Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA: INFLUENCE ON THE SPACE ENVIRONMENT AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THEIR FORECAST V.N. Ishkov, IZMIRAN

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Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA The current solar cycle under all characteristics fall in cycles of average size. The basic stages of development the current 23 cycles of solar activity the following: – the minimum of 22 solar cycle - May 1996 (W* = 8.0); – the maximum of relative number of solar spots - April, 2000; – the epoch of global solar magnetic sign reversal – July – December, 2000; – the secondary maximum of the solar spots relative number – November, 2001; – a maximum of a radio emission flux on a wave of 10.7 cm – February, 2002; – the probable point of a minimum of the current solar activity cycle – March 2007.

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA SOLAR FLARE EVENT Solar flare and solar filament ejections Solar flares represent reaction of a solar atmosphere of the Sun to fast process of allocation of the magnetic nature energy which leads to sharp local heating of all layers of a solar atmosphere, generation of electromagnetic radiation in a wide range of wave lengths from γ- quanta ( cm) up to kilometer radio waves (106 cm), and also to acceleration electrons, protons and heavy ions. Filament eruptions or “disparition brusque” are the two-ribbon “flare- like brightening” event with slower rise times (about 1 hour), considerably longer lifetimes (up to 3 hours) beyond solar sunspot groups. No evidence of any impulsive phase microwave or hard X-ray emissions. These events are accompanied by weak gradual thermal soft x-ray (≤C7) microwave flux (≤50 s.f.u.) and cool loop arcades at last stage of event evolution.

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA МF(gs) М clas Phenom Imp. Max F см max Х imp γ CME AFFS Н α; sep 1 - 8Å <50 – DSF Brightening <50 ≤C7 – + + <500 – СВ 4N ≤300 ≤M7 – + + ≤2000 γ, δ СВ 3B >10000 >X >2500 δ СВ 1B <10000 ≤M5 + – – (X6)

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA SOLAR CORONAL HOLES – the most long-living geoeffective phenomena on the Sun now are considered. Greater coronal hole usually exists 4-8 solar rotations, practically not changing the position. Sources of recurrent magnetic storms and solar electronic events are low-latitude coronal holes.

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA Agents causing these disturbances are: transient structures – coronal mass ejection being consequence of active processes in flares and eruption of solar filaments; observation CME enables to specify a direction of movement of disturbances in interplanetary space and an opportunity of its arrival to space environment. The high-speed streams of the solar plasma following a shock wave from powerful flare events or expiring from areas with an open configuration of a magnetic field (CH).

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA " SPACE WEATHER " now is understood as the term a condition of magnetosphere, ionosphere, troposphere, etc – all layers of a Earth's environment space in any set interval of time which is defined by the active phenomena on the Sun. Electromagnetic and plasma disturbances from the solar geoeffective phenomena (flare processes, coronal holes) through a solar wind extend in a heliosphere, influence on planet magnetospheres, their satellites and comets and cause significant deviations from a background, quiet condition practically all layers of considered objects.

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA 1. ( R ) – Electromagnetic impact during which in short-wave ranges the flux of radiation raises on some orders concerning background values. In a range of soft X-ray 1 – 8A (12.5 – 1 keV) increase of a flux can reach 4 orders. There of influences it is direct during the moment of flare development (characteristic time of the disturbance development beginning are minutes after the beginning of flare) in environment develop SIDs, causing full radio silence in a range of high frequencies on the shined party of the Earth which duration reaches several hours, breaking a radio communication with the ships and planes. In a range of low frequencies on the shined party of a planet sharply increase and collect within many hours of a mistake per navigating systems of definition of positions of terrestrial objects and satellites. The five-point scale of an estimation of this sort of disturbances is entered, which varies from R1 for M-flares (up to 2000 events on a cycle), up to R5 for the most powerful flares which x-ray importance X>17/5 (1-10 times for a cycle).

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA The reflection of solar flare on the disk of Saturn

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA 2. (S) – Particle impact – Solar Proton Event Ejection of solar particles (p+, e-,n 0 ), which, reaching environment, are cause solar proton events. Characteristic time of the solar proton event onset concerning the solar proton flare onset are hours though particles with GeV energies come to the Earth with speed of light. S1S2S3S4S5 10/19/1989 – 40,000 03/21/1991 – 43,000 10/28/2003 – 33,600 11/04/2001 – 31,700 Bigger (since 1976):

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA Invading by space environment the solar energetic particles (E pr > 10 MeV) sharply raise a level of radiating danger to cosmonauts, crews and passengers of high-altitude planes at high longitudes, lead to losses of satellites and failure of the scientific and navigating equipment on space objects, interrupt realization of short-wave communication in sub polar regions and promote sharp increase of mistakes in navigating systems. It leads to difficulties in definition of coordinates of ground and space objects.

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA 3. (G) – Plasma impact – GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES : Interplanetary shock waves and streams of solar wind plasma the raised density and-or speed (the transient structures, solar wind high-speed streams) cause in space environment magnetic and ionosphere disturbances. For geomagnetic field disturbance which intensity exceeds a threshold of magnetic storms, the five-point system of their estimation too is entered: from G1 for disturbances, in which even one three-hour Кр- index has reached value 5 (not less 1500 times for a solar cycle) up to G5 - with Кр=9 (1 - 5 times for a solar cycle). It is necessary to have in view of, that the given point estimates intensity of geomagnetic disturbance - it is quite possible to present a situation when disturbance has point G1 or G2, but the magnetic storm actually is not present also day time geomagnetic Ар an index will be less threshold of a magnetic storm.

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA Aurora on Jupiter, Uran, and Saturn

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA The forecast of the geoeffective solar phenomena here is understood as set of forecasts all kinds which problem includes calculation of processes development and the phenomena occurring in a solar atmosphere both directly influencing on magnetic and radiating conditions in a space environment on set intervals of time. The forecast of disturbances of Earth’s environment space, directly depends on the successful reliable forecast of the solar geoeffective phenomena, such as large flare events (solar flares, ejecta of solar filament) and coronal holes. English versionhttp://titan.wdcb.ru/virbo_rus/viewlast.do?section=RBBulletin Russian version Russian version

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA Short-term geoeffective flare event forecasting is presently based on observations by - the process of new magnetic flux emergencies, their evolution: the magnitude and rate of emergence, their localization and interaction with already existing magnetic fields of the active regions or outside of their. This physical process has the concrete: beginning - the emergence of a new magnetic flux ( d), maximum - the period of time when middle and large flares occur ( d), end - when the energy of EFR are realized fully. Total time of flare EFR evolution days but in cases with very large sunspot groups this temporal interval may be up days. AR10720; 1 ПВЭ (17 h) :(Х 2 +М 9 ) [4], II ПВЭ (9 h ): (Х 1 +М 3) – [1], IIIПВЭ (39 h ): (Х 2 +М 4 ) – [3]

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA The some essential observational peculiarities of the solar flare realization: - all large flares necessarily accompanied by middle importance flares; - solar flares of large and middle importance are not randomly distributed in time but form the successions; Obashev et al., 1973; Ishkov,1989; - in most cases they occurs within a certain limited temporal interval (Ishkov,1989). The temporal interval during which the bulk of large and moderate solar flares occur we will call as “THE PERIOD OF FLARE ENERGY RELEASE” (PFER); - PFER occurs on 2 – 3 days after the first evidences the emergence of a new sufficiently powerful magnetic flux; PFER may last from 16 to 80 hours (the average duration is about 55 +/- 30 h. or 5- 25% of whole time of AR passage across the solar disk) depending on the degree of AR evolution, parameters of its magnetic field and characteristics of a new emerging flux. To occur other large solar flares in given active region a new large magnetic flux emergence must be taken place. - AR10720 (N09L177; X M 19 +C 65 ; XRI=21.5),

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA The forecast of solar filament eruptions – only direct new magnetic flux emergences observations in weak magnetic fields will enable to predict these phenomena. The new MF cooperates with a background magnetic field and can leave only in the field of a neutral line of a longitudinal magnetic field. A unique authentic observant attribute of filament eruption preparation in our opinion is occurrence of weak emission in ranges soft X-ray and an extreme ultraviolet in area of the future eject for 2-4 day prior to the beginning of process. This issue can be observed only in pictures with the good spatial resolution (YOHKOH and SOHO). Full size NMFE cannot be less than Wb, and speed of ejection should exceed Wb/s. Forecast new MF emergence is possible with the big share of uncertainty and the forecast of disturbances in Earth’s environment should be spent on the fact of realization of events. Geoefficiency the event, as well as any flare phenomena, is defined by their localization on a visible solar disk, the sizes (capacity flare events), and an arrangement concerning existing coronal holes. Streams of protons, from these dynamic phenomena are small both on a protons fluxes, and on power.

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA Sources of recurrent magnetic storms and solar electronic events are low-latitude coronal holes, the most long-living geoeffective phenomena on the Sun now are considered. Greater coronal hole usually exists 4-8 solar rotations, practically not changing the position. However its visible borders can move up to 20°/days, changing its sizes or shifting it as the whole. Geoeffective are coronal holes in an interval heliolatitudes N25 – S25, its extent ≥ 10° on heliolatitudes, the area ≥ 5000 м.v.h., and localized in the strengthened background magnetic fields. Influence on the Earth’s environment begins, when western the coronal holes border reaches heliolatitudes ~W40 (in ~3 days after solar central meridian passage of western coronal hole), ). Especially it is necessary to note role of coronal holes as amplifiers of the solar flare phenomena geoefficiency. Presence of coronal holes near to active regions where occurs solar flare event sharply raises their geoefficiency, and expands a range of their localization. The forecast of recurrent magnetic storms and solar electronic events is spent on the fact of coronal hole occurrence, to meeting requirements specified above, and passages of the central meridian of the Sun by them.

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA MODERN POSSIBILITY of the Earth’s environment disturbances forecast: At observations of a new significant emerging magnetic fluxes in AR: - Forecast PFER for h; - preliminary estimation of geoefficiency flare events (R, S, G) on localization and surrounding structures of AR; At observation flare events: On a x-ray importance - R; - On a radio emission, localization flare event and characteristics CME - S, G; RESTRICTIONS FOR THE FLARE FORECAST: Impossibility of the forecast of time and a importance of separate event during PRER; real difficulties of allocation of NMFE in complex, compact AR with areas Sp> 1500 m.v.h.; Difficulties of an estimation flare potential in AR close solar limbs localization for the forecast of the Earth’s environment disturbances: - Impossibility of early definition of an interplanetary magnetic field Bz- component and from here, uncertainty of an estimation of geomagnetic disturbances possible intensity.

Suzdal, 2007 THE SOLAR GEOEFFECTIVE PHENOMENA