CLIVAR SSG 14 Buenos Aires, Argentina Introduction and Welcome Introduction and Welcome

CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) CLIVAR is an interdisciplinary research effort within the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) focusing on the variability and predictability of the slowly varying components of the climate system. CLIVAR investigates the physical and dynamical processes in the climate system that occur on seasonal, interannual, decadal and centennial time-scales.

CLIVAR Mission CLIVAR Mission To observe, simulate and predict Earth’s climate system, with focus on ocean-atmosphere interactions, enabling better understanding of climate variability, predictability and change, to the benefit of society and the environment in which we live. To observe, simulate and predict Earth’s climate system, with focus on ocean-atmosphere interactions, enabling better understanding of climate variability, predictability and change, to the benefit of society and the environment in which we live. Science Applications

CLIVAR Goals and Objectives CLIVAR Goals and Objectives Understand the physical processes responsible for climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time-scales … Understand the physical processes responsible for climate variability and predictability on seasonal, interannual, decadal, and centennial time-scales … Extend the range and accuracy of seasonal to interannual climate prediction … Extend the range and accuracy of seasonal to interannual climate prediction … Extend the record of climate variability … Extend the record of climate variability … Understand, predict and detect the anthropogenic modification of the natural climate signal. Understand, predict and detect the anthropogenic modification of the natural climate signal.

CLIVAR SSG 14 Buenos Aires, Argentina Introduction and Welcome Introduction and Welcome Agenda Agenda Review of SSG 13 Review of SSG 13 Summary of JSC XXVII, Pune India Summary of JSC XXVII, Pune India Purpose of this meeting Purpose of this meeting

Agenda

CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA WEDNESDAY 19 APRIL AM.Chairs/leads*Speakers/ contributors 1Introduction Welcome, introductions, local arrangementsA Busalacchi/ T Palmer Introduction to CLIVAR SSG-14 including metrics for CLIVAR and strawman road map A Busalacchi co nt DiscussionA Busalacchi/ T Palmer All 2.WCRP & sponsor input Future directions for WCRP; JSC-27 recommendations for CLIVAR; JPS; WCRP funding A Busalacchi/ T Palmer A Henderson Sellers Coffee/tea IOC programme needs as a WCRP sponsorA Busalacchi/ T Palmer R Dargaville WMO & WGNE activities relevant to CLIVARA Busalacchi/ T Palmer P Silva Dias 3.Reports against CLIVAR science themes 3.1ENSO and other models of tropical variability Current status and science directions & needsA Busalacchi/ T Palmer M Reinecker How is CLIVAR adressing this theme? Round table contributions From chairs/reps of the Pacific & Atlantic Panels, AAMP & WGSIP and others M RieneckerPanels & Working Group chairs/reps Lunch

CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA WEDNESDAY 19 APRIL PM Chairs/leadsSpeakers/ contributors Discussion: Developing the road map: the ENSO/TV theme within CLIVAR A Timmerman*All Science lecture: The GEF project for the La Plata Basin A Busalacchi/ T Palmer V Barros & J Rucks Coffee/tea 3.2Monsoons Current status & science directions and needs A Busalacchi/ T Palmer B Wang Summary of outcomes of pan-WCRP Monsoon Modelling Workshop & JSC responses A Busalacchi/ T Palmer H Cattle Developments in GEWEX & GEWEX monsoon activities A Busalacchi/ T Palmer S Sorooshian part 1 How is CLIVAR addressing this theme? Reports from VACS + AMMA (30 mins), VAMOS, & AAMP & IOP (20 mins each) & round table contributions from other Panel & Working Group chairs/reps B WangPanel & Working Group chairs/reps 1745END OF DAY 1 Cocktail at 1900

CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA THURSDAY 20 APRIL AM Chairs/leads*Speakers/ contributors cont How is CLIVAR addressing this theme? Reports from VACS + AMMA (30 mins), VAMOS, & AAMP & IOP (20 mins each) & round table contributions from other Panel & Working Group chairs/reps B WangPanel & Working Group chairs/reps Discussion: Developing the Roadmap: The monsoon theme within CLIVAR and WCRP more widely D Waliser*All IGBP/WCRP linksA Busalacchi/ T Palmer C Nobre Coffee/tea 3.3Decadal variability & the thc Current status & science directions & needsA Busalacchi/ T Palmer J Marotzke How is CLIVAR addressing this theme? Round table contributions from Atlantic, Pacific, Indian and Southern ocean basin panels, WGCM & others J MarotzkePanel & Working Group chairs/reps Plans for a CLIVAR Workshop on Multi- decadal variability A Busalacchi/ T Palmer A Timmermann Discussion: Developing the Roadmap: The decadal variability & thc theme within CLIVAR W HazeleglerAll Lunch

CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA THURSDAY 20 APRIL PM Chairs/leadsSpeakers/ contributors 3.4Anthropogenic climate change Current status and science directions and needs A Busalacchi/ T Palmer T Tokioka for B McAveney part 1 How is CLIVAR addressing this theme? Reports from WGCM including AR4 runs (30 mins), ETCCD & CLIVAR/PAGES (15 mins each). Round table contributions from other Panel & Working Group chairs/reps T TokiokaPanel & Working Group Chairs/reps Coffee/tea part 2 How is CLIVAR addressing this theme? Reports from WGCM including AR4 runs (30 mins), ETCCD & CLIVAR/PAGES (15 mins each). Round table contributions from other Panel & Working Group chairs/reps T TokiokaPanel & Working Group Chairs/reps Discussion: Developing the Roadmap: The ACC theme within CLIVAR T Palmer*All CLIVAR outreach – summary reviewA Busalacchi/T Palmer H Cullen 1720END OF DAY 2, Tango Dinner 2000

CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA FRIDAY 21 APRIL AM Chairs/leads*Speakers/ contributors 4.GLOBAL modelling activities and regional/global modelling panel links Current status of coupled modelling and science needs and how WGCM is adressing them A Busalacchi / T Palmer G Meehl Current status of ocean model development and science needs and how WGOMD is addressing these A Busalacchi/ T Palmer S Griffies Current status of seasonal prediction and science needs and how WGSIP/TFSP is addressing these A Busalacchi/ T Palmer B Kirtman Coffee/tea Discussion (lead): Developing the roadmap: modelling activities within CLIVAR, including global/regional linkages, links with GEWEX etc P Silva Dias*All 5.The ocean’s role in climate Current status of the global ocean observing system, including PIRATA review and CLIVAR’s role A Busalacchi/ T Palmer E Harrison Report on GSOP activities including current status of reanalysis activities, science directions and needs and CLIVAR data management A Busalacchi/ T Palmer D Stammer Discussion: CLIVAR’s ocean observational needs, ocean reanalysis and CLIVAR data management D Legler*All Lunch

CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA FRIDAY 21 APRIL PM Chairs/leads*Speakers/ contributors Basin Panel observing system and synthesis issues and science issues not covered previously. Reports from Atlantic (including TACE and ACP) (30 mins), Pacific and Southern Ocean Basin Panels (20 mins each), TIP (10 mins); TACE & ACP discussion. R WellerPanel & Working Group chairs/reps Coffee/tea Science lecture: Regional ocean science activities A Busalacchi/ T Palmer A Piola Developments in IGBP IMBERA Busalacchi/ T Palmer Developing the Roadmap: the role of the oceans in climate. How do we best address CLIVAR’s ocean observational and synthesis needs and links to wider activities; how do we best respond to IOC’s needs? Scope of an SSG Workshop on the ‘Role of the Oceans in CLIMATE R Weller *All END OF DAY 3

CLIVAR SSG-14 AGENDA SATURDAY 22 APRIL AM Chairs/leadsSpeakers/ contributors 6.Role of the ICPO: programme visibility and outreach (including the web pages, publications etc) ICPO report; recap of outreach review & discussion (item 6.1) A Busalacchi/ T Palmer H Cattle / 6.2 DiscussionA Busalacchi/ T Palmer All 7.National activities Summary of Netherlands’ reportA Busalacchi/ T Palmer Wilco Hazeleger Briefing on US CLIVAR reorganisationA Busalacchi/ T Palmer D Legler Presentation on MedCLIVARA Busalacchi/ T Palmer P Lionello Revisit of Roadmap.plans for the coming yearA Busalacchi/ T Palmer All Coffee/tea Review of action items; revisit of issues as necessaryA Busalacchi/ T Palmer All Panel and Working Group membershipA Busalacchi/ T Palmer Panel & Working Group chairs/reps Date and place of next meetingA Busalacchi/ T Palmer All Close A Busalacchi/ T Palmer END OF SSG-14

Review of SSG 13

650+ Attendees - the largest WCRP Conference ever! 56 Countries 650+ Posters 35 Oral presentations 9 Discussants 4 Press briefings –17 panelists, 5 moderators –Several stories went to print… 80+ students, 16 poster awards 14 Major sponsors Conference Statistics

CLIVAR Assessment Organised by: –CLIVAR streams (GOALS, DecCen, ACC) referenced to the Science & Implemenation Plans and ToRs of Panels & WGs –Unifying streams of “Data” & “Modelling” –Overall programme structure & the ICPO

CLIVAR - Principal Research Areas

CLIVAR Assessment Organised by: –CLIVAR streams (GOALS, DecCen, ACC) referenced to the Science & Implemenation Plans and ToRs of Panels & WGs –Unifying streams of “Data” & “Modelling” –Overall programme structure & the ICPO Team of 6 assessors and SSG liaisons Inputs –Panel & Working Group responses to questionnaire –CLIVAR web pages & documents –Reviewer/Panel & WG interactions –CLIVAR Conference Written & oral reports to CLIVAR SSG-13 Subsequent analysis of outcomes

Key outcomes of CLIVAR to date Creation of a sustained demand for global ocean and atmospheric climate observations, in situ & remotely-sensed Creation of a sustained demand for global ocean and atmospheric climate observations, in situ & remotely-sensed St Raphael Conference (Oceanobs’99) and definition of the approach to global ocean observations, e.g., St Raphael Conference (Oceanobs’99) and definition of the approach to global ocean observations, e.g., –Extension of buoy arrays into the Atlantic Ocean –Developing Indian Ocean climate observing system –New focus on ocean climate re-analysis –Global ARGO deployment Stimulated climate model development, e.g., CPT Stimulated climate model development, e.g., CPT Routine operational seasonal forecasts, forecast system intercomparisons and development of ensemble prediction methods Routine operational seasonal forecasts, forecast system intercomparisons and development of ensemble prediction methods Experimental decadal prediction Experimental decadal prediction Global change model scenarios underpinning IPCC Global change model scenarios underpinning IPCC Focus on American monsoon systems and processes (VAMOS NAME & MESA) Focus on American monsoon systems and processes (VAMOS NAME & MESA)

CLIVAR - global view

Key issues of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment: Science Foci Regional analysis of global model outputs and feedback Global synthesis & observation links Strengthen CLIVAR activity in ACC Links between process studies & model improvement Cross CLIVAR effort on climate indices Ocean observing strategy including hydrography & carbon links Ocean reanalysis activity & related data management issues Pan WCRP monsoon activity (with GEWEX) Applications of CLIVAR science

Key issues of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment: Summary Response On an annual basis CLIVAR progress will be assessed against four major global themes: ENSO, Monsoons, THC/Decadal and ACC. Each year a topical workshop will be held for one of the four themes. ACC representation to be increased on SSG Global perspective/framework to be provided by GSOP, WGSIP, WGCM, WGOMD, and CCD Global to regional perspective provided by Monsoon Panels for VAMOS, VACS, and AAMP and Ocean Basin Panels for Atlantic, Pacific, Indian, and Southern Oceans

Key outcomes of the CLIVAR Conference and Assessment: Management Foci Continued programme assessment Annual workshops against the 4 science foci in turn (ENSO, ACC, Monsoons, Decadal/THC) Overall CLIVAR structure CLIVAR’s global regional panel interactions CLIVAR visibility and networking Overall CLIVAR data and information management Web site development New structure for the ICPO

Progress Since SSG 13 GSOP (unto its own, as predecessor to WOAP) GSOP (unto its own, as predecessor to WOAP) Basin panels metric input to GSOP Basin panels metric input to GSOP Climate Process Team (CPT) concept Climate Process Team (CPT) concept USCLIVAR/WCRP analyses of AR4 USCLIVAR/WCRP analyses of AR4 Joint CLIVAR-GEWEX Monsoon meeting on behalf of JSC Joint CLIVAR-GEWEX Monsoon meeting on behalf of JSC New web site New web site Renewal of ICPO NERC Grant Renewal of ICPO NERC Grant

Summary of JSC XXVIII

Summary of JSC XXVII COPES COPES X

Summary of JSC XXVII Task Forces ~ 2 years Task Forces ~ 2 years –Sea Level TF, June 2006 meeting –TFSP  CLIVAR/WGSIP post 2007 meeting ENSO definition ENSO definition POC for CLIVAR-GEWEX Monsoon Coordination POC for CLIVAR-GEWEX Monsoon Coordination CLIVAR VACS East African Workshop CLIVAR VACS East African Workshop USCLIVR/WGCM AR4 Analysis Workshop USCLIVR/WGCM AR4 Analysis Workshop WCRP-IGBP Joint Session, SPARC and IGAC to develop Climate and Chemistry initiative WCRP-IGBP Joint Session, SPARC and IGAC to develop Climate and Chemistry initiative CLIVAR asked to review GEWEX MAHASRI and CEOP II CLIVAR asked to review GEWEX MAHASRI and CEOP II WGCM encouraged to consider decadal predictability WGCM encouraged to consider decadal predictability

Summary of JSC XXVII All projects “requested” to submit program metrics All projects “requested” to submit program metrics

Performance metrics for CLIVAR  New resources enabled by leveraging off of CLIVAR efforts, (e.g. $15M GEF funding of LPB, ESF MedCLIVAR, Climate Process Teams, AR4 analyses)  Improvements in: 1.the spectral character (i.e. spectral power, frequency) and 2.predictability of ISO, seasonal, interannual, and decadal variability in coupled models  Number of global ocean observation deployments and transition of process study and research observations to operational status (e.g.TAO)  Reduction of uncertainty in climate models, bias reduction, and the number of new parameterizations incorporated into operational models (e.g. CPT on marine stratus, VOCALS)  Metric tracking capacity building within and incorporation of developing nations into CLIVAR activities (e.g. efforts within VAMOS, VACS, AAMP)  Global and regional data products enabled by CLIVAR (e.g., global ocean data renalyses, African Climate Atlas)

Summary of JSC XXVII All projects “requested” to submit program metrics All projects “requested” to submit program metrics CLIVAR metrics adopted by essentially all the other projects CLIVAR metrics adopted by essentially all the other projects WCRP Road Map WCRP Road Map –Project by Project –JSC and WCRP as a whole

Summary of JSC XXVII Where does CLIVAR fit into this state space? 1.Current State. How does CLIVAR currently “populate” this space 2.Future Physical Climate System. How and where does CLIVAR intend to “grow” physical climate science so that we are seen to identify, encourage and facilitate the best research in the world? 3.Future Seamless Prediction Goal. How does CLIVAR plan to move our current climate science towards our stated goal of seamless climate prediction? 4.Future Earth System Contribution Target. How does CLIVAR plan to move our current climate science toward the desired aim of contributing to Earth System projection and interpretation? 5.Benefits Delivery. How and to whom are CLIVAR research benefits delivered?

Purpose of this meeting Somewhat abbreviated SSG given SHAMS Somewhat abbreviated SSG given SHAMS Sponsor/Context setting WCRP, IOC, WMO, IGBP Sponsor/Context setting WCRP, IOC, WMO, IGBP New approach to SSG meeting (still some kinks, input welcome) New approach to SSG meeting (still some kinks, input welcome) Focus on ENSO/TV, Monsoons, Decadal/THC, ACC, Role of Oceans, Global Modeling Focus on ENSO/TV, Monsoons, Decadal/THC, ACC, Role of Oceans, Global Modeling In contrast to long series of possibly disconnected panel reports In contrast to long series of possibly disconnected panel reports Organized into a series of mini-assessments (SSG engagement is crucial) Organized into a series of mini-assessments (SSG engagement is crucial) Development of CLIVAR Roadmap Development of CLIVAR Roadmap

Template for reporting for CLIVAR SSG-14 1.Panel or Working Group: 2.Contributions to CLIVAR’s 4 major themes:  2.1ENSO and other modes of tropical variability:  2.2Monsoons:  2.3Decadal variability and the thermohaline circulation:  2.4Anthropogenic climate change:  3.Summary of contribution to annual thematic workshop(s)  4.Contributions to the additional theme of the ocean’s role in climate (where not covered under the 4 themes)  5.Highlights of contributions to wider areas of climate science, including modelling, observational and synthesis studies:

6.New activities being planned:  6.1Modelling activities, including activities related to regional assessment of global model outputs:  6.2Synthesis activities:  6.3Coordinated field programmes and other observational activities:  6.4Workshops etc:  6.5Links to applications:  6.6Other: 7.Cross Panel and Working Group Links: 8.Cross WCRP/COPES links 9.Data management activities: 10.Review of appropriateness of ToRs 11.Issues for the SSG:

CLIVAR - global view

Purpose of this meeting Theme Lead Overview: State of science, current status, science directions, needs Theme Lead Overview: State of science, current status, science directions, needs Roundtable: How is CLIVAR addressing this theme. Panel contributions to crosscut theme. Roundtable: How is CLIVAR addressing this theme. Panel contributions to crosscut theme. Theme Assessor: Developing the road map, path ahead. Synthesis. Gap analysis, redundancies. What will we do by 2007, 2010, 2013? Where will we be at these milestones? (Note also JSC matrix.) Theme Assessor: Developing the road map, path ahead. Synthesis. Gap analysis, redundancies. What will we do by 2007, 2010, 2013? Where will we be at these milestones? (Note also JSC matrix.) Report back on Saturday Report back on Saturday

Purpose of this meeting ENSO and Tropical Variability Theme Lead Overview: Michele Rienecker ENSO and Tropical Variability Theme Lead Overview: Michele Rienecker Roundtable: Pacific, Atlantic, AAMP, WGSIP, etc. Roundtable: Pacific, Atlantic, AAMP, WGSIP, etc. Theme Assessor: Axel Timmermann Theme Assessor: Axel Timmermann

IOZDM Atlantic Nino I,II Meridional mode Meridional mode ENSO monsoo n Synthesis

ENSO Meridional mode Pacific Atlantic NINO Meridional Mode Atlantic Indian Monsoon IOZDM Indian monopole Synthesis Which interactions need to be resolved further? What data do we need to understand these links? What numerical experiments ought to be done to elucidate the mechanisms?

Purpose of this meeting Monsoon Theme Lead Overview: Bin Wang Monsoon Theme Lead Overview: Bin Wang Roundtable: VAMOS (NAME, MESA,VOCAL, LPB/PLATIN), VACS (AMMA), AAMP, IOP, GEWEX Roundtable: VAMOS (NAME, MESA,VOCAL, LPB/PLATIN), VACS (AMMA), AAMP, IOP, GEWEX Theme Assessor: Duane Walliser Theme Assessor: Duane Walliser

Purpose of this meeting Decadal Variability and THC Theme Lead Overview: Jochum Marotzke Decadal Variability and THC Theme Lead Overview: Jochum Marotzke Roundtable: Atlantic, Pacific, Southern, WGCM, IOP, etc. Roundtable: Atlantic, Pacific, Southern, WGCM, IOP, etc. Theme Assessor: Wilco Hazeleger Theme Assessor: Wilco Hazeleger

Purpose of this meeting ACC Theme Lead Overview: Tatsushi Tokioka for Bryant McAveney ACC Theme Lead Overview: Tatsushi Tokioka for Bryant McAveney Roundtable: WGCM, ETCCD, PAGES Roundtable: WGCM, ETCCD, PAGES Theme Assessor: Jerry Meehl Theme Assessor: Jerry Meehl

Purpose of this meeting Global Modelling Theme Lead Overview: Jerry Meehl Global Modelling Theme Lead Overview: Jerry Meehl Roundtable: WGCM, WGOMD, WGSIP Roundtable: WGCM, WGOMD, WGSIP Theme Assessor: Pedro Silva Dias Theme Assessor: Pedro Silva Dias

Purpose of this meeting Ocean’s Role in Climate Theme Lead Overview: Ed Harrison Ocean’s Role in Climate Theme Lead Overview: Ed Harrison Roundtable: GSOP, Atlantic, Pacific, Southern, IOP Roundtable: GSOP, Atlantic, Pacific, Southern, IOP Theme Assessor: Bob Weller Theme Assessor: Bob Weller

Thanks!