Stopping sooner or starting later? Fertility decline in Uzbekistan David Clifford Social Statistics, University of Southampton

Background: post-Soviet fertility change Context crucial to an understanding of fertility change (Mason 1997) Break-up of Soviet Union in 1991 Dramatic social, political and economic changes Countries of FSU - ‘rich material’ for examining the impact of these changes on fertility behaviour (Agadjanian 1999:426)

Background: ex-Soviet states of Central Asia ‘neglected’ in fertility transition literature ( Barbieri et al. 1996:69, Agadjanian 1999)

Uzbekistan’s fertility decline Total Fertility Rate: 5.7 mid -1970s 3.3 in in (Kuzibaeva 2001, Karimov et al. 1997, Kamilov et al. 2004) 4.07 in in 2003 (UNICEF TransMONEE)

Framework: understanding fertility decline Starting later? Higher MAFM, MAFB Successive cohorts show fertility ‘deficit’ from beginning of reproductive career Recent experience of C and S Europe (Frejka and Calot 2001) or: Stopping sooner? Little change in MAFM and MAFB Fertility ‘deficit’ from later stage in the life course Experience of Ukraine, Moldova (Perelli-Harris 2005; Bulgaru et al. 2000)

Measures calculated Period and Cohort Perspectives MAFM MAFB Cohort Birth Intervals Cumulated fertility (CEB) over life course

Data Uzbekistan Health Examination Survey, 2002 Part of Demographic and Health Survey project Nationally Representative 5588 women, aged 15-49

Period: change in MAFM and MAFB

Results Cohort: Age at First Marriage

Cohort: Age at First Birth

Cumulated fertility

Conclusions Clear ‘stopping sooner’ pattern. Why? Increased early fertility Earlier marriage Rational response to uncertainty? Trend for ‘conspicuous consumption’ increased importance of marriage Continued short first birth interval Decreased later fertility Economic hardship reduced fertility later in life course Context crucial

‘Stopping sooner’ vs. ‘starting later’ framework Merely different stages in fertility decline? Expected progression from ‘stopping sooner’ to ‘starting later’ mechanism of decline- UN 2001 BUT Russia (Kohler and Kohler 2002), Ukraine (Perelli- Harris 2005) – reached low TFRs without real tendency for postponement My perspective: no inevitability about the progression. Relegates spatial difference to temporal difference Context dependent

Agenda for future research Fertility change in Tajikistan poorest of former Soviet Republics in 1991 experienced most severe changes no academic work on fertility change thus far more explicit focus on period measures Challenges Quality of data Calculating exposure for period measures Especially difficult without exact dates Advice welcome!

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