QUATERMASS: Modelling greenhouse gas baseline projections and mitigation potentials in the forestry sector and their relevance for policy Robert Matthews, Ewan Mackie, Paul Henshall, Tim Randle, Miriam White, Gemma Miller and Paul Taylor Forest Research Centre for Forest Resources & Management Alice Holt Research Station, Farnham UNITED KINGDOM

Forestry projections and potentials 12 May 2010 Potential GHG impacts of future LULUCF activities in developed countries under the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol

Forestry projections and potentials 12 May 2010 Research policy context UNFCCC Businesses, NGOs and consumers Kyoto Treaty/Protocol UK government Sector potentials for emissions reductions National emissions trajectories/ reduction targets Voluntary action Pre-emptive action Improved practice Forestry Commission Forestry

Forestry projections and potentials 12 May 2010 GHG dynamics in forest systems Emissions, removals, saturation, reversibility Complex, time-dependent responses Human and natural impacts (When evaluating and monitoring measures, natural impacts need to be ‘factored out’ as part of dealing with additionality) Risks Outcomes are not always reliable or certain A large number of diverse actors are involved Indirect Land Use Change (ILUC) Also to bear in mind Wider impacts/co-benefits in forestry Harvested wood products (HWP) Contributions of biomass/HWP in Energy and Industrial sectors.

Forestry projections and potentials 12 May 2010 Taking action in the forestry sector Reduce deforestation Afforestation Changes to management in existing forests Enhance carbon stocks (longer rotations, less production). Supply more bioenergy/timber (more production).

Forestry projections and potentials 12 May 2010 Basic requirements for baseline projection A carbon accounting model applicable at large scales - CARBINE. Data on forest areas - FAO. Data on forest areas by age class - generally FAO. Estimates of species composition - country reports. Estimates of rates of afforestation and deforestation (since 1990) - country reports. Estimates of species-site productivity - literature. Baseline description of how forests are being managed (in/not in production, thinning regime, rotations) - country reports and calibration.

Forestry projections and potentials 12 May 2010 CARBINE

Forestry projections and potentials 12 May 2010 Pre-processor Assumptions about developments since 1990: Afforestation Deforestation Estate simulator CARBINE Assumptions about developments from specified year: Afforestation Deforestation Species Yield class Management regime Rotation. Inventory dataSpecies/productivity/management assumptions Assumptions about sois: % Sand % Loam % Gley % Peaty.

Forestry projections and potentials 12 May 2010 Carbon stocks over time SoilTreesLitterHWP(Subs.) Carbon sinks/sources over time SoilTreesLitterHWPSubs. Reporting periods e.g Sinks/sources by period/activity: ‘FRF’, A, R, D, FM.

Forestry projections and potentials 12 May 2010 Example of pitfall that can be enountered: accounting for restocking/new planting

Forestry projections and potentials 12 May 2010 Testing the methodology: initial, simple scenarios (Annex I countries only) RD - reduced deforestation AF - afforestation FM-A forest conservation (longer rotations, reduced production) FM-B increased biomass/timber production (light) FM-C increased biomass/timber production (moderate) FM-D extra biomass/timber production from forest areas previously in reserve.

Forestry projections and potentials 12 May 2010 Initial, simple scenarios: FM-A In each country: Suspend harvesting in 5% or 1 million hectares of forest area, whichever is the smaller. Extend rotations in 50% of forest area already in production. Rotations are extended by 25% or 20 years, whichever is the smaller.

Forestry projections and potentials 12 May 2010 Afforestation Year 2020 Period Based on simulations using Forest Research CARBINE model produced for UK Department of Energy and Climate Change

Forestry projections and potentials 12 May 2010 Forest Management (conservation, FM-A) Year 2020 Period Based on simulations using Forest Research CARBINE model produced for UK Department of Energy and Climate Change

Forestry projections and potentials 12 May 2010 Afforestation Year 2020 Period Based on simulations using Forest Research CARBINE model produced for UK Department of Energy and Climate Change Additional mitigation in Energy and Industry sectors due to increased biomass and timber availability

Forestry projections and potentials 12 May 2010 Forest Management (conservation, FM-A) Year 2020 Period Based on simulations using Forest Research CARBINE model produced for UK Department of Energy and Climate Change Additional emissions in Energy and Industry sectors due to reduced biomass and timber availability

Forestry projections and potentials 12 May 2010 Summary results for 5-year period around 2030

Forestry projections and potentials 12 May 2010 Extend to globe Potentials at carbon prices Harmonisation with country reports? Ongoing work

Forestry projections and potentials 12 May 2010 Model-based/default values Inventory-based Plot/survey-based Enumeration-based Towards implementation (QUEST JIFor)