Global Changes and Challenges and their Implications for Development Policy Simon Maxwell 23 September 2013

An argument in four steps 1.The glass is half full not half empty 2.As a result, the pendulum is swinging from the national to the global 3.And international development faces new challenges: a.What to do about MICs? b.Global collective action and the challenge of multilateralism c.The competences of development agencies and their place in Government d.Making the case and securing pubic support 4.Post-2015: leading global change

The glass is half full, not half empty

Time to be optimistic? Under – 5 mortality

The pendulum is swinging from the national to the global

The drivers of development Well-being IncomeHealthEducationInclusionParticipation Favourable national policy environment Favourable international policy environment Public expenditure Regulatory environment ABCEFGHIJKLM GPGs or ‘things we need to fix’

The left-hand side: a national perspective Focused on aid for poverty reduction and MDGs Driven by the search for results (often 1.0 not 2.0) Highlighting openness and transparency Favouring vertical initiatives (e.g. GAVI) Prioritising growth (incl agriculture, energy) Seeking new ways of working with the private sector Paying more attention to resilience Rediscovering governance and conditionality Preferring bilateral over multilateral Working closely with Gates and other philanthropists Bringing all this together under the umbrella of aid effectiveness (most recently at Busan)

The right-hand side: things we need to fix globally Climate change Trade rules Energy security Health pandemics Knowledge Conflict Financial stability Food security Fisheries Migration Inclusive globalisation Natural resource nexus

Global Public Goods

An example: climate change

The impact of climate change on coffe in Uganda

The new challenges of international development

Development cooperation in the future LessMore Poverty Global public goods Poor countries Poor and middle income countries Aid Policy Aid departments International development departments Single ministries Whole of Government Bilateral Multilateral Government-to-Government PPPs and civil society partnerships Aid effectiveness Entitlement and Partnership

What to do about MICs?

LICs and MICs LIC6140 LMIC56 UMIC3748 HIC5469 World Source: Glennie, J, 2011, ‘The Role of Aid to MICs’, ODI WP 331, June

Global Collective Action and the Challenge of Multilateralism

Delivering global solutions: 1.Keep the core group small 2.Build trust 3.Use the same group for multiple decisions 4.Use social pressure to deliver network closure 5.Choose the right issues 6.Deploy positive incentives 7.Deploy negative incentives 8.Build the institutions for repeated interaction

Sweden: Participation in international organisations

The competences of development agencies and their place in Government

Development Cooperation is being re-engineered

The competences of development agencies? (a) Spring(b) Spigot(c) Spoon(d) Spanner

Making the case and securing public support

Post 2015: Leading Change

Universal Linking development and environment