C = set of continuing establishments N = set of entering establishments X = set of exiting establishments ‘e’ indexes an establishment ‘i’ indexes the industry = establishment employment share 11.4% Total: 0.1% 11.3%

Retail-Sector Productivity Growth Accounting Retail productivity growth entering establishments more productive than average - Entry & exit accounts for virtually all productivity growth Comparison with manufacturing - Entry & exit accounts for just 1/3 of productivity growth (Baily, Hulten & Campbell, 1992) - exiting establishments less productive than average

Questions about these Findings What role do chain stores play in this reallocation process? Are entering stores more efficient? Or just more K/L intensive? Why would retail be so different from manufacturing?

Role of Chain Stores Firm types: - Single-unit establishments - Local chain (multi-establishment, one state) - Regional chain (multi-establishment, 2 -5 states) - National chain (multi-establishment, >5 states)

Role of Chain Stores Firm types: - Single-unit establishments - Local chain (multi-establishment, one state) - Regional chain (multi-establishment, 2 -5 states) - National chain (multi-establishment, >5 states) Classification of establishments: - Single-unit establishment - Part of local chain - Part of regional chain - Part of national chain

Role of Chain Stores Establishment-level productivity regression: Parameters of interest:

Role of Chain Stores

Highest Y/L - Entering national & regional chain stores Lowest Y/L - Exiting single-establishment stores - Continuing national & regional chain stores Y/L gap between national chain store and exiting single-establishment log points ~ 50%

Capital Intensity How much do Y/L differences just reflect K/L differences? Census of retail -> no data on capital Alternate data source: Business Expenditure Survey, Book value of capital by establishment - Can look only at retail establishments

Capital Intensity Capital Per Worker

Capital Intensity Capital Per Worker ~50% more K/L in chains

Conclusions Y/L growth in retail trade explained by reallocation “Reallocation dynamics are an important part of the story in manufacturing, and in retail trade they are the whole story over the 1990s” Preliminary evidence on K/L suggest K/L differences play a big role - I agree with authors that better data needed here - Unclear that TFP higher in chain stores than individual stores - If TFP not higher in chains, how come they have displaced the individual stores?