HIMAP HINDU KUSH HIMALAYAS MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT PROGRAM (HIMAP): ACTION TO SUSTAIN A GLOBAL ASSET Presentation for the 5 th TPE Workshop Rajeev Goyal, ICIMOD Berlin 9 December 2014

10 Major River Systems 4 Global Biodiversity Hotspots 330 Important Bird Areas 1.2 Billion Humans

Background and Context for Why HIMAP was Created  Filling the IPCC data gap identified for the HKH Region  Mitigating the breach: science community, policy making bodies, and traditional communities  Defining how the HKH is a global asset (just as AMAP helped define the Arctic as a global asset)  Need for ‘scenarios thinking’ and modeling of complex bio-physical, social, and economic drivers of change in the region  Identifying tipping points and communicating them to policy makers  Urgency: Precipitous decline of bio-cultural diversity, glacial biomass changes and shifts in hydrological cycle, and human vulnerability  Need to simplify the policy messages and create multi-institutional consensus and momentum around a few core objectives  Costs of inaction will be high

Drawing lessons from the Arctic Experience: More than 2 decades of monitoring and assessment 1. Moving beyond a single publication format to frame an ongoing and cumulative process and culture of high quality monitoring 2. Interweaving of monitoring and assessment functions 3. Live-Feed data on glaciers, biodiversity, urbanization and other aspects 4. Production should be in a range of formats including videos, slide shows, summaries, one- pagers, graphs, data portals, and also the assessment. This will help reach different target audiences 5. Employ Photo Contests and Calls for Content and Testimonials to acquire original material and build awareness within traditional communities 6. Identify the knowledge gaps and frame new research directions 7. Follow AMAP 4-part documents structure: Education Summaries, overview reports, scientific background reports and technical reports 8. Identifying Hot Spots to Provide TEK perspective 9. Lead Authors of the full science report should be profiled on website and featured in a video 10. The “Integration Team” should be comprised of Lead Authors. 11. Working Groups comprised of the lead author teams 12. Taking a positive approach, Identifying the opportunities for action 13. Assessment is not an inventory but rather an evaluation of threats and opportunities

AMAP: Multiple Products

Key Differences between AMAP and HIMAP  Population: 4 million versus 1.3 billion in HKH watershed  Arctic focuses on the polar caps-oceans nexus, while the HKH focus is the glacier-watershed and upstream/downstream linkages  AMAP focused on oil & gas exploration, pollutant cycling, POPs, and bio- magnification, whereas critical issues in the HKH may be different  Urbanization, Mobility, Migration and Growth in HKH is happening at a frenzied pitch  Drivers of change and consequent future scenarios might be more complex in HKH due to greater human population and range of ecosystem types

Understanding HIMAP’s Operational Structure  Steering Committee (5)  Integration Team (18-20)  Working Groups (5)  Chapter Lead Authors (17)  Chapter Scientists (2 per chapter, 34 total)  Country Report Teams (1 per country)  Rigorous Review Process (Independent)

HIMAP Working Groups WG 1. Defining the Vision for the HKH WG 2. State of Knowledge WG 3. Drivers of Change and Future Scenarios WG 4. Sustainable Development WG 5. Policy Recommendations Integration & Synthesis Team:  Comprised of all the Lead Authors  Overseen by SC  Collectively will draft Chapter 0 and 16, which will also be stand- alone documents

Working Groups 1 and 2 Working Group 1 - Vision Chapter 0: Summary for Decision-makers Chapter 1: Introduction: Setting the Scene Working Group 2 – State of Knowledge Chapter 2: State of Knowledge and Trends

Working Group 3 (Drivers) Chapter 3: Drivers of Change: Local, Regional, and Global  Climate Change  Disasters, Droughts and Floods  Invasive alien species (IAS)  Energy (hydropower, fossil fuels, wind, solar, biomass)  Air Pollution  Economic Growth and Industrialization  Trade  Migration/Remittances  Built fabric/Construction Techniques  Urbanization  Technology, Mobility, and Communications  Land Pollution and Solid Waste  Land Use and Land Cover Changes, Deforestation  Water Pollution

Working Group 3 (Future Scenarios) Chapter 4: Future Scenarios  “Green/Eco- Scenario” (Environmentally Friendly, organic farming, inclusive development)  “Economic Growth and Industrial Scenario” (Less attention to Environment more large hydropower, more monocultures, more timber industries)  “Business as Usual Scenario” (following present trends and being influenced by global economy)  “Sustainable Mountain Development Scenario” Impacts of Each Scenario on:  Economic & Social Equitability  Ecosystems  Biodiversity  Securities: Food, Water, Energy, & Livelihood

Working Group 3 (Climate Change) Chapter 5: “Climate Change in the HKH”  Physical Sciences Modeling of Climate Change linked to the 4 Scenarios (linked to the IPCC scenarios)  Impacts and Vulnerability  Glaciers

Working Groups 4 and 5 (Sustainable Development and Policy Recommendations) Working Group 4: Sustainable Mountain Development Chapter 6: Sustaining the HKH ecosystem services Chapter 7: Meeting Future energy needs (Energy Security) Chapter 8: Water Availability and Use (Water Security) Chapter 9: Achieving Food Security Chapter 10: Managing Trans-boundary Air Pollution and Black Carbon Chapter 11: Equity: Poverty, vulnerability and livelihood Chapter 12: Adaptation Strategies Chapter 13: Gender and Inclusive Development (indigenous groups, ethnic minorities) Chapter 14: Migration Chapter 15: Country Specific Implications Working Group 5: Policy Recommendations C ONCLUSION /C HAPTER 16: R ECOMMENDATIONS FOR P OLICY M AKERS

What has been achieved so far?  Working Groups & Chapter Structure defined by the HIMAP Steering Committee  Meeting in Kathmandu focused on the Food-Water-Energy Nexus where key messages were defined and presented  Identification of potential authors, lead authors, and reviewers  Write-shop on Drivers of Change to take place in Bhutan on February 4-6 in conjunction with the Himalayan Circle-Third Pole Environment organized  Workshop focused on indigenous knowledge and perspective of the business community being organized in Bhutan, July 2015 in conjunction with Himalayan Consensus  Process/TOR for Lead coordinating author selection defined

Key issues identified during the Kathmandu Food-Water- Energy Nexus Workshop  Scale issue needs to be adequately addressed by the assessment: Local/micro catchment, district/watershed, national/sub-basin, regional/basin  Must assess current and future water availability and demand scenarios under changing climate and socio-economic development  Adaptation and resilience measures will be critical in terms of identifying solutions and recommendations  Availability, affordability, quality/reliability and sustainability are basic tenants of food/water/energy security in mountain areas  The energy demands in mountain regions are rising  Upstream and downstream perspective  Energy demand growing rapidly (3-5% annually) due to rapid urbanization, rising income and changing lifestyles and the supply-demand gaps are expected to further widen  Mountain biodiversity at risk  Policies, institutions, technologies must sensitize to mountain contexts

Next Steps and How to Become a Part of HIMAP  Writers: lead authors and contributing authors  Hosting: Academic institutions, conferences and other venues to host/integrate HIMAP exercise  Students: literature review and research  Contact us if interested to become a HIMAP author or to learn more about how you can help

THANK YOU!! HIMAP: Action to Sustain a Global Asset