Ron Plain D. Howard Doane Professor University of Missouri-Columbia Chicken & Competing Meats.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Prospects for U.S. Meat Exports The View From Washington Shayle Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Advertisements

Joseph W. Glauber Chief Economist, USDA USDA 89 th Agricultural Outlook Forum February 21,
Ron Plain D. Howard Doane Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia Hog & Pork Outlook Louisville,
Ron Plain, Ph.D. Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia Hog Market Forecast 2004 Iowa.
Red Meat and Poultry Outlook Curt Lacy Extension Economist-Livestock.
Ron Plain Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia Swine Industry Outlook Worse than 1998?
Outlook for the U.S. Meat Sector in 2011 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board U.S. Department of Agriculture Outlook 2011 Canberra,
Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2011 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington,
January 21, 2015 University of Missouri Extension.
Ron Plain Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia Pork Outlook Midwest/Great Plains & Western.
Current Economic Climate of the Cattle Business Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Oklahoma.
2009 Hog Market Outlook Ron Plain Professor of Agricultural Economics
Ron Plain Extension Economist University of Missouri-Columbia Stocker Cattle Outlook February 2009.
Hog Outlook Ron Plain April 22, 2015.
1 Food commodity prices: History & prospects Ron Trostle Economic Research Service U.S. Department of Agriculture ? USDA Outlook Forum February 20, 2014.
An Overview of Wisconsin and US Agricultural Economy Bruce L. Jones Director, Renk Agribusiness Institute August 2013.
Price Outlook, 2015 and Beyond 2015 GREAT LAKES PROFESSIONAL CATTLE FEEDING AND MARKETING SHORTCOURSE East Lansing, MI Bowling Green, OH Wyoming, ON Jim.
Maintaining U.S. Beef Industry Competitiveness with High-Priced Grain Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness And Livestock Marketing Specialist.
Ron Plain April 22, 2015 Cattle Outlook (title). Source: USDA/ERS 10 monthly records in 2014.
1 Livestock Outlook and Economics Brenda L. Boetel University of Wisconsin – River Falls August 2008.
FarmEcon LLC A source of information on global farming and food systems Thomas E. Elam, PhD President 2016: Outlook for Turkey and Layer Recovery and Prices:
Ron Plain D. Howard Doane Professor of Agricultural Economics University of Missouri-Columbia Hog & Pork Outlook Midwest.
Beef Cattle Situation and Outlook million tons.
April 22, 2015 University of Missouri Extension. Pat Guinan April 22, 2015.
Agricultural Economics Beef, Dairy, Equine, Poultry, Hogs, Sheep, and Goats Kenny Burdine and Lee Meyer UK Ag Economics.
Beef Cattle Situation and Outlook Dr. Curt Lacy and Dr. John McKissick Extension Livestock Economists.
Current Market Situation For Grains and Cattle! Rodney Jones OSU NW Area Extension Economist.
Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors in 2012 Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington,
October 14, 2014 University of Missouri Extension.
1 Cattle Outlook 2011 and Beyond Shane Ellis Extension Livestock Economist Iowa State University August 16, 2011.
2014 Cattle Market Situation and Outlook Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Oklahoma State.
Outlook for the U.S. Livestock and Poultry Sectors Presented By Shayle D. Shagam World Agricultural Outlook Board, USDA USDA Outlook Forum Washington,
1 Livestock Outlook Gary Brester MSU Department of Agricultural Economics and Economics Agriculture Outlook 2008: Farm Bill, Wind Energy & Climate Change.
Extension and Outreach/Department of Economics Ag Market Update Ohnward Financial Advisor Services Meeting Monticello, Iowa Dec. 15, 2015 Chad Hart Associate.
Presented by Gerald A. Bange Chairperson, World Agricultural Outlook Board United State Department of Agriculture
Beef Marketing Update Kenny Burdine UK Agricultural Economics Economics.
U.S. Beef Export Update & Beef Market Situation in U.S. Erin Daley Economist, USMEF Seoul, Korea June 23, 2009.
Cattle Market Update Derrell S. Peel
Agricultural Market Outlook July 17, 2014
Livestock and Grains Situation and Outlook January 2018
Lecture outline Characteristics of ag production that make agricultural marketing different from manufacturing. Nature of product and production Cycle.
Livestock and meat industry
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Crop & Livestock Outlook
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Crop and Livestock Market Outlook
Agricultural Economic Outlook
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Outlook Ackley State Bank Ag Outlook Iowa Falls, Iowa Dec. 17, 2015
Cattle Market Update Derrell S. Peel
Ag Market Outlook for 2012 Iowa Chapter of NAMA Meeting
Agricultural Marketing
Livestock & Crop Outlook
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Ag Economic Outlook Ohnward Bank & Trust Town Hall Meeting
Economics of Crop & Livestock Production
Ag Outlook Young Professionals in Agriculture Johnston, Iowa
2019 Cattle Market Update Derrell S. Peel
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Crop & Livestock Marketing & Risk Management
Market Outlook ISU Extension Swine In-Service Ames, Iowa Mar. 29, 2012
Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist
Market Situation & Outlook
Presentation transcript:

Ron Plain D. Howard Doane Professor University of Missouri-Columbia Chicken & Competing Meats

The darker the color, the more severe the drought

U.S. Average Corn Yield, Source: USDA/NASS Lowest yield per acre since 1995

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

Drought Impact Drought causes reduced crop production which causes higher feed prices which causes red ink for livestock & poultry which leads to herd/flock reduction which adds meat in the short run but eventually means less meat and higher meat prices which means better profits and herd expansion

Biology of Herd Reduction Cattle –Move calves from pasture to feedlots sooner –Sell cows and breeding heifers Pigs –Sell pigs sooner –Sell sows and breeding gilts Chickens –Sell fewer heavy weight birds

Biology of Animal Reproduction Cattle –9 months of gestation –18-24 months of growth Pigs –4 months of gestation –6 months of growth Chickens –3 weeks of incubation –6 weeks of growth

Feed Cost

U.S. Corn Acres Planted, : most since 1937 Source: USDA/NASS

U.S. Corn Production, Source: USDA/NASS Smallest corn harvest since 2006

U.S. Corn Exports, Source: USDA/NASS

Corn Milled for Ethanol Forecast % corn for ethanol: : 6% : 14% : 23% : 35% : 42% Source: USDA/NASS

US Feed & Residual Use of Corn, Source: USDA/NASS

September Corn Futures Daily Close, 2012 Source: CMEGroup

U.S. Corn Price, Source: USDA/NASS

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

U.S. Monthly Average Corn Price Thru Dec 2015 all corn futures contracts are above $5.85 per bushel

South America A large soybean harvest is expected –Brazil up 22% –Argentina up 34%

Meat Demand

Growth in Real GDP Source: U.S. Commerce Department

U.S. Civilian Employment, Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, household survey, seasonally adjusted & MU, /month In September 2012, U.S million jobs under trend

Gasoline Prices & Meat Demand, Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration Correlation = -0.37

Index of Retail Meat Demand Base Elasticity = Source: Ron Plain, MU

Boneless Retail Meat Prices as % of Bologna, Monthly, Source: USDA/ERS

Change in Retail Meat Demand Base Elasticity =

Seasonal Price Patterns

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

Seasonal Average Hog Price Source: USDA Prior Day Slaughter reports $/cwt

Broiler Situation

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Broiler slaughter is down 4.0%

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Broiler production is down 4.1%

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

Broiler Price & Production 2012 broiler production is expected to be down 1.2% from 2011 with wholesale prices that are 6.3% higher than in broiler production is expected to be down 1.1% from 2012 with wholesale prices that are 4.8% higher than in Source: USDA-OCE WASDE, September 2012

Plain’s Forecast % 79 cents/lb % 86 cents/lb % 90 cents/lb % 85 cents/lb Broiler Broiler Production Price

Turkey Situation

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Turkey production is up 1.8%

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS

Turkey Production 2012 turkey production is expected to be up 2.9% from 2011 with wholesale prices that are 5.4% higher than in turkey production is expected to be down 3.2% from 2012 with wholesale prices that are 0.9% lower than in Source: USDA-OCE WASDE, September 2012

Cattle Situation

2012: 90.8 million head, Down 2.1% Lowest inventory since 1952 Source: USDA/NASS

July 2012 Cattle Inventory percent of year earlier All Cattle & Calves 97.8 Beef Cows 97.1 Dairy Cows100.0 Beef Replace. Heifers100.0 Dairy Replace. Heifers 97.6 Other Heifers 97.4 Steers 500 lbs & up 98.6 Calves under 500 lbs 97.4

2012: 34.5 million head, Down 2.3% Source: USDA/NASS

2011: 26.2 billion pounds, down 0.4%

July 2012 Cattle Inventory percent of year earlier Steers 500 lbs & up98.6 Other heifers 97.4 Calves under 500 lbs97.4 Combined97.8 Combined 97.8% = 2.2% fewer cattle being kept for marketing which should mean the number of fed cattle marketed in coming months will be down 2.2%

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

2012 cow slaughter is down 4.6%

Beef Price & Production 2012 beef production is expected to be down 1.6% from 2011 with slaughter steer prices that are 5.5% higher than in beef production is expected to be down 4.3% from 2012 with slaughter steer prices that are 5.0% higher than in Source: USDA-OCE WASDE, September 2012

Plain’s Forecast %$114.73/cwt %$122/cwt %$132/cwt %$135/cwt Beef Steer Production Price

Pork Situation

Annual U.S. Pork Production,

Source: USDA/NASS

Hog Inventory Reports U.S. Sept Canada July

U.S. Pigs Per Litter by Quarter

Pork Price & Production 2012 pork production is expected to be up 2.0% from 2011 with slaughter hog prices that are 8.5% lower than in pork production is expected to be down 1.3% from 2012 with slaughter hog prices that are 6.6% higher than in Source: USDA-OCE WASDE, September 2012

Plain’s Forecast %$87.56/cwt %$82.00/cwt %$85.00/cwt %$87.00/cwt Pork Carcass Production Price

Meat Trade

U.S. Meat Exports,

Meat Imports/Exports as % of U.S. Production In 2011, the U.S. exported –10.6% of beef production –22.8% of pork production –18.8% of broiler production –12.1% of turkey production In 2011, U.S. imports equaled –7.8% of beef production –3.5% of pork production –0.3% of broiler production –0.4% of turkey production

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-FAS

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-FAS

Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-FAS

Meat Situation

Source: USDA/ERS 2013 per capita meat consumption lowest since 1990

Source: USDA/ERS

Forecast Change in Meat Production --Percent Change-- Type Beef - 1.6% - 4.3% Pork +2.0% - 1.3% Chicken - 1.2% - 1.1% Turkey +2.9% - 3.2% All Meats - 0.2% - 2.2% Source: USDA-OCE WASDE, September 2012

Any Questions?