CIERA Community Initiative for Emissions Research and Applications 1 Claire Granier Université Pierre et Marie Curie/LATMOS, Paris, France and NOAA/ESRL & Univ. Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, Colorado Gregory J. Frost, NOAA/ESRL & Univ. Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, Colorado Jean-François Lamarque, NCAR/ACD & CGD, Boulder, Colorado Stefan Falke, Northrop Grumman & Washington Univ., St. Louis, Missouri Terry Keating, EPA/OAR, Washington, DC Paulette Middleton, Panorama Pathways, Boulder, Colorado Gabrielle Pétron, NOAA/ESRL & Univ. Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, Colorado Steven J. Smith, DOE/PNNL & Univ. Maryland/JGCRI, College Park, Maryland Megan L. Melamed, AAAS Fellow, EPA/NCER, Washington, D.C. Species considered: CO2, CH4, CO, NOx, SO2, NMVOCs, particles

Why We Care About Emissions Quantitative emission information is needed for: Accounting for the past & observing and calculating the present Predicting and projecting the future Taking action for mitigation, adaptation, etc. Defining win-win climate/air quality strategies Making choices: Which “knob” to turn? Is one better than the other? Do we have emissions data accurate enough for our modeling/analysis work? Actions and decisions about the atmosphere focus on emissions Slide courtesy of A.R. Ravishankara 2

Emissions for IPCC AR5 simulations: anchor point in 2000 (2005 for CO2) Historical emissions: harmonization for 10 sectors and 40 regions Best estimate for 2000: combination of global and regional datasets Emissions available every 10 years at 0.5-degree 3

Global surface emissions post-2000:  Emissions of most compounds not available after 2000  Use of the future scenarios developed for IPCC AR5  RCPs = Representative Concentrations Pathways)  Continuity in 2000 (handshake)  Linear interpolation between 2000 and 2005/2010 of emissions provided by the RCPs From: IIASA RCP database

Are any of these emissions accurate?  A systematic evaluation of surface emissions has started within GEIA (Global Emissions Inventory Activity), a sub- project of AIMES  Open to all people willing to propose new data / analyze results  Start with the period  Only publicly available gridded inventories considered so far  Focus on: CO, NOx, SO2 and BC  Assess whether one of the scenarios is closer than the others to regional emissions available after 2000, assuming regional emissions are more accurate

6 Example: Evaluation of emissions Analysis of the differences and improvements of the emissions inventories requires the knowledge of data currently not available

7 Example: Evaluation of emissions Analysis of the differences and improvements of the emissions inventories requires the knowledge of data currently not available

Examples of comparison of anthropogenic emissions SO2 China (Tg/yr)

Examples of comparison of anthropogenic emissions SO2 China (Tg/yr)

But, are regional emissions really more accurate  Based on reported data by countries/states/… CO emissions (Tg/yr) CO traffic emissions from reported data CO emissions inferred from observations From Parrish, Atmos. Env. 2006

Drivers for the Development of CIERA 11 What is the problem? Current emission inventories are incompatible with and inadequate for the needs of the atmospheric research community’s multi-scale modeling and analysis of observations. Why now? The work performed by the community is much more reliant on complex modeling and observational systems. Emissions data are a key input. Who might be interested? All scientists using models and analyzing observations. All groups working on generation of emission datasets and associate impact of control, abatement, and regulation.

Air Quality and Climate: The Way They Were Different scales, regulations, and research have led to different approaches Air QualityClimate 12 RegulationResearch Inventories Observations Models RegulationResearch RegulationResearch RegulationResearch Inventories Observations Models RegulationResearch RegulationResearch Time Scales Hours - Weeks RegionalLocal Spatial Scales Time Scales Months - Centuries Global Spatial Scales Regional

Air Quality and Climate: How They Are Evolving As these issues increasingly overlap, new approaches are needed Air Quality and Climate 13 RegulationResearch Inventories Observations Models RegulationResearch RegulationResearch Time Scales Hours - Centuries RegionalLocal Spatial Scales Global

Reconciling approaches Common sources Bridging scales Feedbacks Reconciling approaches Common sources Bridging scales Feedbacks Emissions for Air Quality & Climate: Connections 14 Cooper et al., 2010 Ginoux, 2009 M. Meinshausen, 2010

CIERA Community Initiative for Emissions Research and Applications Evaluations and Impacts Assessments and Communications 15 Inventories and Emission Models Inventories and Emission Models Observations Atmospheric Models CIERA Components and Activities Web infrastructure Development & analysis of data sets Outreach to different communities User support CIERA Components and Activities Web infrastructure Development & analysis of data sets Outreach to different communities User support

CIERA Vision: Coordinated Emission Activities Optimized emissions information from enhanced evaluations, impact studies, assessments, and communication 16 Assessments and consensus emissions data Evaluations of emission data Turnbull et al., 2010 Impacts of emissions on AQ & climate Shindell et al., 2008 Communication forum for emissions research

Observations CIERA Vision: Distributed Emission Data System Data Tools Inventories, Emission Models Web-based, open, multi-scale, consistent air quality & climate emissions system 17 Earth System Models Kim et al., 2006Levy et al., 2008 Ginoux, 2009

CIERA Components and Activities 18 Web infrastructure Build database system Tools for analysis and visualization Development/ analysis of data sets Open-source emission system User-friendly emission model interfaces Data evaluation and feedback Documentation and metadata Outreach to community Workshops and schools Assessments User support Questions from users Cross-platform development Training

Emissions Databases 19 CIERA will benefit from the emissions portal developed by GEIA: and of the new database with interactive graphics/tools:

CIERA Action Items Build an international partnership Form working groups Encourage application of CIERA to emissions research Strengthen feedbacks between research & regulatory communities Building the CIERA database Connect emission portals Incorporate data sets Incorporate and develop tools Developing the CIERA vision and scope Write scientific papers Show synergies and progress from CIERA effort Establish CIERA as a sustainable program 20

CIERA Contacts Greg Frost Stefan Falke Claire Granier Terry Keating Jean-François Lamarque Megan Melamed Paulette Middleton Gabrielle Pétron Steve Smith CIERA Contacts Greg Frost Stefan Falke Claire Granier Terry Keating Jean-François Lamarque Megan Melamed Paulette Middleton Gabrielle Pétron Steve Smith Coming Soon… 21 CIERA is a multi-agency US initiative, which will become eventually an international community activity