Black-box calibration for complex-system simulation by Alexander I. J. Forrester Philosophical Transactions A Volume 368(1924): August 13, 2010 ©2010 by The Royal Society

(a) Contours of the true Branin function compared with (b) a Kriging prediction based on 20 sample points (dots) (from Forrester & Keane (2008)). Alexander I. J. Forrester Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2010;368: ©2010 by The Royal Society

Kriging prediction of L/D based on data from 12 wind-tunnel tests. Alexander I. J. Forrester Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2010;368: ©2010 by The Royal Society

Kriging prediction of L/D based on data from 120 VGK simulations (figure 2 caption explains plot). Alexander I. J. Forrester Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2010;368: ©2010 by The Royal Society

Co-Kriging prediction of L/D based on data from 120 VGK simulations and 12 wind-tunnel tests (figure 2 caption explains the plot). Alexander I. J. Forrester Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2010;368: ©2010 by The Royal Society

Rear-wing design variables. Alexander I. J. Forrester Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2010;368: ©2010 by The Royal Society

(a) Hill-climb race-car rear-wing geometry and (b) half-car geometry (which is used for the ‘full- car’ simulations). Alexander I. J. Forrester Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2010;368: ©2010 by The Royal Society

Simulated flow over a baseline rear wing in isolation. Alexander I. J. Forrester Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2010;368: ©2010 by The Royal Society

Simulated flow over a baseline rear wing behind the full car. Alexander I. J. Forrester Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2010;368: ©2010 by The Royal Society

Kriging prediction of L/D based on 20 full-car simulations. Alexander I. J. Forrester Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2010;368: ©2010 by The Royal Society

Kriging prediction of L/D based on 120 rear-wing simulations (figure 9 caption explains the plot). Alexander I. J. Forrester Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2010;368: ©2010 by The Royal Society

Co-Kriging prediction of L/D based on 10 full-car and 120 rear-wing simulations (figure 9 caption explains the plot). Alexander I. J. Forrester Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2010;368: ©2010 by The Royal Society

L/D values for the 10 full-car simulations and five infill points and their rear-wing-only simulation counterparts (it is the full-car values we are minimizing). Alexander I. J. Forrester Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2010;368: ©2010 by The Royal Society

Alexander I. J. Forrester Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 2010;368: ©2010 by The Royal Society