What is Causing the Lower Aviation Accident/Incident Rate? Can We Correlate Improved Safety Records to the Global Safety Agenda? Cooperative Efforts Are Driving Down the Accident Rate Robert Matthews, Ph.D Michael Romanowski, Ph.D. U.S./Europe International Safety Conference Philadelphia June , 2004 What is Causing the Lower Aviation Accident/Incident Rate? Can We Correlate Improved Safety Records to the Global Safety Agenda? Cooperative Efforts Are Driving Down the Accident Rate Robert Matthews, Ph.D. FAA Office of Accident Investigation Michael Romanowski, Ph.D. Aerospace Industries Association U.S./Europe International Safety Conference Philadelphia June , 2004

Accident Rate Fatal Accident Rate Note: 2004 is based on a pro-rata of data through May, US Part 121-Type Operations 1946 To 2004 Accident rates in US and Western Europe have dropped dramatically over the years Accidents Per Million Flight Hours Current accident rates are incredibly low Challenge is to drive them lower

Radar introduced at selected towers Vickers-700 Turboprop (1953 in UK, 1856 US) DC-7 (1955), Lockheed Electra Radio contact, ATC centers & cruise aircraft Part 121-Type Operations 1946 To 2003 New fleet (L-049, DC-6 & B-377) Earliest ILS (Glide slope, LOC & markers) First VOR (1950), then DME Long-Range radar (Centers) Jet Engine; 707 (1958) & DC-8 VOR/DME integrated into autopilot (precision approaches) Secondary radar RNAV (processing VOR/DME & basic Instruments) GPWS, TCAS Early automation FMS Wind shear detection CRM & 6-Axis simulator & FDR Cabin safety Flight envelope protection Major Fatal Accidents Per Million Departures Year History shows new capabilities & appropriately focused actions reduce accident rate FOQA/ASAP programs Large-scale RJ insertion Cooperative safety agendas

Turboprops ≤ 34 seats Turboprops > 34 seats Last new order (for 10) Nov ‘97 Regional Jets US Part 121 In-service fleet EOY 2004 is projected, based on Airclaims data through May 13, Introduction of regional jets illustrates the dynamic system

Years Number of Fatal Mid-airs Focused action and new capability dramatically reduced mid-air collisions

Focused action led to dramatic reduction in wind shear accidents Wind Shear Accidents 727 New Orleans 7/9/ Doha 3/14/79 DC-9 Philadelphia 6/23/ Denver 8/7/ Pago 1/30/74 DC-9 Charlotte 7/2/94 L1011 Dallas-ft. Worth 8/2/85 DC-10 Faro 12/21/ Training/ Pilot Guide R Reactive Wind shear Systems Predictive Wind shear Systems Enhancements

year running average Cooperative efforts are bringing accident rate down Hull Loss Accident Rate Worldwide Commercial Jets (>60,000 lbs, non-CIS) Through 31 December 2002 FSFCFIT/ALAR Industry effort starts CAST/JSSIbegins PAASTbegins Rate per million departures Rate per million departures

Hull Loss & Fatal Accidents Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan (2007 Implementation Values) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Total LOC Flt CFIT Fire/Explosion Runway Collision LOC GND Midair Crew Inc Eng-UCEF Sys-Comp Turbulence Evac Portion of Risk Risk Eliminated Risk Remaining CAST Fatal/Hull Loss Dataset – Security events excluded. Fully implementing the CAST plan will lead to a 73% overall risk reduction by 2007

CAST Goals l Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007 l Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate

* Representing GE and RR ** Observer AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing P&W* RAA FSF CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively develop & implement a prioritized safety agenda Industry Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST) Government DOD FAA Aircraft Certification Flight Standards System Safety Air Traffic Operations Research NASA ICAO** JAA TCC NATCA** NTSB** IATA** AAPA** ATAC** APFA**

Safety enhancement development Master safety plan Enhancement effectiveness Future areas of study Data analyses CAST Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT) Joint Safety Implementation Teams (JSIT) Joint Implementation Measurement Data Analysis Team (JIMDAT) Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

Generic model for achieving long term accident rate reduction Training SOPs Maximize existing systems Proactive data management Design solutions Accident Rate Time

Robust CAST Methodology l Detailed event sequence - problem identification from worldwide accidents and incidents  CVR  DFDR  NTSB reports, etc. l Broad based teams (45-50 specialists/team) l > 800 problem statements l 752 interventions proposed l Packaged into 87 system enhancements l Analyzed for effectiveness and synergy l 47 enhancements adopted

CAST process led to integrated strategic safety plan l Part 121 or equivalent passenger and cargo operations studied l Current CAST plan:  47 Prioritized Safety Enhancements  8 R&D projects and 2 studies  Projected 73% fatality risk reduction by 2007 l Industry and Government implementing plan  ATA (20 operators), RAA (47), NACA (13) plus non-aligned (35)

Resources vs. risk reduction highlights the need for prioritized approach Completed + Plan (2007 Implementation Level) Completed + Plan (2020 Implementation Level) All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020 Implementation Level) Resource Cost ($ Billions) Risk Reduction Total Cost in $ (Millions) APPROVED PLAN 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Risk Eliminated Completed CAST-050 $ $ $ $ $

Dollars/Flt. Cyc Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle 73% Fatality Risk Reduction Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle Or ~ $620 Million Dollars/Year Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST 2007 levels Cost Savings Prioritized safety makes good economic sense

CAST Safety Plan l 25 Completed Safety Enhancements  Safety Culture  Maintenance Procedures  Flight Crew Training  Air Traffic Controller Training  Uncontained Engine Failures  Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS)  Standard Operating Procedures  Precision Approaches  Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems  Proactive Safety Programs (e.g., FOQA, ASAP)

CAST Safety Plan (cont.) l 21 Committed Safety Enhancements  Policies and Procedures  Aircraft Design  Flight Crew Training (additional aspects)  Runway Incursion Prevention  Precision Approaches (additional projects) l 8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies

PAI/RNP will lead to large safety & efficiency improvements l Performance-based NAS: Communication, Navigation & Surveillance with much greater accuracy & reliability than system has today  Most profound change in near future  Enable precisely defined, computer generated flight path  Tightly defined envelope - unprecedented accuracy  Performance requirements will vary for airspace and phase of flight more efficient use of en-route & terminal airspace  Increased capacity reduced separation new approaches enabled  Time & fuel savings Key elements of Performance-based NAS & CAST initiatives

PAI/RNP will lead to large safety & efficiency improvements CAST PAI/RNP enhancements l Supports Performance-based NAS l Individual safety contribution: 15% reduction in risk for US when fully implemented l Targets CFIT and Loss of Control type accidents l Exploit aircraft’s inherent capability – Classic, standard or advanced aircraft l Vertical Angles – applicable to all aircraft regardless of technology  Eliminate step-down approach  Enable improved “constant angle/constant rate” approach  Fosters stabilized approaches and descents to the runway  Approved approaches established at 84% of US airports Key elements of Performance-based NAS & CAST initiatives

PAI/RNP will lead to large safety & efficiency improvements CAST PAI/RNP enhancements l Three-dimensional navigational (3D RNAV) – Standard and advanced airplanes  Increased precision  Minimums & charting specs - to allow for improved stabilized descents to runways. l Required Navigational Performance (RNP) – Advanced airplanes  Guidance to allow airlines to use reduced landing minimums on all properly-equipped airplanes  Extension of these procedures will reduce the risk of an accident from impact with terrain while on descent improve the ability of airplanes to land in marginal conditions. l xLS – All airplanes  Requirements for the installation of laterally- and vertically-guided approach paths being developed  For runways currently without an Instrument Landing System (ILS). xLS approaches will provide improved safety during landing Key elements of Performance-based NAS & CAST initiatives

CAST metrics to ensure implementation and effectiveness; identify areas for additional action Identify Prioritize Resolve Monitor CAST entered loop in 1997/98 Frequency Time Emerging risk due to system change Exploiting FOQA-type data can bring powerful system benefits

Summary l History shows focused action and introduction of new capabilities led to large accident rate reduction l CAST enhancements focus a resource-effective strategy to maximize accident rate reduction  Implementation well along  73% reduction expected by 2007  40-50% reduction estimated to date  Transition to detailed data sharing will lead to further safety benefits l U.S. experiencing a 78% reduction in commercial fatal accident rate from the 1997 baseline l More metrics required to establish firm linkage between CAST program and demonstrated accident rate reduction l However, circumstance suggests there is a correlation

Cooperative safety agendas are flourishing around the world CAST 46 SEs 25 complete 21 in work 73% reduction PAAST CFIT, ALAR & RI SE-23 + JSSI 35 SEs 5 SEs to EASA 11 complete 62% reduction ASETUnderway COSCAP CIS Underway COSCAP NA, SA, SEA 9 SEs on plan 9 SEs on plan 4 SEs in review 4 SEs in review We encourage everyone to support these worthwhile activities