SUB-NATIONAL FOREIGN- BORN POPULATION PROJECTIONS THE CASE OF ANDALUSIA Silvia Bermúdez, Juan A. Hernández & Joaquín Planelles Andalusian Statistical Office

Index  Andalusia in Context  Nationality versus Place of Birth  Demographic Phenomena  Main Results

Index  Andalusia in Context  Nationality versus Place of Birth  Demographic Phenomena  Main Results

Andalusia in Context 1. Andalusia is located in Europe

Andalusia in Context 1. Andalusia is located in Europe 2. It is a part of Spain

Andalusia in Context 1. Andalusia is located in Europe 2. It is a part of Spain 3. It is down south of Iberian Peninsula

Andalusia in Context 17 Regions Big within Spanish context: 1 st in terms of population. 8 million, 18% share 2 nd in terms of size, 17% share

Andalusia in Context 50 Provinces (8 in Andalusia) municipalities (770 in Andalusia)

Andalusia in Context Madrid and the Coast 2 out of 6 half-million cities

Andalusia in Context Madrid and the Coast 2 out of 6 half-million cities … And immigrants follow the very same pattern

Index  Andalusia in Context  Nationality versus Place of Birth  Demographic Phenomena  Main Results

Nationality vs Place of birth 1. Andalusian population projection have traditionally distinguished 3 variables…. AgeSexLocation Origin of individuals

Nationality vs Place of birth 2. The choice of the definition is mainly based on data availability & plausibility of identifying demographic clusters ProsCons As nationality changes, it may interact with renewable phenomena Offspring nationality Additional assumptions on future naturalizations Nationality data easily avialable

 Long term convergence?  Second generations  How many “origin” groups?  Different patterns for fertility, ¿mortality? & mobility converge on the long term  Not considered separately  5 groups based on the place of birth with unique population structures & demographic behaviours Further questions….we have assumed… Nationality vs Place of birth

1. Born in Spain

Nationality vs Place of birth 2. Born in Africa Male thing, labor ages

Nationality vs Place of birth 3. Born in Latin America Female thing, labor ages

Nationality vs Place of birth 4. Born in UE15 Retirement thing

Nationality vs Place of birth 5. Other Balanced, labor ages.

Index  Andalusia in Context  Nationality versus Place of Birth  Demographic Phenomena  Main Results

Demographic Phenomena 1. Changes in fertility patterns are similar to other European Regions Though changes were more drastic and they began later

Demographic Phenomena 1. Immigrant fertility is greater and it starts sooner

Demographic Phenomena 1. Immigrant fertility is greater and it starts sooner … But immigrant population is heterogeneous

Demographic Phenomena 1. Immigrant fertility is greater and it starts sooner … But immigrant population is heterogeneous

Demographic Phenomena 2. Mean life duration has experienced a dramatic change in Andalusia

Demographic Phenomena 2. Mean life duration has experienced a dramatic change in Andalusia … So we assumed those trends to continue in the future

Demographic Phenomena 2. It was impossible to record differential place of birth mortality patterns Impossibility to record differential mortality patterns Not clear results from abroad: “Salmon bias” Emigration selects healthy individuals Immigrant population are young Strong positive correlation income vs health status

Demographic Phenomena 3. Migration analysis and modeling issues Volatility Data Quality Complexity Most volatile phenomena Difficult to deal with when forecasting Migration data presents lower quality than other phenomena Difficult coverage of targeted population Sub- phenomena based on the flow direction & geographical scope Internal & External, In & out migrations

Demographic Phenomena 3. Migration sub- phenomena decomposition As many times as birth groups selected Inside Andalusia In & Out Other Spanish regions InOut Foreign countries InOut

Index  Andalusia in Context  Nationality versus Place of Birth  Demographic Phenomena  Main Results

Main Results 1. Population will continue growing in the coming years, due to its natural growth potential Nonetheless, population is likely to fall in the long run

Main Results 2. Despite expected increase in fertility, births are likely to fall

Main Results 2. Despite expected increase in fertility, births are likely to fall Despite expected reduction in mortality, casualties are likely increase

Main Results 3. Ageing. Baseline

Main Results 3. Ageing. Low growth

Main Results 3. Ageing. High growth

Main Results 3. Population is ageing

Main Results 3. Population is ageing … But should we use static indicators of ageing? 2010 Population over 80+ 4,0% Population over ,9% 2025 Population over 80+ 5,5% Population over ,8% 2050 Population over 80+ 9,8% Population over ,1% Dynamic indicators may be required to compare the so called “senior groups” in a context of continuous Improvement of Life Expectancy & Disability-free life expectancy rates

Main Results 4. Foreign- born population is likely to increase in the future.

Main Results 4. Foreign- born population is likely to increase in the future. … But in the long term, immigrant population will get older too.

Main Results 5. Data access.

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