FROM NATURAL HAZARDS TO DISASTERS AND DISASTER RESILIENCE A 3-Part Story That Can Take 40 Years or More Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction,

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FROM NATURAL HAZARDS TO DISASTERS AND DISASTER RESILIENCE A 3-Part Story That Can Take 40 Years or More Walter Hays, Global Alliance for Disaster Reduction, University of North Carolina, USA

BASIC PHYSICS and EARTH SCIENCE of NATURAL HAZARDS TOWARDS A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF THE PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS THAT CAUSE NATURAL HAZARDS AROUND THE GLOBE PART I

HAZARDSHAZARDS HAZARDS: NOT AN OPTION FOR CITIES EXPOSURE AND VULNERABILITY DISASTERDISASTER DISASTER RESILIENCE CITYCITY

NATURAL HAZARDS ARE NOT AN OPTION FOR CITIES (PART I) DISASTERS, THE “DEFAULT OPTION” (PART II) AND TO BECOME DISASTER RESILIENT, OR NOT; THAT IS THE QUESTION: (PART III)

PLANET EARTH IS AFFECTED BY A CONTINUUM OF NATURAL HAZARDS EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMIS SEVERE WINDSTORMS VOLCANOES FLOODS WILDFIRES

A DISASTER OCCURS WHEN THE CITY IS … UN—PREPARED UN—PROTECTED UN—ABLE TO RESPOND EFFECTIVELY UN (NON)--RESILIENT

BASIC EARTH SCIENCE PLATE TECTONICS FAULTS WATER CYCLE SOLAR HEAT EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMIS VOLCANOES FLOODS SEVERE WINDSTORMS WILDFIRES

BASIC PHYSICS STRESS (Compression, Tension, Shear) DEFORMATION (Faults, Folds) HEAT AND PRESSURE FLOW WAVES (P-, S-, Love-, Rayleigh Waves; Tsunamis) FLOWS, BLASTS, AND PLUMES

PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS OCCUR ON MANY SCALES Microscopic Site-specific to local Subsurface to atmospheric Regional Continental OCEANIC Global

EARTHQUAKES: PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS ENCOMPASS THE LITHOSPHERE, CORE, MANTLE, ASTHENOSPHERE, (HYDROSPHERE) AND BIOSPHERE

HEAT FLOWS FROM THE OUTER CORE

TECTONIC PLATES 200 MILLION YEARS AFTER PANGEA

NORTH AMERICA AND PACIFIC (JUAN DE FUCA) PLATES CONVERGING

NORTH AMERICA AND PACIFIC PLATES SLIDING BY EACH OTHER

San Andreas: A Plate Boundary

WESTERN NORTH AMERICA’S NATURAL HAZARDS FLOODS EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMIS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS WILDFIRES LANDSLIDES FLOODS EARTHQUAKES TSUNAMIS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS WILDFIRES LANDSLIDES

EASTERN NORTH AMERICA’S NATURAL HAZARDS FLOODS HURRICANES EARTHQUAKES TORNADOES ICE STORMS LANDSLIDES FLOODS HURRICANES EARTHQUAKES TORNADOES ICE STORMS LANDSLIDES

THE CARIBBEAN PLATE AND HAITI EARTHQUAKE

PACIFIC RIM: SUBDUCTION OF CONVERGING PLATES

MOST EARTHQUAKES OCCUR IN PACIFIC RIM CONVERGENCE ZONE

INDIA-EURASIA: COLLISION OF CONVERGING PLATES

PLATE CONVERGENCE: BANDA ACHE, INDONESIA AREA

THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN EARTHQUAKE

SUBSIDENCE EARTHQUAKE TSUNAMI GROUND SHAKING FAULT RUPTURE FOUNDATION FAILURE SOIL AMPLIFICATION LIQUEFACTION LANDSLIDESAFTERSHOCKSSEICHE DAMAGE/LOSS DAMAGE/ LOSS DAMAGE/LOSS

INADEQUATE RESISTANCE TO HORIZONTAL GROUND SHAKING EARTHQUAKES SOIL AMPLIFICATION PERMANENT DISPLACEMENT (SOIL FAILURE AND SURFACE FAULTING ) IRREGULARITIES IN MASS, STRENGTH, AND STIFFNESS FLOODING FROM TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP AND SEICHE POOR DETAILING OF STRUCTURALSYSTEM FAILURE OF NON-STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER CASE HISTORIES

TSUNAMIS: PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS ENCOMPASS THE LITHOSPHERE, CORE, MANTLE, ASTHENOSPHERE, HYDROSPHERE, AND BIOSPHERE

PHYSICS OF A TSUNAMI PHYSICS OF A TSUNAMI

THE POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS OF AN TSUNAMI

TSUNAMI HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) HIGH-VELOCITY, LONG-PERIOD WATER WAVES WAVE RUNUP FLOODING WAVE RETREAT SHORELINE EROSION

TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP

HIGH VELOCITY IMPACT OF INCOMING WAVES TSUNAMIS INLAND DISTANCE OF WAVE RUNUP VERTICAL HEIGHT OF WAVE RUNUP INADEQUATE RESISTANCE OF BUILDINGS FLOODING NO WARNING, OR INADEQUATE WARNING PROXIMITY TO SOURCE OF TSUNAMI CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER CASE HISTORIES

SEVERE WINDSTORMS HURRICANES/TYPHOONS: PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS OF THE SUN, HYDROSPHERE, ATMOSPHERE, LITHOSPHERE, AND BIOSPHERE

HURRICANE PHYSICS

PHYSICS OF A TYPHOON

HAZARDS OF A SEVERE WINDSTORM (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) WIND FIELD (COUNTER CLOCKWISE OR CLOCKWISE DIRECTION; CAT 1 (55 mph) TO CAT 5 (155 mph or greater) STORM SURGE HEAVY PRECIPITATION LANDSLIDES (MUDFLOWS) COSTAL EROSION TORNADOES (SOMETIMES)

WIND AND WATER PENETRATE BUILDING ENVELOPE SEVERE WINDSTORMS SEVERE WINDSTORMS UPLIFT OF ROOF SYSTEM FLYING DEBRIS PENETRATES WINDOWS STORM SURGE AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION IRREGULARITIES IN ELEVATION AND PLAN POOR WORKMANSHIP FAILURE OF NON- STRUCTURAL ELEMENTS CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER CASE HISTORIES

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION SEVERE WINDSTORMS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK SEVERE WINDSTORM RISK REDUCTION PREPAREDNESS PROTECTION EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY EDUCATIONAL SURGES POLICY OPTIONS Wind profile Storm Hazards: -Wind pressure -Surge -Rain -Flood -Waves -Salt water -Missiles -TornadoesOceanOcean Gradient Wind

VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS: PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS ENCOMPASS THE LITHOSPHERE, CORE, MANTLE, ATMOSPHERE, AND BIOSPHERE

PHYSICS OF AN EXPLOSIVE VOLCANO

ACTIVE VOLCANOES

HAZARDS OF A VOLCANIC ERUPTION

VOLCANO HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) VERTICAL PLUME ASH AND TEPHRA LATERAL BLAST PYROCLASTIC FLOWS LAhARS

PROXIMITY TO LATERAL BLAST VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS IN PATH OF PYROCLASTIC FLOWS IN PATH OF FLYING DEBRIS (TEPHRA) IN PATH OF VOLCANIC ASH (AVIATION) IN PATH OF LAVA AND PYROCLASTIC FLOWS IN PATH OF LAHARS IGNORING WARNING TO EVACUATE CAUSES OF DAMAGE/DISASTER CASE HISTORIES

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY DATA BASES AND INFORMATION HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS HAZARD MAPS INVENTORY VULNERABILITY LOCATION RISK ASSESSMENT RISK ACCEPTABLE RISK UNACCEPTABLE RISK DISASTER RISK REDUCTION PREVENTION-MITIGATION PREPAREDNESS EMERGENCY RESPONSE RECOVERY ADAPTATION POLICY OPTIONS

FLOODS: PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS ENCOMPASS THE ATMOSPHERE, LITHOSPHERE, HYDROSPHERE, AND BIOSPHERE

FLOOD HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS ) TOO MUCH WATER DISCHARGED WITHIN THE DRAINAGE SYSTEM TO BE ACCOMMODATED NORMALLY IN THE REGIONAL WATER CYCLE EROSION SCOUR MUDFLOWS

LOSS OF FUNCTION OF STRUCTURES IN FLOODPLAIN FLOODS INUNDATION INTERACTION WITH HAZARDOUS MATERIALS STRUCTURAL/CONTENTS DAMAGE FROM WATER WATER BORNE DISEASES (HEALTH PROBLEMS) EROSION AND MUDFLOWS CONTAMINATION OF GROUND WATER CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND DISASTER CASE HISTORIES

WILDFIRES: PHYSICAL INTERACTIONS ENCOMPASS THE ATMOSPHERE, LITHOSPHERE, AND BIOSPHERE

SCIENCE OF WILDFIRES

WILDFIRES are conflagrations caused by lightning discharges (or acts of man) in wilderness areas close enough to an urban interface that they threaten people, property, infrastructure, and business enterprise.

WILDFIRE HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) FIRE HOT GASES AND SMOKE HOT SPOTS BURNED OUT SLOPES (with increased susceptibility to insect infestation, erosion, and landslides)

WILDFIRE HAZARDS (AKA POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS) SUNDOWNER WINDS SANTA ANNA WINDS LOCAL CHANGES IN AIR QUALITY LOCAL CHANGES IN WEATHER

LIGHTNING STRIKES WILDFIRES MANMADE FIRES PROXIMITY OF URBAN AREA TO THE WILDLAND FIRE WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION (DAY/NIGHT) DRYNESS HIGH TEMPERATURES LOCAL FUEL SUPPLY CAUSES OF DAMAGE AND DISASTER DISASTER LABORATORIES

DISASTERS ARE THE CITY’S “DEFAULT OPTION” (SEE PART II) TO BECOME DISASTER RESILIENT, OR NOT; THAT IS STILL THE QUESTION: (PART III)