Challenges and Needs in Research Views of Japan -emerging challenges and policy needs- Hiroki Kondo Advisor to the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan Dialogue on Research in SBSTA32 (3 June 2010 ）

Prioritized Subjects as research needs in climate change research area Selected important subjects in climate change research area under Environment Satelliteobservation ― Satellite observation of greenhouse gases and land GOSAT surface layer GOSAT (launched in 2009), etc. (= Global Greenhouse Gas Observation by Satellite) Climate change projection for 21 st century by climate ― Climate change projection for 21 st century by climate modeling modeling （ Science & technology to project climate change in the 21 st century by using the supercomputer as a sound base for Post-Kyoto policy) Climate change risk assessment & adaptation ― Climate change risk assessment & adaptation, and the scenarios and pathways toward low carbon societies Besides National Core Technology ： Next generation supercomputer ― Next generation supercomputer Data ― Observation and Ocean Exploration System （ including Data Integration and Analysis System （ DIAS) Integration and Analysis System （ DIAS) ） 、

unequivocal  “ Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, ….” very likely  “Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations 12.” 12 Consideration of remaining uncertainty is based on current methodologies.  “the largest source of uncertainty  “Cloud feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertainty.” stronger climate-carbon cycle feed backs  “ Assessed upper ranges for temperature projections are larger than in the TAR (see Table SPM-3) mainly because the broader range of models now available suggests stronger climate-carbon cycle feed backs.” very likely  “It is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent.” ・・・・・・・・・・・・・ Strong concerns about global warming and its impacts Strong concerns about global warming and its impacts on natural disasters, in particular, from policy makers on natural disasters, in particular, from policy makers Increasing challenges for further reliable projection Increasing challenges for further reliable projection Research Challenges from the IPCC/WG1/ AR4

 Better simulation of physical and biogeochemical processes sufficiently reflecting feedbacks Advancing climate modeling and projection A) Advancing climate modeling and projection  Addressing uncertainties in climate model projection Quantification and reduction of uncertainty B) Quantification and reduction of uncertainty  Impact assessment on natural disasters by extreme events through sufficiently high resolution projection Application of regional projection to natural C) Application of regional projection to natural disasters disasters Research challenges related to climate change projection to be addressed

Research needs for policy and projection targets to meet them  Needs of better scientific basis for long-term stability issues in mitigation, etc. Long-term global environmental projection using an earth system model  Needs of climate information in the near future for adaptation and other policy measures Near-term climate projection (or prediction) using a high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM  Needs of regionally detail projection of extremes for regionally reliable adaptation in vulnerable countries Projection of extremes in the future using a super-high resolution atmospheric model  Related areas to be coordinated: Advanced Re-analysis system for model verification

Contribution to IPCC AR5 Scientific Basis for Policymakers Contribution to IPCC AR5 Scientific Basis for Policymakers Long-Term Global Change Projection (~2300) Climate change projection using the Earth Simulator (ES) using the Earth Simulator (ES) Advancing Climate Modeling and Projection Quantification and reduction of uncertainty Application of Regional Projections to Natural Disasters Near-Term Climate Prediction (20~30 years prediction) Extreme Event Projection (Typhoons, Hurricanes, Heavy rain, etc.) Cloud Resolvable Modeling Parameterization of Marine Microphysics Ongoing Coordination to address challenges and needs in research (Japan) Impact Assessment Studies (MOE) (MEXT) Close Coordination Adaptation Studies Model output

climate change projection outcomes with finer temporal and spatial resolution with Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV) studies and then specifically with risk assessment and adaptation and scenarios and pathways toward low carbon societies at local and regional levels Increasing needs for closer coordination

Theme 1 Study on finer resolution qualitative assessment of climate change impacts in Japan at the national and local levels Fine resolution climate prediction Contribution to policy making processes Theme 2 Study on adaptation policy measures to be mainstreamed into local government development policies Theme 3 Study on indicators for vulnerability assessment and measuring the effect of adaptation in developing countries  Quantitative assessment of climate change impacts at the national and local levels  Development of impact assessment and adaptation policy tools for local governments and developing countries  Contributions to IPCC AR5 and other international initiatives AP Adaptation Network New research project on impact and adaptation (FY2010 – 2014) Health DisasterFood Forest 8