Big Data, Space Weather and cognitive visualization Проблема больших объемов данных в космической погоде и когнитивная визуализация ("лучше один раз увидеть…!”)

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Presentation transcript:

Big Data, Space Weather and cognitive visualization Проблема больших объемов данных в космической погоде и когнитивная визуализация ("лучше один раз увидеть…!”)

Space Weather: what is it? OXFORD DICTIONARY: Natural processes in space that can affect the near-earth environment, satellites, and space travel, such as magnetospheric disturbances solar coronal events. Factors of influence: cosmic rays (radiation storms), solar wind storms (CME) Impacts: a) Satellites, orbital stations, interplanetary missions, b) Magnetosphere disturbance (storms) induced Faraday currents

Price of space weather knowledge for space technology 1.Price of space technology (include space stations) in 2013 is about 1000,000,000,000$ = $ Insurance claims: (800 – 1400)*10 6 yearly year – more then 400 communication satellites provide above 2*10 9 users by mobile communication + GPS As example – crash of SkyLab mission 25 m* 7 m with loss 600 millions $$)

Price of space weather induced lost 1.Underground impacts (disruption of long way continental electric grids and communication lines): Quebec 1989 March – 6*10 9 $ 2.Disorder railway communication in high latitudes 3.Space weather – Earth weather impacts (SW-El Niño – blocked anticyclones 2010 – hot summer 2010)

Solar Activity - Space Weather Driver Ω(r,θ,t)&V θ (t)&v turb (θ,t)=>H global (θ,t)&H turb (θ,t)=> =>Ω& V θ& v turb =>H global &H turb =>…

The aim of space weather research - forecasting Prediction of solar activity on 4 time scales: – Flares and solar CR: tens minutes-hours fluency: how much and when? – Sunspots: days energy resource and currents level (dF/dt) – Cycles: 9-14 years Global circulation and critical phase – Feeding of activities (Maunder, Schperer, …) – hundreds years: Phase transition

Sources of data 1.Solar observatory on the Earth surface (about 120 observatories in optical emission (cont. +lines images – 100) + radio patrol (15) + radio images (few); daily data flux about 10 Terabyte daily Space located solar observatories satellites in L1 point: (opt. and UV each hour-15minutes): SOHO, SDO, TRACE, FAST, HINODE,… - 1 terabyte daily Space plasma and field measuring by interplanetary stations: TWINS, WIND, VOYAGERS (2), … - 10 Gigabyte daily Near Earth Space (magnetosphere, ionosphere, high atmosphere) – CLUSTER(4), THEMIS, TIMED, GOES(14), … - 1 Gigabyte daily Application (geophysical, atmospheric, ground images (military and civil) – 10 Terbytedaily USED in practice: 1%-3% => Big Data Problem

Standard approach (compactification in 1000,000 times!) 1.Images => catalog of 10 key parameters (sunspots position, area, number, coronal holes, flares (forms, position, classes, dynamics) 2.Light curves (moments of events, dynamic parameter) => catalog YEARMONTH 1996 Ja n FebFeb M ar A pr MayMay Ju n Ju l AugAug SepSep O ct NovNov DecDec 1997 Ja n FebFeb M ar A pr MayMay Ju n Ju l AugAug SepSep O ct NovNov DecDec 1998 Ja n FebFeb M ar A pr MayMay Ju n Ju l AugAug SepSep O ct NovNov DecDec 1999 Ja n FebFeb M ar A pr MayMay Ju n Ju l AugAug SepSep O ct NovNov DecDec 2000 Ja n FebFeb M ar A pr MayMay Ju n Ju l AugAug SepSep O ct NovNov DecDec 2001 Ja n FebFeb M ar A pr MayMay Ju n Ju l AugAug SepSep O ct NovNov DecDec 2002 Ja n FebFeb M ar A pr MayMay Ju n Ju l AugAug SepSep O ct NovNov DecDec 2003 Ja n FebFeb M ar A pr MayMay Ju n Ju l AugAug SepSep O ct NovNov DecDec 2004 Ja n FebFeb M ar A pr MayMay Ju n Ju l AugAug SepSep O ct NovNov DecDec 2005 Ja n FebFeb M ar A pr MayMay Ju n Ju l AugAug SepSep O ct NovNov DecDec 2006 Ja n FebFeb M ar A pr MayMay Ju n Ju l AugAug SepSep O ct NovNov DecDec 2007 Ja n FebFeb M ar A pr MayMay Ju n Ju l AugAug SepSep O ct NovNov DecDec 2008 Ja n FebFeb M ar A pr MayMay Ju n Ju l AugAug SepSep O ct NovNov DecDec 2009 Ja n FebFeb M ar A pr MayMay Ju n Ju l AugAug SepSep O ct NovNov DecDec 2010 Ja n FebFeb M ar A pr MayMay Ju n Ju l AugAug SepSep O ct NovNov DecDec 2011 Ja n FebFeb M ar A pr MayMay Ju n Ju l AugAug SepSep O ct NovNov DecDec 2012 Ja n FebFeb M ar A pr MayMay Ju n Ju l AugAug SepSep O ct NovNov DecDec 2013 Ja n FebFeb M ar A pr MayMay Ju n Ju l AugAug SepSep O ct NovNov DecDec SOHO LASCO CME CATALOG

Attempts of cognitive automatically analysis (as researcher) 1. Automatically Space Weather modelling (in real time): Tamas Gombosi - NASA

Using A-Priori physics after flare Preceding time: 30 min- few hours

Giovanelli – father of magnetic reconnection in flare 1938 – student (Australia) – said “a” (ApJ, 1939,June, – Nature (2 pages)+MNRAS (1947,107, ) – “я” “MAGNETIC AND ELECTRIC PHENOMENA IN THE SUN’S ATMOSPHERE ASSOTIATED WITH SUNSPOTS” – flare energy release is DISCHARGE back