Climate Change and Food Security background issues and an international research response Professor Diana Liverman Chair, GECAFS Environmental Change Institute University of Oxford

Rising concern about food security… Increases in prices of 20%- 80% since 2000 –Demand (including biofuels) –Energy costs (input, transport) –Climate impacts (e.g. drought in Australia) Food reserves declining World Food programme call for extra $500m for food aid to poor

Climate change impacts on agriculture and food systems (from IPCC 4AR Chapter 5) IPCC 2007 concludes –climates and ecosystems are already changing as a result of human activities –Projected warming of 2 to 4.5 degrees –Significant impacts on global agriculture and food prices by 2050

Millions of people are hungry

Many economies rely on agriculture

Food security…... exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. (World Food Summit 1996)... is underpinned by Food Systems and is affected by global environmental change

Food Security FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS Affordability Allocation Preference Nutritional Value Social Value Food Safety FOOD AVAILABILITY Production Distribution Exchange Environmental Welfare Ecosystem stocks & flows Ecosystem services Access to natural capital Social Welfare Income Employment Wealth Social capital Political capital Human capital Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to: Food System ACTIVITIES Producing food: natural resources, inputs, technology, … Processing & packaging food: raw materials, standards, storage requirement, … Distributing & retailing food: transport, marketing, advertising, … Consuming food: acquisition, preparation, customs, … Ericksen, P. Conceptualizing Food Systems for GEC Research (GEC: 2007) “Food System” concept integrates Food System Activities and Outcomes

More than crop yields…. Understanding the impacts of climate change on food security means looking at how climate change affects the whole food system (production, processing, distribution, consumption) and at more than just amount of production (quality, cultural value, access) The response to climate change (mitigation) can also affect food security because the food system is a source of greenhouse gases and because some solutions compete with food

Food systems are changing… Ericksen, 2007 (adapted from Maxwell and Slater 2004) Food system feature“traditional” food systems“modern” food systems Principal employment in food sector In food productionIn food processing, packaging and retail Supply chainShort, localLong with many food miles and nodes Typical food consumedBasic staplesProcessed food with a brand name; more animal products Purchased food bought from Small, local shop or marketLarge supermarket chain Nutritional concernUnder-nutritionChronic dietary diseases, obesity Main source of national food shocks Poor rains; production shocksInternational price and trade problems Main source of household food shocks Poor rains; production shocksIncome shocks leading to food poverty Major environmental concerns Soil degradation, land clearingNutrient loading, water demand, GHG emissions

Global Environmental Change and Food Systems (GECAFS) An ESSP international research project in collaboration with

To determine strategies to cope with the impacts of Global Environmental Change (GEC) on food systems and to assess the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of adaptive responses aimed at improving food security. GECAFS Goal

How will GEC affect the vulnerability of food systems in different regions? How might food systems be adapted to cope with GEC so as to enhance food security? What would be the consequences of adaptation options for environmental and socioeconomic conditions? GECAFS addresses three “Fundamental Questions” all of interest to: Policy Science Society at large

I.Conceptual & methodological research on generic topics Developing Interdisciplinary Research Approaches to advance science and address policy II. Policy-relevant research at regional-level on impacts, adaptation and feedbacks Indo-Gangetic Plain Caribbean Southern Africa Europe [ESF/COST] Food Systems Concepts Vulnerability Concepts Scenario Methods Decision Support Concepts based on science and policy issues identified in regional projects based on improved conceptual understanding and methods

GECAFS Regional Research objectives Improved assessment of the spatial and temporal vulnerability of food systems to GEC at regional level Improved decision support to address stakeholder needs by helping identify potential policy and technical interventions for adaptation options to reduce vulnerability to GEC analysing potential environmental and socioeconomic feedbacks from different adaptation options  Improved food security and natural resource management from enhanced awareness and decision making

Regional consultations with stakeholders Field-based assessment of food systems and vulnerability to global environmental change Decision support for adaptation planning Collaboration with international stakeholders GECAFS Regional Research methods

GECAFS Regional Science Plans Policy-relevant research at regional-level Focus on vulnerability/impacts, adaptation and feedbacks Based on improved conceptual understanding and methods Innovative research partnerships

GECAFS regional activities and 23 Commonwealth countries Indo-Gangetic Plain Bangladesh, India, Pakistan (3) Caribbean Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, St Kitts and Nevis, St Lucia, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Trinidad and Tobago (12) Southern Africa Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, South Africa, Swaziland, Zambia (8) + active collaboration with Australia, Canada, New Zealand, UK

Climate Change and Food Security in Southern Africa Adopting a multi-level research approach Climate Change and Food Security in the IGP Analysing food system vulnerability Climate Change and Food Security in the Caribbean Using scenario analyses for decision support GECAFS Regional Research examples