Land Use Change in Amazonia: Institutional analysis and modeling at multiple temporal and spatial scales Gilberto Câmara, Ana Aguiar, Roberto Araújo, Patrícia Pinho, Luciano Dutra, Corina Freitas, Sidnei Sant’Anna, Leila Fonseca, Isabel Escada, Silvana Amaral, Pedro Andrade-Neto (Earth System Science Centre, INPE) FAPESP Climate Change Program Workshop 2011

source: Global Land Project Science Plan (IGBP)

Nature, 29 July 2010

Brazil is the world’s current largest experiment on land change and its effects: will it also happen elsewhere? Today’s questions about Brazil could be tomorrow’s questions for other countries Brazil is the world’s current largest experiment on land change and its effects: will it also happen elsewhere? Today’s questions about Brazil could be tomorrow’s questions for other countries

Where will large-scale land change take place? source: The Economist

Forests and food production: potential conflicts

Impact of land change in Brazil’s emissions

“By 2020, Brazil will reduce deforestation by 80% relative to 2005.” (pres. Lula in Copenhagen COP-15)

Market impact of deforestation reduction in Brazil EU-15 reduction % of 1990 levels Avoided def Brazil From 2005 to 2020, avoided deforestation by Brazil would be 2/3 of the total proposed EU-15 cuts 7,7 Gt CO2eq 4,9 Gt CO2eq

What caused the reduction of deforestation in Amazonia? Markets? Credit crunch? Coercion? Institutional arrangments?

Policing actions: illegal wood seizure 50% of operations in 2% of the area

Markets have a positive rôle

The Brazilian Amazon has different institutional arrangements that influence the spatial and temporal patterns of deforestation. Working hypothesis

Tragedy of the Commons? Everybody ’ s property is nobody ’ s property (Hardin)

Is the tragedy of the commons inevitable? Experiments show that cooperation emerges if virtuous interactions exist source: Novak, May and Sigmund (Scientific American, 1995)

Common pool resources (Elinor Ostrom)

The ultimate common pool resource

Governing the commons: institutional arrangments [Ostrom, Science, 2005]

Elinor Ostrom on governing the commons “Neither the state nor the market is uniformly successful in enabling individuals to sustain long-term, productive use of natural resource systems.”

What are institutional arrangements? Araújo and Aguiar, forthcoming Agreements between private and public organizations about rules of use of common pool resources.

Institutional analysis in Amazonia Identify different agents and try to model their actions Field work Land change patterns Land change models Urban networks

PDS (Projeto de Desenvolvimento Sustentável) PAC (Projeto de Assentamento Coletivo) PA (Projeto de Assentamento) PAE (Proj. Assentamento Agro-extrativista) Terras Indígenas UC Proteção Integral Amazonia is a mosaic of land units

Current situation in Amazonia Araújo e Aguiar (forthcoming) Tension between different ways of access to market and natural resources, land tenure regimes (private and public/collective) and political forces.

PA 279 Transamazônica Baixo Amazonas Pará State Brazilian Amazonia Deforestation Forest Non-forest vegeration Clouds/no data INPE/PRODES 2005: BR 163

Lower Amazonas and Transamazônica PDS ESPERANCA INCRA: 207 Land Settlements SFB: National forests concession and common land management

Mapping trajectories of change Mapas de Padrões Érika Saito 2006 Trajetórias

Land use change model Beef and milk market chain model Small farmers Medium and large farmers Small farmers Medium and large farmers Landscape metrics model Pasture degradation model Several workshops to define model rules and variables Landscape model: different rules for two main types of agents

Landscape model: different rules of behavior at different partitions which also change in time FRENTE MEIO RETAGUARDA Forest Not Forest Deforest River FRONT MIDDLE BACK SÃO FÉLIX DO XINGU

Modeling results 97 to 2006 Observed 97 to 2006