SIPR Dundee

© Crown copyright Scottish Flood Forecasting Service Pete Buchanan – Met Office Richard Maxey – SEPA SIPR, Dundee, 21 June 2011

© Crown copyright SFFS The ‘Weather Machine ’

© Crown copyright OBSERVATI0NS DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS

© Crown copyright Observations – Monitoring and Validation Lightning Detection Weather Radar Weather Station Satellite Data River Gauges

© Crown copyright Deterministic Forecasts - First ‘Guess’ machine data Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Gives us an initial look at the ‘what’ (type of precipitation, intensity and amount), the ‘where’, the ‘when’ and ‘how much’? Various models, diagnostics and post processing including wave, currents and surge for coastal forecasting Hydrological Models Objective look at the impacts of the weather on river flows and flood risk

© Crown copyright Probabilistic Forecasts – What is the likelihood of it happening? We can objectively measure the probability of critical events occurring by analysing the uncertainty in a particular forecast. When matched with impact, the overall risk can be assessed. As with the deterministic weather data, probabilistic weather data can be fed into the hydrological models to look a range of outcomes for the hydrological forecasts and hence build probabilities of critical river thresholds being exceeded.

© Crown copyright REAL WORLD MACHINE WORLD EXPERT GUIDANCE HYDROLOGIST METEOROLOGIST FLOOD GUIDANCE STATEMENT (FGS) INPUTS ANALYSIS OUTPUT CONSULTATIONIMPROVEMENTSDEVELOPMENTS SEPA FLOOD ADVISORS MET OFFICE PWS ADVISORS SFFS OPERATIONAL TEAMS USERS CASE STUDIES WORKSHOPS STAKEHOLDER MEETINGS TRAINING LIAISON REFINING PRODUCING FEEDBACK TO SCIENTISTS FEEDBACK TO MODELERS REVIEW PRODUCTS AND METHODS INTRODUCE NEW TECHNOLOGY

© Crown copyright SFFS Operational Support -24 HR watch and technical support -Strong and effective partnership between Met Office, SEPA and Stakeholders

© Crown copyright What is likely to happen in the future? Supercomputer Upgrade IBM Power 7 upgrade in 2011 will triple Met Office supercomputer capacity. This will pave the way for significant science and capability developments during 2012 and beyond. Exploiting Uncertainty New, sophisticated high resolution ensemble forecasting systems will improve the forecasting of the probability of a significant event occurring - giving us even more confidence in the Flood Guidance Statement status. ‘Strategic Intervention’ will enable the Chief Forecaster to choose the best data for downstream product generation

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Flood vigilance and early alerting Raise early awareness of potential flooding through a 5 day flood forecast Flood Alert stage to warn people of the possibility of flooding

© Crown copyright SEPA Flood Forecasting Hydrologist Normally based in Perth On call Met Office Public Weather Desk Based in Aberdeen 24 hour shift working

© Crown copyright Flood Guidance Statement

© Crown copyright Flood Guidance Statement Flood risk for next 5 days Colour coded Rivers, Coastal, Surface Water Issued daily (or more frequently) Spatial detail depends on lead time Issued to Cat 1 & 2 responders and SEPA

© Crown copyright Days 1 and 2 Flood Alert areas

© Crown copyright Days 3, 4, 5 Strategic Coordination Group areas

© Crown copyright Flood Risk Matrix

© Crown copyright

Daily production SEPA and Met Office telephone discussions Final issue by days a year Afternoon and evening updates when appropriate

© Crown copyright Distribution

© Crown copyright Flood Alerts Early awareness of possible flooding Be vigilant, prepare for flooding Cover the whole of Scotland Medium risk (amber) corresponds to Flood Alert Issued by SFFS via Floodline Warnings Direct

© Crown copyright

Future challenges Scotland-wide gridded model Forecasts “everywhere” Probabilistic forecasting Snow melt Short duration intense rainfall events

SCOTTISH FLOOD FORECASTING SERVICE