Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) Environmental Context for CoML Some cautions and a quick picture of elements of the system Edward Harrison, Chair,

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Presentation transcript:

Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) Environmental Context for CoML Some cautions and a quick picture of elements of the system Edward Harrison, Chair, climate component of GOOS planning

Historical Ocean Sampling The global ocean has been under sampled in the past, physically and biologically Available evidence shows much decadal variability with complex sub-basin scale structure Short-term trends may mislead Global average uncertainties hard to estimate

Temp Data Distributions since Caution! Blue colors mean fewer than 20% of months had any observations! 300m 500m

Running 20yr Temp Trends at 300m 55-75, , , Red – warming Blue – cooling Caution! 95% of regions change sign!

90% Significant Temp Trends m, , , 1000 Caution: Little of the ocean has reliable trend! Opportunity: Match biological analyses to regions with well-established trends

Moorings and Surface Drifters January 2007 (~1300) Many will begin to report multiple times/day in 2007

Argo profiling floats January 2007 (~2800)

Concluding Questions Can CoML focus some of its studies for 2010 on parts of the ocean with best observations for physical and environmental variables? Can CoML plan activities for CoML II ( ) that benefit from likely evolution of physical and environmental observing plans? Opportunity: 2008 SCOR conference on Ocean in a High CO2 World 6-8 October 2008 (talk with Ed Urban)