How Andrew Bartholomew was found: oceanography in action. A status report on the BlueLink Regional Analysis David Griffin

10 Dec 2004 Bluelink Regional Analysis: credits RA staff: Madeleine Cahill, Jeff Dunn, Jim Mansbridge, Chris Rathbone, Ken Ridgway also: Neil White, Ian Barton, Peter Turner, Glen Smith, Ken Suber, Susan Wijffels, Ann Gronell, Helen Phillips, Peter Campbell my predecessors:John Wilkin, Scott Condie BlueLink PI: Andreas Schiller externals: BoM, RAN, WASTAC, WA DOT, ACRES, MHL, QldEPA, NASA, NOAA, ESA, AOML

10 Dec 2004 Events of October 2004 Mayday call at 2:15pm 23 Oct – man overboard 120nm east of Moreton Island

10 Dec 2004 Events of October 2004 Mayday call at 2:15pm 23 Oct – man overboard 120nm east of Moreton Island 1 helo, 4F/W, 2 vessels fail to find him by sundown

10 Dec 2004 Events of October 2004 Mayday call at 2:15pm 23 Oct – man overboard 120nm east of Moreton Island 1 helo, 4F/W, 2 vessels fail to find him by sundown AMSA assume control and next morning Andrew Bartholomew was found 18nm SE of splash, after 18h at sea, in centre of search area

10 Dec 2004 Events of October 2004 Mayday call at 2:15pm 23 Oct – man overboard 120nm east of Moreton Island 1 helo, 4F/W, 2 vessels fail to find him by sundown AMSA assume control and next morning Andrew Bartholomew was found 18nm SE of splash, after 18h at sea, in centre of search area Search area delineated using latest sea level map (downloaded daily from CMR ftp site) combined with wind-drift.

10 Dec 2004 Events of October 2004 Mayday call at 2:15pm 23 Oct – man overboard 120nm east of Moreton Island 1 helo, 4F/W, 2 vessels fail to find him by sundown AMSA assume control and next morning Andrew Bartholomew was found 18nm SE of splash, after 18h at sea, in centre of search area Search area delineated using latest sea level map (downloaded daily from CMR ftp site) combined with wind-drift. The first instance, worldwide, of a life saved by altimetry?

10 Dec 2004 Events of October 2004 Mayday call at 2:15pm 23 Oct – man overboard 120nm east of Moreton Island 1 helo, 4F/W, 2 vessels fail to find him by sundown AMSA assume control and next morning Andrew Bartholomew was found 18nm SE of splash, after 18h at sea, in centre of search area Search area delineated using latest sea level map (downloaded daily from CMR ftp site) combined with wind-drift. The first instance, worldwide, of a life saved by altimetry? Unfortunately, the details tell a different story

10 Dec 2004 AMSA’s SARTRAK screen for 24 Oct

10 Dec 2004

How come the search was in the right place? At the time of the rescue, it was thought –Mr Bartholomew was in the water in a life jacket –The current was to the SE

10 Dec 2004 How come the search was in the right place? At the time of the rescue, it was thought –Mr Bartholomew was in the water in a life jacket –The current was to the SE Subsequently, we learnt that –he was in a liferaft, ie more subject to the NW winds –The current was near zero

10 Dec 2004 How come the search was in the right place? At the time of the rescue, it was thought –Mr Bartholomew was in the water in a life jacket –The current was to the SE Subsequently, we learnt that –he was in a liferaft, ie more subject to the NW winds –The current was near zero So it appears we got it right for the wrong reasons

10 Dec 2004 Lesson (no surprise, really) The lag, presently about 4 days, between the latest altimetric sea level map and real-time, is a problem.

10 Dec 2004 Lesson (no surprise, really) The lag, presently about 4 days, between the latest altimetric sea level map and real-time, is a problem. In this case, the overnight change in the altimetric velocity estimate equalled the rms variability at that point.

10 Dec 2004 solutions Reduce the latency of the analysed map –Needs more altimeters –in fact the number is likely to reduce for the foreseeable future

10 Dec 2004 solutions Reduce the latency of the analysed map –Needs more altimeters –in fact the number is likely to reduce for the foreseeable future Use other types of ocean data –SST observations can be made synoptically –Cloudy skies prevailed, on this occasion –For the continental margins, CODAR is emerging as the most promising technology

10 Dec 2004 solutions Reduce the latency of the analysed map –Needs more altimeters –in fact the number is likely to reduce for the foreseeable future Use other types of ocean data –SST observations can be made synoptically –Cloudy skies prevailed, on this occasion –For the continental margins, CODAR is emerging as the most promising technology Use physics to turn recent observations into ocean nowcasts (and short-term forecasts) –This is what the rest of Bluelink is all about

10 Dec 2004 Let me backup… was the golden age of altimetry, with four altimeters flying.

10 Dec 2004 Let me backup… was the golden age of altimetry, with four altimeters flying. Unless the wide-swath is embarked on Jason-2 in 2008, this data density will not be reached again for many years.

10 Dec 2004

Conclusions With 4 altimeters and many radiometers flying, and Argo well underway, ocean observation has never been better.

10 Dec 2004 Conclusions With 4 altimeters and many radiometers flying, and Argo well underway, ocean observation has never been better. But, as demonstrated recently, its not yet safe to fall over the side.

10 Dec 2004 Conclusions With 4 altimeters and many radiometers flying, and Argo well underway, ocean observation has never been better. But, as demonstrated recently, its not yet safe to fall over the side. BlueLink, along with other GODAE projects, aims to show that operational oceanography is feasible, and worthwhile

10 Dec 2004 Conclusions With 4 altimeters and many radiometers flying, and Argo well underway, ocean observation has never been better. But, as demonstrated recently, its not yet safe to fall over the side. BlueLink, along with other GODAE projects, aims to show that operational oceanography is feasible, and worthwhile The Regional Analysis is an early product of Bluelink that –Gives potential users a taste of what’s to come –Provides a benchmark for the model to beat

10 Dec 2004 Final word “Use it or lose it”

10 Dec 2004 Final word “Use it or lose it” Stakeholders, internationally, have not kept up with the rapid advances in ocean observation and modelling.

10 Dec 2004 Final word “Use it or lose it” Stakeholders, internationally, have not kept up with the rapid advances in ocean observation and modelling. By being relatively advanced in uptake, Australia can play an important role in ensuring that oceanography survives the risky transition from the research to operational environments

10 Dec 2004 Final word “Use it or lose it” Stakeholders, internationally, have not kept up with the rapid advances in ocean observation and modelling. By being relatively advanced in uptake, Australia can play an important role in ensuring that oceanography survives the risky transition from the research to operational environments We need to foster use of ocean information in order to demonstrate societal benefit

10 Dec 2004 Final word “Use it or lose it” Stakeholders, internationally, have not kept up with the rapid advances in ocean observation and modelling. By being relatively advanced in uptake, Australia can play an important role in ensuring that oceanography survives the risky transition from the research to operational environments We need to foster use of ocean information in order to demonstrate societal benefit Dissemination of data is becoming really easy.

10 Dec 2004 Final word “Use it or lose it” Stakeholders, internationally, have not kept up with the rapid advances in ocean observation and modelling. By being relatively advanced in uptake, Australia can play an important role in ensuring that oceanography survives the risky transition from the research to operational environments We need to foster use of ocean information in order to demonstrate societal benefit Dissemination of data is becoming really easy. Legal and commercial considerations are not.

10 Dec 2004 Thank you