UCSB Economic Forecast Project The City of Oxnard Economic Outlook Bill Watkins September 15, 2004

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Outline Oxnard Baby Boomers Building Oxnard Forecast

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Oxnard How is it doing? Compared to …

UCSB Economic Forecast Project How is Oxnard doing?

UCSB Economic Forecast Project So Many Influences International Politics United States Los Angeles Other Ventura County communities Santa Barbara County

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Population Comparison Index (1991 = 100) Oxnard Ventura County

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Unemployment Rate Ventura County 8.9%9.0% 7.8% 7.5% 7.1% 6.6% 5.6% 4.8% 4.5% 4.6% 5.4% 5.3% Los Angeles County’s Is 6.8%

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Total Employment (jobs) Oxnard Metro Area 38,276 45,530 50,572 49,003 54,204 55,071 57,

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Employment Comparison Index (1991 = 100) Oxnard Metro Area Ventura County

UCSB Economic Forecast Project 1-Year Employment Growth by Industry Oxnard Metro Area Agriculture Mining Construction Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods Trans., Comm. & Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Finance, Ins. & Real Estate Services jobs

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Employment Distribution (jobs) Oxnard Metro Area , ,823 3,034 2,959 2,840 2,653 10,192 2,961 17,280 Agriculture Mining Construction Durable Manufacturing Non-Durable Manufacturing Trans., Comm., & Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Finance, Ins.& Real Estate Other Services Other Services include: Repair-Maintenance Laundry Religion Civic Professional …….

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Salary Comparison ($ per worker) Oxnard Metro Area ,270 34,291 38,703 58,171 33,415 39,174 39,552 22,017 50,026 37,029 Agriculture Mining Construction Durable Manufacturing Non-Durable Manufacturing Trans., Comm., & Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Finance, Ins.& Real Estate Other Services

UCSB Economic Forecast Project “ Let’s talk about agriculture for a minute.” Bill Says:

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Retail Sales 1-year Growth Distribution City of Oxnard Apparel Stores Building Materials Automobiles Eating and Drinking Food Stores Service Stations General Merchandise Household Products Other Retail percent

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Hotel / Motel Room Sales Oxnard City $0 $1 $2 $3 $4 $5 $6 $7 $8 $9 1990:11992:11994:11996:11998:12000:12002:12004:1 millions

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Oxnard and other Ventura County cities

UCSB Economic Forecast Project 2004 Hispanic Proportion of Population Cities in Ventura County 17.0% 69.4% 31.0% 17.7% 70.2% 44.2% 75.7% 18.4% 14.7% 27.0% Camarillo Fillmore Moorpark Ojai Oxnard Port Hueneme Santa Paula Simi Valley Thousand Oaks Ventura City

UCSB Economic Forecast Project 2003 Population Growth Cities in Ventura County 1.9% 1.6% -0.7% 4.1% 0.6% 1.5% 1.4% 0.4% 2.1% 1.5% Cama- rillo Fill- more Port Hueneme Moor- park OjaiOxnardSimi Valley Santa Paula Thousand Oaks Ventura City

UCSB Economic Forecast Project 2004 Median Age Cities in Ventura County CamarilloFillmoreMoorparkOjaiOxnardPort Hueneme Santa Paula Simi ValleyThousand Oaks Ventura City

UCSB Economic Forecast Project 2003 Nominal Median Home Prices Cities in Ventura County $407,545 $299,083 $268,231 $411,854 $442,500 $345,833 $369,921 $297,292 $477,186 $388,088 Cama- rillo Fill- more Port Hueneme Moor- park OjaiOxnardSimi Valley Santa Paula Thousand Oaks Ventura City

UCSB Economic Forecast Project 2004 Median Household Income Cities in Ventura County $69,394 $52,539 $84,653 $49,089 $52,744 $44,729 $45,976 $79,155 $84,053 $58,114 CamarilloFillmoreMoorparkOjaiOxnardPort Hueneme Santa Paula Simi ValleyThousand Oaks Ventura City

UCSB Economic Forecast Project 2004 Owner-Occupied Housing Cities in Ventura County 73.2% 63.1% 81.7% 58.3% 57.1% 48.0% 57.0% 77.0% 75.0% 58.3% CamarilloFillmoreMoorparkOjaiOxnardPort Hueneme Santa Paula Simi ValleyThousand Oaks Ventura City

UCSB Economic Forecast Project 2003 Real Gross Regional Product Metro Regions in Ventura County $4,764.2 $6,605.8 $4,605.9 $788.1 $6,261.4 $10,656.4 Cama- rillo OxnardSimi Valley Santa Paula Ventura City Thousand Oaks millions

UCSB Economic Forecast Project 2003 Real GRP per Worker Metro Regions in Ventura County PaulaCity $134,605 $118,108 $127,830 $101,042 $113,850 $172,418 CamarilloOxnardSimiSantaVenturaThousand Oaks

UCSB Economic Forecast Project 2003 Real Retail Sales Cities in Ventura County $511 $64 $48 $87 $63 $1,430 $842 $104 $1,708 $1,259 Cama- rillo Fill- more Port Hueneme Moor- park OjaiOxnardSimi Valley Santa Paula Thousand Oaks Ventura City millions

UCSB Economic Forecast Project 2003 Real Retail Sales Per Capita Cities in Ventura County $8.4 $4.4 $2.2 $2.5 $7.9 $7.2 $3.6 $13.8 $12.1 Cama- rillo Fill- more Port Hueneme Moor- park OjaiOxnardSimi Valley Santa Paula Thousand Oaks Ventura City thousands

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Oxnard is Changing Agriculture Military Industry Commuters Demographics

UCSB Economic Forecast Project An Introduction to Baby Boomers

UCSB Economic Forecast Project “What a drag it is getting old.” Mick Says:

UCSB Economic Forecast Project “For the rest of history, there are unlikely ever again to be more toddlers than grey heads.” The Economist Says:

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Baby Boomers are starting to retire are going to inherit $3 to $5 trillion like coastal California are used to getting what they want will get what they want

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Interesting Facts Longer life does not imply more years of ill health. The onset of old age is related to years remaining, not age. Early gains in life expectancy were a result of childhood issues. Recent gains have impacted the years after retirement. In 2003, over half of all Harley-Davidson buyers were over 45.

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Just the Numbers, Ma’am In 1963 there were 11 centenarians. In 2003 there were 2050 centenarians. By 2050 expect over a million centenarians. The first person to live to 150 years of age is probably already born.

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Things Baby Boomers Buy Sports cars and Harleys Travel and cruises Exercise machines and electronic stuff Beauty aids and cosmetic surgery Viagra and hormone-replacement pills Hip and knee replacements

UCSB Economic Forecast Project “Better to burn out than to fade away.” Neil Young Says:

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Building Oxnard

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Nominal Median Home Price City of Oxnard $167,000 $148,000 $139,300 $149,000 $165,800 $198,700 $233,900 $277,100 $345,800 $412,

UCSB Economic Forecast Project “ Look for Oxnard real estate prices to continue their upward trend.” Bill Says:

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Housing Affordability Ventura County 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Housing Density City of Oxnard people per household

UCSB Economic Forecast Project SINGLE-FAMILY HOMES MULTIPLE-FAMILY HOMES Total New Residential Building Permits City of Oxnard

UCSB Economic Forecast Project New Non-Res Bldg. Permit Value by Type City of Oxnard $ millions Industrial Retail Office

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Total Building Permit Value & Growth City of Oxnard line: $ millions

UCSB Economic Forecast Project “ What are we going to do about farm-worker housing? ” Bill Says:

UCSB Economic Forecast Project The Forecast –Outside Influences –Macro Trends –Short Term

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Outside Influences

UCSB Economic Forecast Project The United States Economy

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Bill Says: “ Unless something goes seriously wrong, the national economy looks pretty good.”

UCSB Economic Forecast Project How Bad is the California Economy? Maybe not as bad as you think.

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Job Growth Rates Percent Change From Prior Year

UCSB Economic Forecast Project California Issues Budget Energy Housing Costs Workers Compensation Insurance Health Insurance Tort Law High costs Onerous Regulation

UCSB Economic Forecast Project What about the new Governor?

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Clint Eastwood Says: “A man has got to know his limitations.”

UCSB Economic Forecast Project “ California is unlikely to see per-capita economic growth rates comparable to that of the United States.” Bill Says:

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Trends

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Remember the Baby Boomers

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Display (Retail) Advertising Tri-Counties :012002:042002:072002:102003:012003:042003:072003:102004:012004:042004:07 Jan = 100

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Lines of Help Wanted Ads Tri-Counties :012002:042002:072002:102003:012003:042003:072003:102004:012004:042004:07 Jan = 100

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Trends Los Angeles County Santa Barbara County Other Ventura County communities

UCSB Economic Forecast Project The Short Run

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Ventura County Output Share of Tri-Counties 54.8% 55.9% 55.4% 56.5% 59.0% 60.0% 61.2% 61.4% 61.7%

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Real Gross Regional Product Growth Oxnard Metro Area 6.2% 2.6% 11.8% 6.7% -0.9% 13.2% 10.2% 13.2% 6.2% 8.1% 6.6% 3.8% 4.0% 6.0%

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Real GRP per Worker Growth Oxnard Metro Area 3.0% -1.6% -2.0% -1.9% -3.0% 23.7% 4.1% 7.8% 0.8% 8.7% 4.3% 2.2% 1.8% 3.5%

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Oxnard Metro Area Output Share of Ventura County 14.5% 16.3% 16.6% 17.0% 15.9% 16.7% 16.6% 16.9%

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Total Employment (jobs) Oxnard Metro Area 38,276 45,530 50,572 49,003 54,204 55,071 57,053 59,

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Total Employment Growth Oxnard Metro Area 3.1% 4.2% 14.1% 8.7% 2.1% -8.5% 5.9% 5.0% 5.3% -0.5% 2.2% 1.6% 2.0% 2.4%

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Nominal Average Salary Oxnard Metro Area $20,855 $21,487 $20,847 $27,269 $29,422 $33,033 $34,393 $36,

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Real Average Salary Growth Oxnard Metro Area -0.8% -1.7% 0.8% -2.1% -4.1% 19.5% 6.1% 4.0% -1.9% 7.3% -1.5% -0.7% 0.1% -0.3% 2.3%

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Nominal Median Home Price City of Oxnard $167,000 $148,000 $139,300 $149,000 $165,800 $198,700 $233,900 $277,100 $345,800 $412,600 $464,000 $506,

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Real Median Home Price Growth City of Oxnard -5.7% -6.5% -8.8% -5.7% -3.3% 0.2% 3.5% 8.7% 16.0% 13.9% 15.3% 21.6% 16.8% 9.9% 6.6%

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Real Retail Sales per Capita Growth City of Oxnard -5.2% -4.2% 12.0% 1.8% 1.5% 2.4% 8.4% -7.3% 2.8% 2.7% 0.4% 2.3% 2.5%

UCSB Economic Forecast Project Bill Says: “ Oxnard is still creating itself. It will be a very different place in 10 years.”

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